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Apple CEOs John Ternus and Tim Cook
Apple

What analysts want from Apple’s new CEO

John Ternus is known for his decisiveness, and he needs to make some big decisions on AI.

Rani Molla

On Monday, Apple announced that longtime CEO Tim Cook would soon be passing the helm to hardware SVP John Ternus — a widely anticipated choice, though earlier than expected. Here’s what some of the biggest Apple analysts and watchers are saying about Ternus and the transition.

IDC’s Francisco Jeronimo:

“The appointment of John Ternus as CEO signals a deliberate choice by Apple to prioritise continuity and execution over radical change. Ternus has spent his career at Apple working on the products most central to its identity, from iPhone and iPad to Mac and, more recently, the silicon transition. Few people inside or outside the company understand Apple’s product architecture as well as he does. The short and medium-term business is probably in safe hands... What Apple needs from Ternus now is not just technical execution but strategic conviction on AI. The products will be fine. The platform question is the one that will define his legacy.”

Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives: While Cook’s departure will be “a shock to the system in Cupertino,” Ives sees three ways in which Ternus can “define his own path and the future success of Apple.” Those include AI (“Apple is a toll collector on the consumer AI highway and Ternus needs to finally get the AI strategy right and focus on monetization going forward”), hardware and innovation (“innovation going forward around foldable phones, an AI enabled smartphone, new sleeker/affordable Apple Glasses, and future hardware developments will be the hearts and lungs of Apples success”), and maintaining the “Cupertino culture... but bring in more outsiders and M&A.”

Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman:

“To succeed, Ternus will need to keep what works — operational discipline and calm leadership — while breaking from the consensus-driven decision-making that has defined Cook’s tenure. He will also need to move faster, sharpen Apple’s competitiveness in AI and deliver new hardware hits.”

JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee:

“We view the announcement positively with the elevation of a product/hardware focussed executive to the top role, particularly given the backdrop of intense market competition to deliver next generation form factors within smartphones and beyond smartphones that can potentially be the medium of wide-scale AI consumption, while also benefiting from Cook’s leadership with policymakers globally.

Key areas on top of mind for investors with this transition, although not a complete surprise, would be: 1) continuation of the best-in-class execution that has been hallmark of Tim Cooks leadership, with the transition to new leadership; 2) position of Services in the overall order of priorities from new leadership with a background focused on hardware innovation; 3) updates and potential changes in AI strategy, where investors are also awaiting the launch of a more personalized Siri, potentially going into WWDC later this year.”

Citi’s Atif Malik:

“While the timing of the succession appears somewhat earlier than many had expected, Ternus was front runner for the job, in our view. As Ternus is an experienced hardware executive, investors will likely focus on new products and form factors, but more importantly, how will Ternus accelerate Apple’s progress in AI. Key areas to watch include: long-promised Siri revamp, Apple’s in-house LLM development, deeper AI ecosystem integration and monetization, and potential new categories such as smart glasses.”

Mark Newman, Bernstein:

“We view this news as positive for the stock for three key reasons: 1. It ends months of uncertainty on the leadership transition due to recent speculation; 2. Cook isn’t going anywhere, he is staying on as Executive Chairman to help ensure a smooth transition; and 3. Given Ternus’ role in hardware innovation, could we see a bit more of an acceleration in product innovation such as smart glasses etc.?”

HSBCs Nicolas Cote-Colisson:

“Given his hardware background, we would expect Mr Ternus to continue with the vision of product innovation at Apple. We note that the product line-up is strong, with a book-style foldable iPhone, which has entered trial production stage. Apple is also working on four designs for smart glasses for 2027, along with a new 20th anniversary special iPhone edition.”

Oppenheimers Martin Yang:

“We look favorably upon the announcements. Apple is moving into a new era for consumer hardware where on-device inference and edge AI capabilities may create new use cases, form factors, and even new device categories. Ternus and Srouji’s elevated positions ensure Apple’s core competency in product design is preserved, if not improved, with the same playbook (integrated silicon/hw/sw) that have worked increasingly well since Apple Silicon was introduced in 2020.”

Evercore ISI’s Amit Daryanani:

“While executive changes at Apple are rare, we think the appointment of John Ternus as CEO makes sense given the company’s history of leadership rooted in the core hardware business, particularly the iPhone. We don’t expect any material change in Apple’s NT strategy, though we’re encouraged by the potential for new AI features, particularly alongside the next wave of product launches this fall.”

Martin Peers, The Information:

“The worry for shareholders is that Ternus, who has spent most of his life at Apple and who described Cook in today’s announcement as a mentor, will continue on the cautious course Cook has been pursuing. In this report about Apple’s succession, we cited critics saying Ternus was too risk averse. As good as Cook has been for Apple, the company arguably needs fresher blood.”

And, for what it’s worth, my take:

Keep being different, Apple! As the rest of Big Tech trips over themselves to spend as much as inhumanly possible on AI, Apple should keep its capex low and its options open. There’s no need to spend all your hard-earned money on AI when you can continue tapping into your competitors’ investments and distributing those across your huge installed base.

One word of advice, though: actually pick and stick with an AI — or at least make it feel that way to users. Currently, Siri asks if you’d like to use ChatGPT for questions it can’t answer. Just do it — or use Gemini or whatever assistant you want by default. Ask for permission only when it truly matters. No one wants that friction.

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FT: Anthropic staff helping the NSA use Mythos for offensive cyberattacks

Anthropic’s Mythos AI model was deemed too dangerous to release to the public, with the company citing its ability to orchestrate novel cyberattacks.

And that’s just what the National Security Agency is doing, with the help of Anthropic staff embedded at the agency, according to a report from the Financial Times.

Only a small number of companies and US allies have been given access to the advanced model, which means America’s adversaries have not had the chance to shore up their defenses against the AI model’s new offensive capabilities.

The arrangement is especially unusual as the Pentagon has deemed Anthropic’s AI a national security supply chain risk — effectively blacklisting it for defense work — in response to the company’s refusal to allow its technology to be used for any legal application, which could include autonomous killing or mass surveillance. Anthropic is currently suing the US government to fight the determination.

Only a small number of companies and US allies have been given access to the advanced model, which means America’s adversaries have not had the chance to shore up their defenses against the AI model’s new offensive capabilities.

The arrangement is especially unusual as the Pentagon has deemed Anthropic’s AI a national security supply chain risk — effectively blacklisting it for defense work — in response to the company’s refusal to allow its technology to be used for any legal application, which could include autonomous killing or mass surveillance. Anthropic is currently suing the US government to fight the determination.

tech

Longtime Tesla bear JPMorgan upgraded Tesla and raised its price target to $475 from $145

For more than a decade, JPMorgan was Wall Streets most stubborn Tesla skeptic, anchored by auto analyst Ryan Brinkman’s strict focus on traditional car fundamentals and near-term delivery numbers.

But JPM recently handed coverage of the stock to a new analyst, Rajat Gupta, who is throwing that playbook out the window. In a note Friday, the firm upgraded Tesla to neutral from underweight and raised its price target 228% to $475 from $145. (The analyst consensus on FactSet is $403.) Instead of focusing on the company’s struggling vehicle business, the new analyst is orienting himself more toward Tesla’s idea of the future, now modeling Tesla’s physical AI and robotaxi fleets all the way out to the year 2040.

Here are the main reasons for the capitulation:

  • Looking past the car lot: Gupta argues that Tesla is at the forefront of physical AI, entering uncharted TAMs” and therefore deserves the benefit of the doubt to be valued on LT earnings potential rather than near-term speed bumps.

  • Unmatched vertical integration: Teslas control over everything from battery cells to custom silicon gives it a massive moat. JPM notes this starting point advantage is unmatched at an industrial level scale” and “still somewhat under-appreciated and misunderstood.

  • The AWS flywheel effect: Deploying Optimus robots inside its own factories should not only lower COGS for the base automotive business, but more importantly, help validate the product at an industrial scale.” Gupta called it “a classic flywheel effect, somewhat analogous to AWS and Kiva at AMZN.

For Tesla bulls who have argued for years that this is an AI company and not a carmaker, JPM’s sudden $3.9 trillion valuation model is the ultimate validation.

skynet terminator

Anthropic ponders self-improving AI

Anthropic says Claude already writes 80% of its code. A new post asks what happens when the models can improve themselves — and whether anyone could stop them.

tech

ChatGPT hit 1 billion users nearly twice as fast as TikTok did

It took Facebook and Instagram around eight years; it took YouTube just over six; even TikTok, which at the time felt like it was a global sensation almost as soon as it arrived, took more than half a decade.

Now, though, the mobile version of ChatGPT has positively left the biggest platforms (and all of your other favorite apps) in the dust, hitting 1 billion monthly active users in just three years, per new data from market intelligence firm Sensor Tower, as more users turn to OpenAI’s chatbot each month.

ChatGPT 1 billion users chart
Sherwood News

While rival Anthropic might be pulling ahead in terms of annualized recurring revenue, enterprise customer adoption, and valuation, the app version of Claude, a market-leading chatbot on several counts, has clocked only 56 million monthly active users in the quarter to date.

In fact, according to Abe Yousef, a senior insights analyst at Sensor Tower, ChatGPT’s monthly active user count for the quarter to date outweighs the figures for Claude, Gemini (472 million), Doubao (106 million), Dola (78 million), DeepSeek (68 million), Meta AI (61 million), Grok (50 million), Perplexity (44 million), and Copilot (31 million)... combined.

ChatGPT made a pretty big splash in the tech world when it landed toward the end of 2022, but there’s no question that the mobile versions — which launched on iOS in May 2023, then on Android a couple months later — helped to catapult the chatbot into the mainstream proper.

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