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Luke Kawa

AppLovin rockets higher after crushing Wall Street estimates

Ad tech firm AppLovin is mooning after releasing robust quarterly results after the close on Wednesday, with shares up nearly 30% premarket.

The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.73 on revenues of $1.37 billion, crushing every Wall Street analyst’s estimate. Its core business, advertising, came just shy of cracking $1 billion in sales for the quarter.

And based on its guidance, that bar may be cleared in the current quarter, with management seeing total revenues between $1.36 billion to $1.39 billion, versus the consensus estimate for $1.32 billion. Wall Street is looking for AppLovin’s advertising unit to surpass that milestone.

“Early adopters in gaming and direct-to-consumer commerce have already seen the impact of our technology, and our mission is clear: to onboard every business that wants to drive measurable growth,” CEO Adam Foroughi wrote in a letter to shareholders.

AppLovin has had two major revenue sources: helping developers monetize their apps through advertisements (enhanced with AI tools) and mobile gaming. Management announced that the latter unit is being sold for $900 million.

It’s in a bucket of companies that we’ve previously referred to as successfully “doing AI on the cheap” — a group that saw a spurt of outperformance following the US election and has seemingly benefited from the emergence of China’s DeepSeek AI, as well.

Numbers like these leave me with one big question: What does it mean for the “AI enablers” (or, if you prefer, “hyperscalers”) that a company doing AI on the cheap, with a core business that shares some degree of overlap with Meta and Alphabet, can crush Wall Street’s estimates by this much?

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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