Jobless claims: The US economy seems to be heading in the right direction, even if we're a long way from normal

There was some good news for the US economy yesterday as weekly unemployment claims fell to their lowest level since the pandemic started. All told some 576,000 people filed for unemployment claims last week, which is less than one-tenth the number from almost exactly one year ago, when a record-breaking 6.15 million people filed.

It's possible that the vaccination drive, coupled with loosening restrictions, is leading to more business confidence in hiring — and maintaining — employees. Having said that, even 576,000 claims is an amount that would have looked huge had it come during pre-pandemic times. In 2019 the biggest week for unemployment claims was just 238,000, with weekly variations so minimal that they are barely even visible on this chart.

Elsewhere in the US economy, retail sales data revealed a jump of almost 10% — the largest rise in retail spending since May of last year. Things are going in the right direction, but we're still a long way from "normal".