Bitcoin flirts with key $75,000 level on hopes of an Iran deal
Several analysts argue that for bitcoin to have truly turned a corner and break from the tight range it’s been stuck in, a sustained rally above the $75,000 level is needed.
Bitcoin is hovering just below $75,000 early Tuesday, a key psychological and structural level that hasn’t hit in nearly a month. The asset is up 5.3% in the past 24 hours and more than 9% so far in April, the highest monthly return since May 2025, according to CoinGlass.
Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue, told Sherwood News that bitcoin is surging toward $75,000 on a geopolitics-fueled relief rally.
“US-Iran ceasefire/de-escalation news drove oil prices lower, eased inflation fears, and sparked risk-on sentiment, triggering a sharp short squeeze that wiped out hundreds of millions in leveraged bear positions,” Adziima said, adding that this move is mostly positioning unwind and macro relief, not fresh fundamentals.
“Fragile, sustained ceasefire or ETF demand could extend it, but renewed tensions or profit-taking may reverse it fast,” Adziima said.
Analysts have argued that for bitcoin to have a clear break from the tight range it has been trading in for weeks, a rally above the $75,000 level is needed, but the risk-on sentiment currently appears timid.
Justin D’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Sherwood, “While the S&P 500 is moving toward its all-time high, it does feel like BTC and crypto markets overall have more way to go.”
Ishmael Asad, research analyst at Bitwise, said a move beyond $75,000 may signify bitcoin is finally headed beyond the range it’s been stuck in for over two months.
Yet he added that, overall, markets seem to be trying to gauge the severity of the situation in Iran.
“Having digested the initial shock from last week’s events, the market may be taking an optimistic turn this week, pending any more headlines,” Asad said.
Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs have reverted to outflows, with a $291.11 million exodus on Monday, while last week’s $786.31 million in inflows marked their best week since February 27, SoSoValue data shows.
Max Kahn, CEO of Digital Wealth Partners, told Sherwood that beyond macro factors, structural demand remains a key driver, and continued institutional participation, including ETF flows, has created a more consistent bid for bitcoin than we’ve seen in prior cycles.
“That’s helping support price levels even amid broader market uncertainty,” Kahn said.
Dean Chen, an analyst at Bitunix, told Sherwood that while the $75,000 level forms a clear resistance, with $75,600 acting as a key liquidation trigger zone, on the downside, the $73,400 level becomes critical for maintaining range support.
“A breakdown would likely push price back into lower-liquidity zones for rebalancing,” Chen said.
Finally, other analysts are calling bitcoin’s bottom, arguing that despite the Middle East conflict, bitcoin has held relatively well compared to other risk assets.
“If that doesn’t crash bitcoin, nothing will. The weak hands have already left. Fear and Greed doubled on the Middle East news, and the price held. The bottom is in. $200K by EOY,” Sideshift.ai founder Andreas Brekken told Sherwood.
