Bitcoin logo is seen in Warsaw, Poland, on November 13, 2024 (Jakub Porzycki/Getty Images)

Bitcoin reclaims status as hyper-leveraged play on US tech stocks

Congrats! Through a sophisticated cryptography-based peer-to-peer currency you have created “the Nasdaq 100, but on steroids.”

Luke Kawa

11/21/24 4:00PM

It’s often said that all cryptocurrencies like bitcoin do is offer leveraged exposure to US tech stocks.

That is, they move the same direction, but are just way, way more volatile. This line of thinking undercuts other arguments for owning crypto, like that it’s a play against alleged US dollar debasement, hedges inflation risk, or protects against disorder in the traditional financial system.

Over the long haul, that diagnosis has been borne out by the data. For the past decade, bitcoin’s beta to the Nasdaq 100 has been about 4.6 — that is, if the US tech-heavy gauge rallied 1% in a given week, you’d expect bitcoin to be up about 4.6% during the same period.

But interestingly, for much of the past year, this relationship has broken down. From March through mid-October, the beta of the weekly changes in bitcoin vs. the Nasdaq 100 was faintly negative. The two tended to move in opposite directions each week, and didn’t really have that strong connection. Tech stocks continued to ride the AI boom while bitcoin largely languished.

Now, amid the parabolic postelection surge in all things crypto? It’s baaaaaaaaack.

Bitcoin’s rolling three-month beta to the Nasdaq 100 has spiked as the cryptocurrency approaches $100,000 — and if we used shorter time-frames, it’d be considerably higher!

Luke Kawa

AIudiophile

34m

Morgan Stanley: Most Gen Zers and millennials in the US listen to about three hours of AI music a week

That’s enough AI music to last the run time of “Avatar.”

WNBA: JUN 23 Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky

Max Knoblauch1h

Bulls pour into Joby and Archer options as Trump's push for record defense budget boosts eVTOL names

Options traders appear bullish on electric aircraft makers like Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation on Thursday, with large volumes boosting the stocks following President Trump’s call for a record $1.5 trillion US military budget for 2027.

Both companies, as well as newly public rival Beta Technologies, have sizable defense contracts. In July, Archer CEO Adam Goldstein told Sherwood News that he believes the company’s defense side will outpace its civil air taxi service for at least a decade.

Traders seem to believe him. As of 10:53 a.m. ET, about 31,000 Archer call options had exchanged hands, around 9,000 short of its 20-day average for a full day. Joby saw roughly 20,000 call options traded by the same time, eclipsing its 20-day average. For the most actively traded calls for Joby and Archer (C$17s expiring February 20 and C$9s expiring on Friday, respectively), volumes on the ask side are outstripping the bid or mid, indicating motivated buyers.

J. Edward Moreno1h

Insurers rise as House tees up ACA extension vote

Several health insurers rallied on Thursday as the House of Representatives is expected to pass a measure extending the Affordable Care Act tax credits that expired at the end of 2025.

The scheduled vote comes after a group moderate Republicans broke with leadership to revive the bill, as rising health premiums create a political liability for lawmakers up for election in the midterms this year. While it’s expected to pass the House with support from those Republicans, it faces an uphill battle in the Senate.

The biggest providers of ACA Marketplace plans, like Oscar Health, Molina Healthcare, Centene and UnitedHealthcare, rose on the news.

The ACA tax credits, which subsidize health insurance plans provided by private insurers, were part of a 2021 COVID-19 relief package passed by a Democrat-controlled Congress. The credits expired at the end of 2025, and health premiums are expected to skyrocket as insurers adjust for rising costs of care.

Matt Phillips2h

Bloom Energy surges on fuel cell deal with utility

Fuel cell maker and momentum stock favorite Bloom Energy ripped early Thursday, after American Electric Power said one of its subsidiaries would exercise an option — from a previous agreement — to buy additional Bloom products for a fuel cell power plant in an agreement worth $2.65 billion.

AEP also said it had signed a “20-year deal with an unnamed customer to supply the entire output from the fuel cell generation facility that will be located near Cheyenne, Wyoming.”

Analysts at Evercore ISI wrote:

“We view this as a meaningful positive for Bloom as it sheds light on the demand for its product and provides investors insight into the fact that the AEP contract will result in volumes well above the minimum commitment, which had previously been rather opaque.

Additionally, this should also provide confidence in Bloom’s customer diversification as many had typically tethered the company directly to Oracle, given the company’s announced collaboration with the company in July 2025.”

With Thursday morning’s surge, Bloom Energy is up more than 400% over the last 12 months, in a rally driven by investor excitement about surging power demand related to AI data centers. While the company has been profitable — on an adjusted basis — over its last four quarters, it’s also highly valued, with a price-to-forward earnings multiple of more than 100x.

American Electric Power signs $2.65 billion deal for fuel cells

Analysts at Evercore ISI wrote:

“We view this as a meaningful positive for Bloom as it sheds light on the demand for its product and provides investors insight into the fact that the AEP contract will result in volumes well above the minimum commitment, which had previously been rather opaque.

Additionally, this should also provide confidence in Bloom’s customer diversification as many had typically tethered the company directly to Oracle, given the company’s announced collaboration with the company in July 2025.”

Luke Kawa2h

Opendoor soars as management says Trump’s push to end institutional home-buying wouldn’t hurt the company

Opendoor Technologies is soaring on Thursday after executives argued that its swoon on Wednesday was an overreaction and misinterpretation by markets.

The online real estate company’s losses deepened yesterday after US President Donald Trump called on Congress to ban institutional investors from buying single-family homes.

Opendoor is a home-flipper rather than a longer-term holder that buys to rent (à la Invitation Homes or American Homes 4 Rent), and if anything, has been aiming to keep homes on its balance sheet for as short a time as possible under new CEO Kaz Nejatian.

Shares were down as much as 13% on Wednesday, but bounced off those lows around 2:15 p.m. ET after Nejatian took to X to endorse the proposal, and are continuing to pare some of those losses today.

When families buy homes, they buy a stake in the future of their community.

Everything we can do to help people live in homes they own is a good thing. Homes are for families.

We are super happy to see @realDonaldTrump is so committed to helping average homeowners.
— Kaz Nejatian (@CanadaKaz) January 7, 2026

Nejatian added, “We’re not institutional investors, our job is to help people buy homes. We don’t hold the homes!”

Chairman Keith Rabois, for his part, said this policy would only have a positive impact on the company, adding that it could increase conversion.