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Rani Molla

Tesla and other EV makers may have to say goodbye to $7,500 EV credit sooner than expected

The Senate’s newly released version of President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” might be even worse news for Tesla and the rest of the electric vehicle industry than the initial one. Rather than eliminating the $7,500 EV tax incentive at the end of the year, as was the case in previous versions of the bill, it would now end September 30.

While it’s possible the change could increase Q3 sales, causing would-be buyers to move forward their purchases to take advantage of the tax credit, it would likely hurt Q4 sales, the analyst who goes by Troy Teslike wrote. Analysts are already bracing for an awful Q2 Tesla sales report this week and are expecting full-year deliveries to decline for the second year in a row.

Last year, JD Power found that about two-thirds of premium brand EV owners said tax credits were a main driver in their EV purchase decision.

To combat the loss of incentive, Tesla would likely have to lower prices and take a hit to its margins or deal with lower demand. JPMorgan previously said the pending legislation — both the elimination of EV tax credits and the regulatory credits Tesla sells to other automakers — could threaten half of Tesla’s profits.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk is none too happy.

This weekend he tweeted his dislike of the latest bill, saying it “will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country” and that its clean energy provisions would be “incredibly destructive to America.”

While it’s possible the change could increase Q3 sales, causing would-be buyers to move forward their purchases to take advantage of the tax credit, it would likely hurt Q4 sales, the analyst who goes by Troy Teslike wrote. Analysts are already bracing for an awful Q2 Tesla sales report this week and are expecting full-year deliveries to decline for the second year in a row.

Last year, JD Power found that about two-thirds of premium brand EV owners said tax credits were a main driver in their EV purchase decision.

To combat the loss of incentive, Tesla would likely have to lower prices and take a hit to its margins or deal with lower demand. JPMorgan previously said the pending legislation — both the elimination of EV tax credits and the regulatory credits Tesla sells to other automakers — could threaten half of Tesla’s profits.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk is none too happy.

This weekend he tweeted his dislike of the latest bill, saying it “will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country” and that its clean energy provisions would be “incredibly destructive to America.”

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tech
Jon Keegan

Judge blocks Pentagon’s move to blacklist Anthropic

A federal judge in Northern California has granted a preliminary injunction blocking the Pentagon from labeling Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk.

The ruling temporarily prevents the Defense Department from restricting the AI company’s access to federal contracts amid a dispute over its refusal to allow certain military and surveillance uses of its technology. The designation could also have shifted lucrative government work toward competitors, including OpenAI.

Earlier this month, Anthropic, the company behind Claude, sued 17 federal agencies and their heads, alleging the government exceeded its statutory authority.

tech
Rani Molla

Report: SpaceX’s record IPO may grant preferential access to retail investors and Tesla shareholders

SpaceX’s impending IPO could raise $40 billion to $80 billion and rank as the largest ever — as well as one of the most unconventional.

The Wall Street Journal reports several ways CEO Elon Musk is considering breaking with IPO norms:

  • Investors in his other companies, including Tesla, could receive preferential access to shares.

  • Individual investors may get a third or more of the allocation, far above the typical ~10% mark.

  • Instead of a traditional road show, Musk wants investors to visit SpaceX facilities in person.

  • Investors in his other companies, including Tesla, could receive preferential access to shares.

  • Individual investors may get a third or more of the allocation, far above the typical ~10% mark.

  • Instead of a traditional road show, Musk wants investors to visit SpaceX facilities in person.

tech
Rani Molla

Tesla released estimates for Q1 deliveries and they’re lower than analysts expected

Ahead of first-quarter earnings next month, Tesla released its own company-compiled Wall Street consensus estimate for deliveries: 365,645 vehicles. While that’s lower than the 382,000 FactSet consensus estimate, it represents a nearly 9% jump from Q1 2025, when Tesla sold 336,681 vehicles.

Tesla started releasing its own consensus estimates to the public — not just institutional investors — for the first time in Q4 2025. The move was seen as a way to temper investor expectations, as other estimates were too high. Last quarter, Tesla’s compilation was closer to actual numbers, which fell 16% year over year.

The market-implied odds from event contracts suggest 64% of traders think Tesla’s Q1 deliveries will be more than 350,000, 44% think it will be higher than 360,000, and just 21% have it at higher than 370,000.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.