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Tinder joke
Tinder messaging its users? (Frank Brennan/Getty Images)
LOVE LOST

Tinder changed dating forever — now it’s trying everything, including AI, to hold on to its paying users

Tinder owner Match Group held an investor day this week.

David Crowther

When Tinder burst onto the scene in 2012, it changed — for better or worse — one of the most fundamental human experiences: how people meet their partners, date, and find that special connection. Since then, the company has become the poster child of the dating-app scene, with hundreds of millions of users swiping to their hearts’ content, turning Tinder into a billion-dollar app. But for the past few years, Tinder and its parent company, Match Group, have been working furiously just to stay relevant as the company’s user growth began to slow, go flat, and then turn negative. The last quarter brought some relief, with the company adding paying users to Tinder for the first time since 2022.

Tinder user chart
Sherwood News

With its stock price down 76% since the end of 2021, Match Group — which also owns Hinge, Match.com, and OkCupid — has been under heavy pressure from activist investors to turn things around. Given its size and maturity, Tinder has long been the company’s cash cow, accounting for $2 billion of direct revenue over the last 12 months, nearly 4x what Hinge brought in and ~57% of the company’s total revenue.

But with a declining user base and a reputation for hook-ups rather than long-term connection, how do you turn Tinder around? Match Group execs, like plenty of business leaders before them, are looking to AI as a solution. The company is hoping that “advanced AI” will help people find matches on the platform more easily, with one slide in the company’s presentation showing an AI-powered insight for an “outdoorsy” individual looking to meet someone. It reads: “Kevin’s not into hiking like you, but loves nature and spends time on the open water kayaking” — this powerful insight is gleaned from a picture of Kevin, in which he’s kayaking on the open water.

And it’s not just in the Tinder app that Match Group is hoping to use AI. In the Hinge section of the company’s presentation, Match touts the potential of AI to help “coach struggling users,” helping one user to breezily ask another plant-loving potential match, “What is the latest count of plants in your…”

Hinge AI
Screenshot from the Match Group Investor Day presentation (December 2024)

Match Group shares are down 6% in the last week, despite the announcement of a new $1.5 billion share-buyback authorization and the initiation of a cash dividend to shareholders.

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Rani Molla

After Tesla earnings, prediction markets think unsupervised FSD is less likely than ever to be rolled out this year

Tesla’s unsupervised full self-driving technology, which would autonomously ferry passengers around without a human driver having to pay attention, is supposed to help catapult the electric vehicle company’s valuation further into the stratosphere. It was also supposed to be available this year, but prediction markets participants, as well as former Tesla self-driving leaders, no longer think that will happen.

On Teslas earnings call this week, CEO Elon Musk said the company now had “clarity” on achieving unsupervised full self-driving — something he’s repeatedly said would be available at least in some markets this year.

The comments seemed to give Polymarket prediction markets participants some clarity. There, the market-implied probability that Tesla will release unsupervised FSD this year reached its lowest point since the event contract was opened in May.

The odds of it happening had been pretty high up until late June, when Tesla’s long-awaited robotaxi launched with a safety driver in the passenger seat. The unsupervised FSD event contract specifies the feature can have “no requirement for human intervention.”

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Rani Molla

Banks prepare record $38 billion debt financing to fund Oracle-tied data centers

Banks led by JPMorgan and Mitsubishi UFJ are preparing a $38 billion debt offering to fund two Oracle-tied data centers in Texas and Wisconsin, Bloomberg reports. The projects, developed by Vantage Data Centers, will support Oracle’s $500 billion Stargate AI infrastructure push with OpenAI and Nvidia.

The loans — $23.25 billion for Texas and $14.75 billion for Wisconsin — are expected to mature in four years, price about 2.5 percentage points higher than the benchmark rate, and mark the largest AI infrastructure financing to date.

Oracle executives recently said that the company anticipates cloud gross margins will reach 35% and that it expects to see $166 billion in cloud infrastructure revenue by FY 2030.

Oracle is up 1.5% premarket.

The loans — $23.25 billion for Texas and $14.75 billion for Wisconsin — are expected to mature in four years, price about 2.5 percentage points higher than the benchmark rate, and mark the largest AI infrastructure financing to date.

Oracle executives recently said that the company anticipates cloud gross margins will reach 35% and that it expects to see $166 billion in cloud infrastructure revenue by FY 2030.

Oracle is up 1.5% premarket.

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Rani Molla

Google rises on official announcement of Anthropic deal worth “tens of billions”

Google has made its deal to expand AI compute to Anthropic, reported earlier this week by Bloomberg, official. In order to train and serve its Claude model, Anthropic has agreed to pay Google Cloud “tens of billions of dollars” to access up to 1 million tensor processing units, or TPUs, as well as other cloud services.

Google, of course, has a 14% stake in Anthropic, making this one of the many circular AI deals happening at the moment.

“Anthropic and Google have a longstanding partnership and this latest expansion will help us continue to grow the compute we need to define the frontier of AI,” Anthropic CFO Krishna Rao said in the press release. “Our customers — from Fortune 500 companies to AI-native startups — depend on Claude for their most important work, and this expanded capacity ensures we can meet our exponentially growing demand while keeping our models at the cutting edge of the industry.”

The announcement has sent Google up again, more than 1% premarket.

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Rani Molla

Report: Snap seeking $1 billion to finance its AR glasses division in “existential” fundraise

Snap is down more than 1% this morning following news that the company is attempting to raise $1 billion for its AR glasses unit in what someone told Sources.news was an “existential” fundraise.

A Snap spokesperson countered, “We do not need to raise money to execute against our plans to publicly launch Specs in 2026, but remain open to opportunities that could accelerate our growth.”

Multiple investors are involved in the talks, including Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, according to Sources.news. The report also noted that Snap plans to turn the unit that makes its Specs glasses into an independent subsidiary à la Google’s Waymo “that can continue raising capital from investors.”

Snap plans to produce about 100,000 units of next year’s Specs, pricing them around $2,500.

The beleaguered stock saw quite a bit of retail interest last month, amid r/WallStreetBets chatter that its low nominal price made it a potential acquisition target.

Multiple investors are involved in the talks, including Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, according to Sources.news. The report also noted that Snap plans to turn the unit that makes its Specs glasses into an independent subsidiary à la Google’s Waymo “that can continue raising capital from investors.”

Snap plans to produce about 100,000 units of next year’s Specs, pricing them around $2,500.

The beleaguered stock saw quite a bit of retail interest last month, amid r/WallStreetBets chatter that its low nominal price made it a potential acquisition target.

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