Bitcoin stuck in the $70,000 range after $1.26 billion left bitcoin ETFs last week
Several analysts warn that bitcoin ETF outflows are a key driver to monitor.
Bitcoin is stuck in the $70,000 range yet again, unable to break above $78,000 in the past week. While optimism around a looming Iran deal is buoying the overall market on Tuesday morning, it has failed to help Bitcoin, which is hovering just below $77,000.
Daniela Hathorn, a senior market analyst at Capital.com, said that investors are no longer pricing an imminent escalation into a full regional war. Still, they aren’t pricing in a clean resolution either; instead, she said the market seems to be settling on a “messy stalemate.”
“So the current setup is less ‘risk-off’ and more ‘risk-sensitive.’ Markets are still leaning optimistic, but the tolerance for negative headlines is shrinking,” Hathorn said.
One worrying signal for bitcoin is that bitcoin ETFs, which have been a strong support since the war began, saw $1.26 billion in outflows last week, the second consecutive weekly billion-dollar exit. It also represents the largest weekly outflow since the week of January 30, according to SoSoValue.
Bitfinex analysts said that bitcoin risks a $72,000 to $82,000 range without fresh institutional demand. Having spent the past week below the Short-Term Holder Realized Price near $78,600, this leaves an increasing share of recent buyers underwater and likely to sell into rallies.
“Aggressive expansion in Bitfinex margin longs during the recent drawdown also points to growing leverage entering a weakening market structure. That is creating heavy breakeven-driven resistance around $79,000, while the November–February cohort cost basis near $85,900 remains the market’s major structural ceiling,” they said, adding that absent a fresh demand catalyst, the path of least resistance tilts toward price being limited to this range.
They noted, however, that despite these headwinds, the broader supply picture remains constructive, as the activity is driven by “profit taking from transient cohorts, rather than forced distribution by high conviction holders.”
Meanwhile, several analysts have warned that bitcoin ETF outflows are one of the key drivers to monitor, as a sustained exodus could hinder any rally or fail to jump-start a bump.
Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said that bitcoin needs renewed institutional sponsorship to reclaim $82,000 and make the next leg higher credible.
“Until then, rallies should be treated as tests of demand rather than confirmation of trend,” he said.
Other metrics suggest a more balanced landscape, including the ratio of short-term holders to long-term supply, which Glassnode analysts said points to a market characterized by higher conviction and lower speculative activity, indicating a phase of consolidation.
At the same time, caution still rules, as profitability metrics suggest a potentially bearish market sentiment, the analysts said.
“In summary, the market is exhibiting signs of moderation and consolidation, characterized by reduced activity, cautious sentiment, and a mix of risk appetite,” they said.
