Morgan Stanley: Siri delays mean fewer Apple iPhone sales this year and next year, too
Following reports that a new, more useful Siri won’t be out till 2027, Morgan Stanley has lowered its Apple iPhone sales estimates for calendar years 2025 and 2026, by 1% and 5%, respectively. Analysts now expect flat sales this year (230 million) and 6% growth next year (243 million), “implying a flatter replacement cycle curve.” They wrote that “an upgraded Siri personal assistant” is the “#1 AI feature prospective iPhone upgraders are interested in when upgrading.”
The analysts also said tariffs on Chinese goods will weigh on the company’s profits, lowering their earnings per share estimate to $8 from $8.52 in fiscal year 2026.
“...while we believe Apple is taking actions to help mitigate tariffs, it’s unlikely that Apple can fully offset this cost without broad tariff exemptions, which have not been granted,” Morgan Stanley wrote.