Guy waving an American flag in a tiny Tesla Cybertruck

A person waving a US flag drives a toy Tesla Cybertruck (Frederic J. Brown/Getty Images)

Tesla delivery numbers are out this week. Analysts think it will be a bloodbath.

Analysts on average are expecting Tesla’s biggest year-over-year quarterly decline ever.

6/30/25 9:36AM

Tesla is reporting its Q2 deliveries Wednesday — and judging from leading indicators and analyst estimates, it’s not looking good for the electric car maker. Monthly sales have been dropping across Tesla’s biggest markets, including the US, China and Europe, as the company contends with its CEO’s political fallout, increased competition and an aging lineup of cars. The company’s mostly successful robotaxi launch last week isn’t likely to move the needle on vehicle sales, which make up the lion’s share of Tesla’s revenue. After all, the launch only includes 10 to 20 sort-of autonomous cars whose technology is not yet available on the wider Tesla fleet.

Last year, Tesla delivered 444,000 cars in Q2. After lowering their estimates throughout the quarter this year, analysts think Q2 2025 will look much worse.

Bloomberg currently pegs the analyst consensus at 391,000, 12% lower than last year.
FactSet’s consensus estimate is 387,000, 13% lower.
JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman said today he’s lowered the estimate he made around the time of Q1 earnings from 395,000 to an even lower 360,000, 19% below last year.
An analyst who goes by Troy Teslike and is often correct on these matters has continually lowered his estimate over the quarter, having started at 412,000 and now revised it down to 355,000, which would be 20% lower than last year.

That’s a spread of 53,000 to 89,000 fewer Teslas sold in Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024 — all of which would represent Tesla’s biggest quarterly decline ever.

Of course, terrible sales in the second quarter, following terrible sales in the first quarter, doesn’t bode well for the full year. Considering that the government will likely take away federal $7,500 EV tax credits, hurting demand, the back half of the year could be worse.

Analysts expect Tesla’s full-year sales to decline for the second year in a row, with the FactSet consensus currently reflecting a 6% drop for 2025 compared to 2024. On average, they expect Tesla will sell 1.68 million cars this year, down from 1.79 million last year. The company sold 1.81 million in 2023.

Max Knoblauch22h

Tesla’s 45 Austin Robotaxis now have 14 crashes on the books since launching in June

Since launching in June 2025, Tesla’s 45 Austin Robotaxis have been involved in 14 crashes, per Electrek reporting citing National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data.

Electrek analysis found that the vehicles have traveled roughly 800,000 paid miles in that time period, amounting to a crash every 57,000 miles. According to the NHTSA, US drivers crash once every 500,000 miles on average.

The article says Tesla submitted five new crash reports in January of this year that happened in December and January. Electrek wrote:

“The new crashes include a collision with a fixed object at 17 mph while the vehicle was driving straight, a crash with a bus while the Tesla was stationary, a collision with a heavy truck at 4 mph, and two separate incidents where the Tesla backed into objects, one into a pole or tree at 1 mph and another into a fixed object at 2 mph.”

Tesla updated a previously reported crash that was originally filed as only having damaged property to include a passenger’s hospitalization.

Last month, Tesla shares climbed after CEO Elon Musk said in a post on X that the company’s Austin Robotaxis had begun operating without a safety monitor.

Tesla 'Robotaxi' adds 5 more crashes in Austin in a month — 4x worse than humans

The article says Tesla submitted five new crash reports in January of this year that happened in December and January. Electrek wrote:

“The new crashes include a collision with a fixed object at 17 mph while the vehicle was driving straight, a crash with a bus while the Tesla was stationary, a collision with a heavy truck at 4 mph, and two separate incidents where the Tesla backed into objects, one into a pole or tree at 1 mph and another into a fixed object at 2 mph.”

Tesla updated a previously reported crash that was originally filed as only having damaged property to include a passenger’s hospitalization.

Last month, Tesla shares climbed after CEO Elon Musk said in a post on X that the company’s Austin Robotaxis had begun operating without a safety monitor.

Jon Keegan2/13/26

Ahead of IPO, Anthropic adds veteran executive and former Trump administration official to board

Anthropic is moving to put the pieces in place for a successful IPO this year.

Today, the company announced that Chris Liddel would join its board of directors.

Liddel is an seasoned executive who previously served as CFO for Microsoft, GM, and International Paper.

Liddel also comes with experience in government, having served as the deputy White House chief of staff during the first Trump administration.

Ties to the Trump world could be helpful for Anthropic as it pushes to enter the public market. It’s reportedly not on the greatest terms with the current administration, as the startup has pushed back on using its Claude AI for surveillance applications.

Exclusive | Anthropic Adds New Board Member as It Eyes IPO

Liddel is an seasoned executive who previously served as CFO for Microsoft, GM, and International Paper.

Liddel also comes with experience in government, having served as the deputy White House chief of staff during the first Trump administration.

Rani Molla2/13/26

Meta is bringing back facial recognition for its smart glasses

Meta is reviving its highly controversial facial recognition efforts, with plans to incorporate the tech into its smart glasses as soon as this year, The New York Times reports.

In 2021, around the time Facebook rebranded as Meta, the company shut down the facial recognition software it had used to tag people in photos, saying it needed to “find the right balance.”

Now, according to an internal memo reviewed by the Times, Meta seems to feel that it’s at least found the right moment, noting that the fraught and crowded political climate could allow the feature to attract less scrutiny.

“We will launch during a dynamic political environment where many civil society groups that we would expect to attack us would have their resources focused on other concerns,” the document reads.

The tech, called “Name Tag” internally, would let smart glass wearers identify and surface information about people they see with the glasses by using Meta’s artificial intelligence assistant.

Meta Plans to Add Facial Recognition Technology to Its Smart Glasses

“We will launch during a dynamic political environment where many civil society groups that we would expect to attack us would have their resources focused on other concerns,” the document reads.

The tech, called “Name Tag” internally, would let smart glass wearers identify and surface information about people they see with the glasses by using Meta’s artificial intelligence assistant.

Tom Jones

the elder scrolls

2/13/26

Older Americans are spending more time on their phones than younger cohorts, per new data

Some members of the TikTok generation are (very slightly) less glued to their phones than other adults, it turns out.

A man, a woman and a child with a phone instead of a head

Rani Molla

2/13/26

Apple doesn’t have an AI spending problem. It has an AI execution problem.

Apple isn’t falling far from the AI tree.

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