Have we reached the bitcoin bottom yet? Many experts don’t think so.

Bitcoin has been stuck in the mid- to low $60,000s for the past 10 days, struggling to break above $70,000. Macro-driven factors, uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s rate path, and flaring geopolitical tensions are all putting pressure on the asset’s price, and long-term effects from the October 10 liquidation event continue to weigh on Bitcoin, which is down nearly 50% from its October 6 all-time high.

So far this month, bitcoin ETFs have seen $916 million in outflows, and if February closes in the red, it would mark the fourth consecutive month of outflows, SoSoValue data shows.

Investors are worried, with Google searches for “bitcoin going to zero” reaching the highest level since FTX collapsed in 2022, according to Cointelegraph.

So has bitcoin bottomed out, or is there more downward trajectory ahead?

Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, told Sherwood News that for a true bottom, it will require a new set of investors coming in as old investors sell.

“What the ladder of ownership is: retail, VC capital, traditional institutions, and corporate institutions. The final boss of a bull case is sovereign ownership, so for a true bottoming out, corporates and ETFs need to let go for there to be a recycling of ownership,” he said.

Magadini said the next incremental buyer will be sovereign holders in a bull run, but that’s not happening any time soon.

“Meaning we need change in ownership for a bottom… We haven’t seen that yet,” he said.

If we have a true capitulation move, the levels Magadini’s looking at are $35,000 to $37,000.

“I think the best thing we have right now in terms of timing is the four-year cycle. People I talk to expect an October bottom timing-wise. That would mark the end of the bear market if we follow the four-year cycle. It also makes a lot of sense, with the mid-term elections, which will bring clarity,” he said.

Speaking of clarity, Magadini doesn’t see the anticipated CLARITY Act as a catalyst for a rally. He said it would at best be “perhaps a short, two-day move,” as we have gotten Goldilocks regulations in the past year and it hasn’t helped the market.

Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, echoed the sentiment, noting that it’s unlikely bitcoin has yet put in a durable bottom.

Puckrin said that historically, bitcoin bear markets have bottomed near the 200-week moving average, which is currently around $58,000, and close to realized price, which sits near $55,000.

“From both a technical and on-chain perspective, that zone remains a logical downside target, which means around a 15% correction from current levels,” he said.

Liquidity conditions also don’t currently support a structural rebound in bitcoin price, Puckrin said, so any bounces we see are likely to be short-lived and should be treated with caution.

“There’s likely more pain to come, unless we see a clear liquidity shift in the form of falling rates, a weaker dollar, or significant ETF inflows,” he said.

Finally, Puckrin said that previous cycle bottoms have happened when on-chain profit metrics like NUPL (net unrealized profit/loss) entered genuine capitulation territory.

“We’re not seeing that yet, as most holders remain in profit,” he said.

Additional indicators that bitcoin has not bottomed out yet include its standing relative to previous bear markets.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial analyst at Capital.com, told Sherwood that “bottoming out is a process” and he hasn’t seen definitive signs of a bottoming happening, “at least on the charts.”

Rodda said that from here, he’s looking for signs that buyers are consistently stepping in above support at $60,000.

“What I would say, though, is that bitcoin bear markets tend to see more than a 50% drawdown. The last three were 80%, give or take. If you follow that rule of thumb, this bear market would see bitcoin push below $30,000,” he said.

Deribit’s chief commercial officer, Jean-David Pequignot, told Sherwood that bitcoin is locked in a high-stakes consolidation, trading in a tight $66,000 to $68,500 range, and while the broader narrative is still bolstered by institutional expansion, the immediate price action is a risk-off reaction to hawkish FOMC minutes.

Pequignot said a mechanical bottom may still be ahead and the market seems bracing for a liquidity sweep.

“Lacking sufficient momentum to go higher yet, the market is likely to take the path of least resistance down into the pockets of stop-losses at $62–$65K to find the liquidity needed to fuel a move toward $80K. The volume in $60-65K Puts seem to point to one more stop-hunt into the $60K–$62.5K zone before a sustained reversal,” Pequignot said.

Pequignot said that the options market at Deribit is currently painting a picture of controlled hedging, with recent bitcoin options flows showing a neutral to slightly bullish picture.

Danny Nelson, research analyst at Bitwise, said “it’s simply too early to call” where bitcoin goes from here.

“Bitcoin is trading below so many key moving averages. Until we have huge volumes coming in to break us out of this range, we can’t be certain where the market goes next,” Nelson said.

Finally, Abra founder and CEO Bill Barhydt, who recently told Sherwood that he’s “lived through multiple 70% bitcoin drawdowns” and that it’s not “bitcoin’s worst time ever,” remains optimistic about bitcoin’s 18-month trajectory.

“With bitcoin at $67K and crypto market sentiment at all-time lows, it’s hard to believe that we could see huge downside from here.  I think the range is now set at $50-95K for several weeks. At that point, we will see the effects of market legislation plus significant incremental market liquidity. This will likely mean all-time highs and beyond in the next 18 months. Patience and a reasonable time preference will be rewarded,” Barhydt said.