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Bitcoin price falls as polls and prediction markets lower Trump’s odds

The day before the US election, prediction markets have narrowed their odds, with CoinDesk reporting that Polymarket had dropped the odds of a Trump victory to as low as 53% overnight on Saturday — it had been as high as 67% earlier last week. Rival market Kalshi had the odds narrow even further, with the two candidates nearly dead even in the wee hours of Saturday night.

Bitcoin price fell from a near record-high on Tuesday to under $68,000 over the weekend. The crypto’s value seems to be highly correlated with the former president’s numbers, with one analyst noting on X, "Maybe it really is as simple as: • Trump win = $BTC pump • Kamala win = $BTC dump.”

As of writing, Trump has regained some of the market’s confidence, with Polymarket giving him 59.6% odds and Kalshi putting Trump’s chances at 57%, but bitcoin is still struggling to recover and break back through $69,000.

BTC
0.00%
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Bitcoin price fell from a near record-high on Tuesday to under $68,000 over the weekend. The crypto’s value seems to be highly correlated with the former president’s numbers, with one analyst noting on X, "Maybe it really is as simple as: • Trump win = $BTC pump • Kamala win = $BTC dump.”

As of writing, Trump has regained some of the market’s confidence, with Polymarket giving him 59.6% odds and Kalshi putting Trump’s chances at 57%, but bitcoin is still struggling to recover and break back through $69,000.

BTC
0.00%
Today

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$62B

Bitcoin digital asset treasuries (DATs) have taken a big hit amid bitcoin’s tumble, shedding $62 billion in value since the asset’s October 6 all-time high, Artemis data shows, with their fully diluted market cap dropping to $72 billion from $134 billion in early October.

Meanwhile, bitcoin, which has fallen below $62,000 on Friday morning, is down 50% from its all-time high. DAT pioneer Strategy’s market cap stood at $102.2 billion on October 6, according to Macro Trends, and is now down to $45.6 billion, a 55% decline. Strategy has been in hot water since it sold 32 bitcoin earlier this week, and because its digital credit instrument, STRC, has been trading below its par value. Shares of Strategy are down 17% in the past week.

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“Sentiment for crypto is firmly in the gutter” as sector sinks, with tokens hitting multiyear lows

On Thursday, altcoins swept lower as bitcoin weakened. The tokens with the biggest losses in the last 24 hours are NEAR, ethena, and Zcash, each declining double digits in the period.

Other tokens have dropped to lows not seen in over a year in the past 24 hours:

  • Ethereum dropped 4.4% to under $1,780, a level not seen since April 2025.

  • XRP declined 4.5% to an 18-month low last hit in November 2024.

  • Solana decreased 6% to trade below the $70 mark, its lowest price since December 2023.

  • Dogecoin slid below $0.09, a 27-month low last seen in February 2024.

“Sentiment for crypto is firmly in the gutter as fears surrounding BTC/STRC and its potential overflow compound and overshadow anything that can be read as positive news (e.g. CLARITY movements),” according to Sean Dawson, head of research at crypto options platform Derive.xyz.

“[Altcoins] are high beta plays to BTC and are typically sold heavily in a downturn. Simply put, I’d be even more bearish on alts,” Dawson told Sherwood News.

“Further, liquidity has been drained into this year’s ‘superhot’ narrative of AI/data centers. In other words, there are just better, more exciting opportunities elsewhere,” Dawson added.

One cryptocurrency that has bucked the downtrend has been worldcoin, the native token for World, the digital identity project backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. While the broader crypto market has been pushing lower, WLD has jumped nearly 5% in the last 24 hours and 90% in the past seven days, data from CoinGecko shows.

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