Tesla delivery numbers are out this week. Analysts think it will be a bloodbath.
Analysts on average are expecting Tesla’s biggest year-over-year quarterly decline ever.
Tesla is reporting its Q2 deliveries Wednesday — and judging from leading indicators and analyst estimates, it’s not looking good for the electric car maker. Monthly sales have been dropping across Tesla’s biggest markets, including the US, China and Europe, as the company contends with its CEO’s political fallout, increased competition and an aging lineup of cars. The company’s mostly successful robotaxi launch last week isn’t likely to move the needle on vehicle sales, which make up the lion’s share of Tesla’s revenue. After all, the launch only includes 10 to 20 sort-of autonomous cars whose technology is not yet available on the wider Tesla fleet.
Last year, Tesla delivered 444,000 cars in Q2. After lowering their estimates throughout the quarter this year, analysts think Q2 2025 will look much worse.
Bloomberg currently pegs the analyst consensus at 391,000, 12% lower than last year.
FactSet’s consensus estimate is 387,000, 13% lower.
JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman said today he’s lowered the estimate he made around the time of Q1 earnings from 395,000 to an even lower 360,000, 19% below last year.
An analyst who goes by Troy Teslike and is often correct on these matters has continually lowered his estimate over the quarter, having started at 412,000 and now revised it down to 355,000, which would be 20% lower than last year.
That’s a spread of 53,000 to 89,000 fewer Teslas sold in Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024 — all of which would represent Tesla’s biggest quarterly decline ever.
Of course, terrible sales in the second quarter, following terrible sales in the first quarter, doesn’t bode well for the full year. Considering that the government will likely take away federal $7,500 EV tax credits, hurting demand, the back half of the year could be worse.
Analysts expect Tesla’s full-year sales to decline for the second year in a row, with the FactSet consensus currently reflecting a 6% drop for 2025 compared to 2024. On average, they expect Tesla will sell 1.68 million cars this year, down from 1.79 million last year. The company sold 1.81 million in 2023.
