Bloomberg Intelligence analyst keeps prediction for bitcoin to fall to $10,000
Many disagree, saying bitcoin is “too big to fail” and that such a fall would require an “extreme systemic shock.”
In an interview with Ellio Trades, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone reiterated his prediction that bitcoin will crater to $10,000. McGlone said the correlation between bitcoin and all risk assets is much more significant than it was a few years ago. On Thursday morning, bitcoin was flat, still stuck in the $70,000 range.
“My point is, if you’re buying any type of cryptos now, you have to hope the stock market goes up. And it’s been — cryptos have been trading horribly versus stocks for almost two years now. Good luck for that to change,” McGlone said in the interview.
However, several experts said his extremely bearish outlook is implausible.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, a bitcoin bull who predicts bitcoin will hit $1 million in 10 years, unsurprisingly disagrees.
“Bitcoin has fat tails, meaning extreme events are possible. I like Mike and respect him as a data-driven analyst. That said, $10K strikes me as extremely unlikely. Maybe if governments stopped running deficits, or there is a catastrophic bear market for risk, but both of those strike me as extremely unlikely. Critics have been prophesizing bitcoin’s doom for 17 years. They’ve been wrong so far; I suspect they’ll be wrong again,” Hougan told Sherwood News.
Brian Huang, cofounder of Glider, told Sherwood that at this point, “BTC is too big to fail.”
Huang said that entire companies are built around mining bitcoin, and that’s only profitable if bitcoin stays above a certain price. At $10,000, it would make more sense for mining companies to buy bitcoin on the market to pump it up than go out of business.
“That’s why we will never get back to $10,000,” Huang said.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, also said that bitcoin dropping to that level is highly improbable, even amid macro uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
“Many market participants argue such a collapse would require an extreme systemic shock such as a global liquidity crisis, nuclear conflict, or a breakdown of internet infrastructure, rather than typical market cycles,” Lee told Sherwood.
Lee added that the current market structure points in the opposite direction: bitcoin ETFs continue to record consistent inflows, even during periods of geopolitical escalation, reinforcing institutional recognition of BTC as a 24/7 geopolitical hedge rather than purely a speculative risk asset.
Bitcoin ETFs have registered $1.1 billion in inflows so far this month, according to SoSoValue.
“After enduring multiple de-leveraging cycles in recent years, the industry’s structure is significantly stronger. Extreme downside forecasts can serve as useful stress tests for risk management, but they should not distract investors from bitcoin’s improving fundamentals and its far more probable long-term upward trajectory,” Lee said.
Sherwood reached out to McGlone for comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication.
