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Sam Altman at Italian Tech Week 2024
Sam Altman at Italian Tech Week 2024 (Stefano Guidi/Getty Images)

Altman: Artificial general intelligence will arrive during Trump’s time

The OpenAI CEO admitted to moving the goalposts as to what that means, however.

Jon Keegan

In a wide-ranging interview with Bloomberg, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman reflected on his tumultuous leadership during the young company’s most consequential moments, and shed light on the progress of company’s quest for its Holy Grail: AGI, or artificial general intelligence.

Filling in some details of early OpenAI lore, Altman decided to release the first version of ChatGPT against the advice of his team:

“‘Why are you making us launch this? It’s a bad decision. It’s not ready.’ I don't make a lot of ‘we’re gonna do this thing’ decisions, but this was one of them.”

Altman said he told the team, “I think we have something on our hands that we do not appreciate here.”

Defining exactly what AGI means is slippery, and Altman admits to moving the goalposts.

“Can it start as a computer program and decide it wants to become a doctor? Can it do what the best people in the field can do or the 98th percentile? How autonomous is it? I don’t have deep, precise answers there yet, but if you could hire an AI as a remote employee to be a great software engineer, I think a lot of people would say, ‘OK, that’s AGI-ish.’”

Altman predicted that AGI will be achieved during the new Trump admin, and he didn’t make much of his $1 million personal donation to Trump’s inaugural committee. “He’s the president of the United States. I support any president.”

That said, he did not donate to Biden’s inauguration.

When asked about the potential risks of ChatGPT’s misuse, such as being used to develop bioweapons, Altman wants to move fast and break things:

“I can simultaneously think that these risks are real and also believe that the only way to appropriately address them is to ship product and learn.”

Altman said the company has been working hard with partners like Nvidia to secure enough GPUs for its voracious computing needs, and is working on its own chips as well.

As for powering all these energy-hungry data centers that OpenAI relies on, Altman would prefer to use nuclear fusion, which has yet to be commercialized at scale (though Altman is bullish on his fusion startup, Helion).

Altman’s recent squabbles with OpenAI cofounder Elon Musk have drawn a lot of attention, including Musk’s lawsuits seeking to block OpenAI’s restructuring to a for-profit company.

When asked about the threat of Musk’s newfound power as Trump’s adviser and buddy:

“The question was, will he abuse his political power of being co-president, or whatever he calls himself now, to mess with a business competitor? I don’t think he’ll do that. I genuinely don’t. May turn out to be proven wrong.”

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8%

Some 8% of kids ages 5-12 have interacted with AI chatbots like OpenAI’s ChatGPT or Google’s Gemini, according to a new Pew Research Center survey of their parents. While that’s nowhere near the usage rates of other devices like smartphones or even voice assistants, it’s still notable for a relatively new technology — especially one that’s already had devastating consequences for young people.

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Ives says he’s “relatively disappointed” in the price point of lower-cost Tesla models

On Tuesday, Tesla unveiled its long-awaited lower-cost cars, which turned out to be downgraded versions of the existing Model Y and Model 3. Tesla bull and Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives wasn’t particularly impressed with the price point, noting that it’s “still relatively high versus other vehicles on the market.”

The Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard cost about $40,000 and $37,000, respectively. That’s more than the Model Y Premium and Model 3 Premium — what previous editions (or “trim levels”) are now called — cost last month, before the US federal government’s $7,500 tax credit expired. And the Standard models are missing a lot of Premium features, including Autopilot, second-row screens, and Tesla’s iconic glass roofs, among numerous other downgrades.

In other words, Tesla buyers will now be paying more for less, in what amounts to car-sized shrinkflation.

The stock closed down 4.5% yesterday on the news.

Ives doesn’t think it’s the end of the world but is “disappointed” in the price tag:

“We believe the launch of a lower cost model represents the first step to getting back to a ~500k quarterly delivery run-rate which will be important to stimulate demand for its fleet with the EV tax credit expiring at the end of September but we are relatively disappointed with this launch as the price point is only $5k lower than prior Model 3’s and Y’s.”

tech

Nvidia helps boost xAI funding round to $20 billion

xAI’s latest funding round has now doubled to $20 billion from $10 billion a month ago, thanks in part to backing from Nvidia, which invested $2 billion in the equity portion of the transaction, Bloomberg reports. In an interview with CNBC, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang confirmed the investment, adding that his “only regret” was that he didn’t give xAI more money.

The mix of $7.5 billion in equity and $12.5 billion in debt will finance a special purpose vehicle that will purchase Nvidia chips that xAI will then rent. It’s one of many circular AI deals these days that’s contributing to chatter over an AI bubble by some, while being seen by others as a rational way for industry leaders to boost the potential size of the addressable market and lift their longer-term prospects in the process.

Investors in Elon Musk’s other company, Tesla, will vote next month at the company’s annual shareholder meeting on whether to invest in xAI as well — an outcome Musk has he said supports.

The mix of $7.5 billion in equity and $12.5 billion in debt will finance a special purpose vehicle that will purchase Nvidia chips that xAI will then rent. It’s one of many circular AI deals these days that’s contributing to chatter over an AI bubble by some, while being seen by others as a rational way for industry leaders to boost the potential size of the addressable market and lift their longer-term prospects in the process.

Investors in Elon Musk’s other company, Tesla, will vote next month at the company’s annual shareholder meeting on whether to invest in xAI as well — an outcome Musk has he said supports.

$1T
Jon Keegan

In the past few weeks, OpenAI has announced a flurry of massive deals with Oracle, Nvidia, CoreWeave, AMD, and others as hundreds of billions fly between technology partners racing to expand AI infrastructure at unprecedented scale. The Financial Times tallied it all up and found that the company has signed about $1 trillion worth of deals, and it isn’t clear at all that it will be able to fund them.

The “circular” nature of some of these arrangements is also one factor playing into fears that we’re in an AI bubble.

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