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Doge is pumping, but doge ETFs are flopping

“It’s the people’s coin, built on memes, community energy, and viral moments. The fact that it can pump 21% in a week without a single dollar of ETF inflows shows the community still has pricing power independent of Wall Street.”

Dogecoin, the meme coin that started as a joke and the 10th-largest crypto by market cap, is on a winning streak, up 24% in the past week. In comparison, the two largest coins, bitcoin and Ethereum, are up 4% and 6%, respectively, over the same period.

It’s a bleaker story for spot dogecoin ETFs, however: Grayscale’s GDOG, which started trading on the NYSE on November 24, and Bitwise’s BWOW, debuting on the Nasdaq on November 26, registered zero inflows on Tuesday, SoSoValue data shows. Together, the two funds have registered a relatively paltry $3.9 million so far in January.  

Meanwhile, Rex-Osprey’s DOJE ETF, with $24 million in assets under management and the first of its kind to hit the market, also had zero inflows on Tuesday, according to Greg King, CEO of Rex Financial.

As for 21Shares’ leveraged 2x Long Dogecoin ETF, launched on November 20, it also registered zero inflows on Tuesday, data from The Block shows.

Rex’s King told Sherwood News that on Tuesday, DOJE traded about 250,000 shares, versus an average volume of 59,000.

“Creations,” meaning buying the underlying security and wrapping them in an ETF, “often don’t tie immediately to increased volume, but increased volume on a 21% up day for DOGE indicates an increase in demand for DOJE,” he said.

Yet demand for dogecoin ETFs has been tepid so far, particularly compared to other altcoin ETFs:

  • XRP ETFs have recorded $78.8 million in inflows so far this month and have yet to see a single day of outflows. XRP, Ripple’s native token, is up 19% in the past week.

  • solana ETFs have seen $35.1 million in inflows in January, while the token is up roughly 9% in the last seven days.

Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood that while there haven’t been ETF flows into doge over the last few days, that doesn’t mean people aren’t trading doge.

Puckrin attributes the price/inflows discrepancy to the difference in the retail and institutional crowds.

“ETF flows, meanwhile, often reflect more sticky or institutional capital, suggesting the price surge may have been driven more by speculative retail interest,” he said.

Unlike their bitcoin and ethereum counterparts, which have become highly institutionalized thanks to backing from large financial institutions and ETF launches, doge is a different beast. 

Alan Orwick, CEO of Dominant Strategies, deemed doge ETFs “a flop” since their inception, due to doge being a community-driven asset with key figures like Elon Musk keeping the narrative alive.

Orwick added that the lack of institutional interest is a feature rather than a bug, as the token was never meant to be a suit-and-tie institutional play.

“It’s the people’s coin, built on memes, community energy, and viral moments. The fact that it can pump 21% in a week without a single dollar of ETF inflows shows the community still has pricing power independent of Wall Street,” he said.

That grassroots dynamic is what made doge culturally relevant and what separates it from tokens chasing institutional validation, he said.

“As long as the community stays engaged and the memes keep flowing, doge doesn’t need BlackRock’s blessing to move,” Orwick said. 

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Hyperliquid reclaims all-time high

HYPE, the native token powering perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid and its underlying blockchain, rebounded to reclaim its all-time high previously set at the start of the month.

Treasury firms Hyperliquid Strategies and Hyperion DeFi have also rallied as the token increased double digits in the last 24 hours to trade as high as $76.70, rising past its record price set nearly two weeks ago, according to CoinGecko. In the interim between all-time highs, HYPE pulled back to around $53.

The token has several tailwinds, the first coming from ETF flows. Since their inception in May, HYPE ETFs have yet to record negative weekly outflows, posting a cumulative total net inflow of $171.8 million, per SoSoValue.

The second comes from Hyperliquid spending basically everything it earns in fees to buy HYPE, a mechanism embedded into the protocol’s codebase.

The venue’s buyback funding mechanism is set to add a new source of yield. Validators of the network activated “AQAv2,” which means stablecoin deployers will share about 90% of reserve yield revenue on their supply within the protocol.

Around $6.1 billion of Circle’s USDC resides in Hyperliquid, per DefiLlama. Accrual begins on August 26 and the first payment is made on October 3, the network announced in its Discord channel last week.

A substantial amount of capital is riding on different positions of HYPE. In total, a move down to under $53 would result in the liquidation nearly 1.8 million HYPE worth of leveraged long positions on the on-chain perps venue, or $131.7 million, data from CoinGlass shows. For the upside, a climb above $100 results in the liquidation of more than 3 million worth of leveraged HYPE short positions, or $221.5 million.

HYPE’s rebound to all-time high comes after Michael Selig, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, defended his agency’s decision to approve regulated perpetuals, or futures contracts without expiration dates, CNBC reported on Monday.

Last month, the CFTC approved bitcoin perpetual futures trading in the US through regulated prediction markets firm Kalshi and an affiliate of centralized exchange Coinbase.

“Perps are highly likely to become lightly regulated and thus approved in the US,” said David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund.

“We expect to see perps for many different types of assets, from commodities to equities,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

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Crypto market snaps back as sentiment lifts, with altcoins from ethereum to XRP soaring

The market capitalization of the crypto industry has jumped around $83.2 billion in the last 24 hours, with privacy-focused token Zcash and worldcoin, the native cryptocurrency of the network backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, leading market gains, jumping over 22%.

But the last 24 hours have been good across the board:

Investors have been eager to see some positive signs around the Iranian conflict ending, coupled with hopeful outlooks around the CLARITY act, both breathing some life into assets, Kairos Research cofounder Ian Unsworth told Sherwood News.

Simon Shockey, a crypto strategist at crypto wallet infrastructure firm Privy, said the upswing stems from several things converging. He pointed to how alt markets broadly were very oversold following the bug found in Zcash that shook confidence.

Friday, Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox said Anthropic didn’t find any more serious bugs with the Zcash protocol after Shielded Labs requested the AI firm run a security audit of the network with Mythos.

Shockey added that the pool of willing sellers has dwindled. Even if structurally, AI is a much more compelling and asymmetric bet in the eyes of allocators, many of these crypto assets have simply run out of marginal sellers despite some shorter-term narrative-driven pumps. The only people left to sell at this point are the teams themselves and VCs.

Net-net: oversold conditions plus exhausted seller bases plus a macro backdrop thats stabilized equals a snapback, especially in names that have real usage or community conviction behind them,” Shockey told Sherwood.

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