Crypto
Santa Claus with Bag of Toys.
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All they want for Christmas

Crypto traders are betting on a bitcoin “Santa Claus rally”

On, Comet! On, Cupid! On, Donder and bitcoin!

Jack Morse

’Twas the night before Christmas, but it wasn’t visions of sugarplums dancing through crypto degens’ heads.

As the price of bitcoin hovers well below its all-time high of over $108,000, some bettors on the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket are wagering that the crypto’s price will see a “Santa Claus rally” before the end of year.

A so-called Santa Claus rally is an overall increase in stock prices from the past five trading days in December through the first two trading days in January. It’s a phenomenon that’s happened in the crypto world before, with CoinGecko identifying crypto Santa Claus rallies in 8 of the past 10 years.

Bitcoin price bets on Polymarket suggest some traders think a rally’s incoming, with current odds at 77% that BTC hits $100,000 again before the end of the year. In a separate event that’s seen nearly $25 million in contracts traded, bettors have wagered that there’s a 16% chance bitcoin’s price will pass $110,000 before the year’s end.

That would be a new record price, and quite the Christmas present for folks hoping for an end-of-year payday.

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Dogecoin and other canine tokens lead the pack as wider crypto market remains flat

Dogecoin, the meme coin beloved by Elon Musk with a market capitalization of $16.5 billion, is outpacing its peers bitcoin and etheruem in the last 24 hours, jumping nearly 9% to trade at nearly $0.11.

Also among the top 10 gainers in the period are ethereum-based dog token shiba inu and solana-native canine coin bonk, each increasing over 3%, data from CoinGecko shows.

In another positive sign for the meme coin, dogecoin ETFs have only recorded monthly inflows since their November listing, bringing in a cumulative net flow of $9.6 million, according to SoSoValue.

However, traders expect dogecoin to trade lower soon. Prediction market-implied odds of the cryptocurrency sliding below $0.08 stand at 76% on Wednesday morning.

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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NFT price floors surge, but trading volume still in the dumps

The price floor (the lowest possible acquisition cost) of many NFTs has pushed higher recently, but sales volume has not picked up.

In the last seven days, ethereum-based collection CryptoPunks has increased more than 19% to a floor price of nearly 31 ethereum, worth over $70,000, while Bored Ape Yacht Club NFTs have jumped 26% to 9.5 ethereum, or $21,692, according to analytics platform NFTPriceFloor.

Pudgy Penguins has increased 20%, Chromie Squiggle has rallied 29%, and anime-inspired Azuki has gained over 44% in the period.

Zooming out, however, the ongoing rally has not coincided with growing trading volume. Weekly sales volume since last April has been on a gradual decline, per data aggregator CryptoSlam, suggesting narrow enthusiasm underpinning the price upswing.

While these once popular NFTs have seen their price floors rise recently, they are far from the heights they reached when they starred in the 2021 crypto cycle. For example, DJ and producer Steve Aoki purchased seven Bored Ape Yacht Club NFTs for more than $800,000 five years ago, but those NFTs at the collection’s price floor are worth $152,000 today.

Elsewhere, NFTs representing graded “Pokémon” cards are gaining traction. Collector Crypt, a solana-based venue that enables users to trade tokenized “Pokémon” cards, has earned between $2 million and $3 million each month in 2026. Its native token, CARDS, has jumped 94% in the last seven days, data from CoinGecko shows.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.