Crypto
Consensus BTC mining
Consensus 2024 panel (Jack Morse)
Consensus2024

Bitcoin mining’s future: get big by going small

Jack Morse

Bitcoin mining may be destined for smaller, and better, things. 

Industry execs see the industry shifting into smaller operations and the background of everyday life to such an extent that people will forget it is there. 

It would be quite the shift for the OG digital asset, which currently relies on industrial-scale complexes spread across the globe to support its operation. Those massive mining facilities have evolved into a hot-button issue across the US as neighbors complain of deafening noise and officials worry about overextended energy grids.

But if Mike Colyer, the CEO of Foundry, is correct, that’ll all change. Foundry helps institutions mine and stake crypto, and has a unique bird’s-eye view of an industry constantly in flux. During a panel at Consensus in Austin, Colyer explained that even as investment dollars pour in, the industry will move away from the mega-mining warehouses that currently dominate headlines. 

“You’re looking at between $12 billion and $18 billion that’s going to flow into bitcoin mining over the next cycle,” he said. 

“We’re moving away from these large bitcoin mining facilities that have been built over the last four years.” Instead, he said, “you’re going to start seeing these small bitcoin mining facilities popping up all over the place.”

That would represent quite the market shift, which post-halving has left some miners looking to consolidate. Just this week it was reported that Riot Platforms tried to buy rival miner Bitfarms for $950 million. 

And it wasn’t the only surprising prediction from the panel for the original crypto. Fred Thiel, Marathon Digital chairman and CEO, said that mining and blockchain tech will increasingly be built into the backbone of new technology. So much so, he argued, that customers won’t even realize it’s there. 

"It’s like the internet,” he argued. “People start building applications that add value at the layer above, then eventually the base layer is going to become free.”

As far as the public is concerned, Thiel predicted that “the operation of mining will eventually disappear,” though he was light on specific examples to how that would happen, exactly.

Crypto investors like Mark Cuban have for years compared blockchain tech to the early days of the internet, when many doubted the need for the new tech. But crypto skeptics like author David Gerard argue crypto is not at all the same as the internet, and just repeating “it’s like the internet” does not make it so.

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Hyperliquid reclaims all-time high

HYPE, the native token powering perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid and its underlying blockchain, rebounded to reclaim its all-time high previously set at the start of the month.

Treasury firms Hyperliquid Strategies and Hyperion DeFi have also rallied as the token increased double digits in the last 24 hours to trade as high as $76.70, rising past its record price set nearly two weeks ago, according to CoinGecko. In the interim between all-time highs, HYPE pulled back to around $53.

The token has several tailwinds, the first coming from ETF flows. Since their inception in May, HYPE ETFs have yet to record negative weekly outflows, posting a cumulative total net inflow of $171.8 million, per SoSoValue.

The second comes from Hyperliquid spending basically everything it earns in fees to buy HYPE, a mechanism embedded into the protocol’s codebase.

The venue’s buyback funding mechanism is set to add a new source of yield. Validators of the network activated “AQAv2,” which means stablecoin deployers will share about 90% of reserve yield revenue on their supply within the protocol.

Around $6.1 billion of Circle’s USDC resides in Hyperliquid, per DefiLlama. Accrual begins on August 26 and the first payment is made on October 3, the network announced in its Discord channel last week.

A substantial amount of capital is riding on different positions of HYPE. In total, a move down to under $53 would result in the liquidation nearly 1.8 million HYPE worth of leveraged long positions on the on-chain perps venue, or $131.7 million, data from CoinGlass shows. For the upside, a climb above $100 results in the liquidation of more than 3 million worth of leveraged HYPE short positions, or $221.5 million.

HYPE’s rebound to all-time high comes after Michael Selig, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, defended his agency’s decision to approve regulated perpetuals, or futures contracts without expiration dates, CNBC reported on Monday.

Last month, the CFTC approved bitcoin perpetual futures trading in the US through regulated prediction markets firm Kalshi and an affiliate of centralized exchange Coinbase.

“Perps are highly likely to become lightly regulated and thus approved in the US,” said David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund.

“We expect to see perps for many different types of assets, from commodities to equities,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

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Crypto market snaps back as sentiment lifts, with altcoins from ethereum to XRP soaring

The market capitalization of the crypto industry has jumped around $83.2 billion in the last 24 hours, with privacy-focused token Zcash and worldcoin, the native cryptocurrency of the network backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, leading market gains, jumping over 22%.

But the last 24 hours have been good across the board:

Investors have been eager to see some positive signs around the Iranian conflict ending, coupled with hopeful outlooks around the CLARITY act, both breathing some life into assets, Kairos Research cofounder Ian Unsworth told Sherwood News.

Simon Shockey, a crypto strategist at crypto wallet infrastructure firm Privy, said the upswing stems from several things converging. He pointed to how alt markets broadly were very oversold following the bug found in Zcash that shook confidence.

Friday, Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox said Anthropic didn’t find any more serious bugs with the Zcash protocol after Shielded Labs requested the AI firm run a security audit of the network with Mythos.

Shockey added that the pool of willing sellers has dwindled. Even if structurally, AI is a much more compelling and asymmetric bet in the eyes of allocators, many of these crypto assets have simply run out of marginal sellers despite some shorter-term narrative-driven pumps. The only people left to sell at this point are the teams themselves and VCs.

Net-net: oversold conditions plus exhausted seller bases plus a macro backdrop thats stabilized equals a snapback, especially in names that have real usage or community conviction behind them,” Shockey told Sherwood.

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