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FTX Arena (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
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FTX customers could finally get their money back as reorganization begins

It took two years, and while some investors are not holding their breath for the money, they’re surprisingly still bullish on crypto overall.

A little more than two years after FTX’s collapse, today might be the day of reckoning for crypto investors who lost money on the platform. On December 16, FTX and its debtors announced that the Chapter 11 plan of reorganization would happen on January 3 in partnership with BitGo and Kraken, with payouts to follow.  

“The Initial Distribution is expected to occur within 60 days of the Effective Date, with participation subject to know-your-customer and other distribution requirements,” an FTX news release said.

FTX’s blowout and collapse in November 2022 affected hundreds of thousands of investors, many of whom lost their life savings. But finally these customers may get their money back. One investor, who we’ll call Harry (not his real name), spoke with Sherwood News about his experience. 

I was working in a crypto company, and on the day it happened the news came through CoinDesk and other crypto publications, and the announcement came through emails,” Harry said. “I tried to withdraw the money, but there was a huge run, so I wasn’t able to.”

Although Harry didn’t lose his life savings — he usually kept about $20,000 to $30,000 on the platform, but at the time had around $6,000 — he was shocked. Harry’s crypto investments were primarily in bitcoin and FTT, FTX’s native coin.

“You perceive the figures who ran the company as vetted and regulated giants who have credit. Sam was everywhere,” Harry said, referring to FTX founder Bankman-Fried. “He was the next messiah in crypto.” 

But Bankman-Fried was no savior — he was the leader of a massive crypto fraud. Last March, he was sentenced to 25 years in prison and ordered to pay $11 billion for his fraudulent schemes, the Department of Justice said. 

According to an October release, FTX had between $14.7 billion and $16.5 billion available for distribution. Under this plan, “98% of the creditors of FTX by number will receive approximately 119% of the amount of their allowed claims within 60 days after the effective date of the plan.”

Harry filed a claim on the FTX debtors’ customer portal but said “he’s not holding his breath” for a payout.

“You’re sort of living in hope, but at the same time, with anything like this, you bite the bullet and consider you will never get your money back,” he added.

There are some caveats to the payouts, notably that the repayments are based on the price of the assets at the time of FTX’s collapse. In November 2022, bitcoin was worth between $15,000 and $17,000. Now it’s hovering around $100,000 — a more than 500% increase — which stings for many investors. The same goes for ethereum, which was worth between $1,200 and $1,600 at the time of FTX’s blowout. Today it’s at over $3,600.

That said, the process went relatively fast. For comparison, the Mt. Gox debacle took 10 years for customers to get their money back, and the payments are still ongoing.

Fast doesn’t mean smooth, though. FTX investors are taking to Reddit and X to share the difficulties, from Kraken or BitGo not supporting their state or country of residence, to the Kafkaesque chain of necessary steps.

When asked whether an FTX-like collapse could happen again, Harry doesn’t hesitate. “Absolutely,” he said. “If anything, FTX has shown that the industry is not mature enough, that there is not enough regulation, and that there is not enough compliance to vet people. Everything is a catch-up game. The space is growing exponentially too fast.” 

Yet Harry still has faith in crypto. He now has “upward of $200,000” in assets, mostly bitcoin, ethereum, solana, and “a few gambling coins.”

But there is one difference in how he approaches these investments now. While he trades on centralized exchanges, he doesn’t keep his money on them, but stores most of it in cold wallets.

“I would never hold any amount that is going to change my life on exchanges anymore,” he said.

Additionally, Harry said it’s crucial to pay attention to due diligence and not ride the wave of the hype and the media so much. 

“Also, don’t put more than you are willing to lose in centralized places — there’s always human error, regulation, and cults of personality.”

While he contends that the industry still needs to mature in its organization and regulation, he’s willing to take these risks.

“These are gambling assets and there are a lot of bad actors,” he added. “But there are also good actors such as the Solana Foundation, the Avalanche Foundation, and a lot of great projects.”

As he puts it, the bad apples are the “early ones” who made a lot of money because many investors lacked knowledge about the space. “Now people conduct more research, and so it’s harder to scam anyone.”

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Hyperliquid reclaims all-time high

HYPE, the native token powering perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid and its underlying blockchain, rebounded to reclaim its all-time high previously set at the start of the month.

Treasury firms Hyperliquid Strategies and Hyperion DeFi have also rallied as the token increased double digits in the last 24 hours to trade as high as $76.70, rising past its record price set nearly two weeks ago, according to CoinGecko. In the interim between all-time highs, HYPE pulled back to around $53.

The token has several tailwinds, the first coming from ETF flows. Since their inception in May, HYPE ETFs have yet to record negative weekly outflows, posting a cumulative total net inflow of $171.8 million, per SoSoValue.

The second comes from Hyperliquid spending basically everything it earns in fees to buy HYPE, a mechanism embedded into the protocol’s codebase.

The venue’s buyback funding mechanism is set to add a new source of yield. Validators of the network activated “AQAv2,” which means stablecoin deployers will share about 90% of reserve yield revenue on their supply within the protocol.

Around $6.1 billion of Circle’s USDC resides in Hyperliquid, per DefiLlama. Accrual begins on August 26 and the first payment is made on October 3, the network announced in its Discord channel last week.

A substantial amount of capital is riding on different positions of HYPE. In total, a move down to under $53 would result in the liquidation nearly 1.8 million HYPE worth of leveraged long positions on the on-chain perps venue, or $131.7 million, data from CoinGlass shows. For the upside, a climb above $100 results in the liquidation of more than 3 million worth of leveraged HYPE short positions, or $221.5 million.

HYPE’s rebound to all-time high comes after Michael Selig, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, defended his agency’s decision to approve regulated perpetuals, or futures contracts without expiration dates, CNBC reported on Monday.

Last month, the CFTC approved bitcoin perpetual futures trading in the US through regulated prediction markets firm Kalshi and an affiliate of centralized exchange Coinbase.

“Perps are highly likely to become lightly regulated and thus approved in the US,” said David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund.

“We expect to see perps for many different types of assets, from commodities to equities,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

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Crypto market snaps back as sentiment lifts, with altcoins from ethereum to XRP soaring

The market capitalization of the crypto industry has jumped around $83.2 billion in the last 24 hours, with privacy-focused token Zcash and worldcoin, the native cryptocurrency of the network backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, leading market gains, jumping over 22%.

But the last 24 hours have been good across the board:

Investors have been eager to see some positive signs around the Iranian conflict ending, coupled with hopeful outlooks around the CLARITY act, both breathing some life into assets, Kairos Research cofounder Ian Unsworth told Sherwood News.

Simon Shockey, a crypto strategist at crypto wallet infrastructure firm Privy, said the upswing stems from several things converging. He pointed to how alt markets broadly were very oversold following the bug found in Zcash that shook confidence.

Friday, Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox said Anthropic didn’t find any more serious bugs with the Zcash protocol after Shielded Labs requested the AI firm run a security audit of the network with Mythos.

Shockey added that the pool of willing sellers has dwindled. Even if structurally, AI is a much more compelling and asymmetric bet in the eyes of allocators, many of these crypto assets have simply run out of marginal sellers despite some shorter-term narrative-driven pumps. The only people left to sell at this point are the teams themselves and VCs.

Net-net: oversold conditions plus exhausted seller bases plus a macro backdrop thats stabilized equals a snapback, especially in names that have real usage or community conviction behind them,” Shockey told Sherwood.

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