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Bitcoin logo is seen in Warsaw, Poland, on November 13, 2024 (Jakub Porzycki/Getty Images)

Bitcoin reclaims status as hyper-leveraged play on US tech stocks

Congrats! Through a sophisticated cryptography-based peer-to-peer currency you have created “the Nasdaq 100, but on steroids.”

It’s often said that all cryptocurrencies like bitcoin do is offer leveraged exposure to US tech stocks.

That is, they move the same direction, but are just way, way more volatile. This line of thinking undercuts other arguments for owning crypto, like that it’s a play against alleged US dollar debasement, hedges inflation risk, or protects against disorder in the traditional financial system.

Over the long haul, that diagnosis has been borne out by the data. For the past decade, bitcoin’s beta to the Nasdaq 100 has been about 4.6 — that is, if the US tech-heavy gauge rallied 1% in a given week, you’d expect bitcoin to be up about 4.6% during the same period.

But interestingly, for much of the past year, this relationship has broken down. From March through mid-October, the beta of the weekly changes in bitcoin vs. the Nasdaq 100 was faintly negative. The two tended to move in opposite directions each week, and didn’t really have that strong connection. Tech stocks continued to ride the AI boom while bitcoin largely languished.

Now, amid the parabolic postelection surge in all things crypto? It’s baaaaaaaaack.

Bitcoin’s rolling three-month beta to the Nasdaq 100 has spiked as the cryptocurrency approaches $100,000 — and if we used shorter time-frames, it’d be considerably higher!

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Moderna jumps after settling Covid vaccine patent dispute

Moderna is up 4.8% at 5 a.m. ET in premarket trading after the pharma giant said on Tuesday that it had reached a deal to resolve a patent dispute related to the technology behind key Covid vaccine models.

Moderna will pay $950 million upfront, and a further $1.3 billion down the line, depending on the result of a separate appeal, to Arbutus Biopharma and Genevant Sciences to resolve all related disputes across its Spikevax® and mRESVIA® models. The settlement comes with no further royalties, which the company said in a press release would provide “certainty going forward for Moderna's full infectious disease portfolio.” That said, if Moderna’s appeal, based on its government-contractor immunity defense limits, ultimately prevails, the two biotech companies will refund the payment in full, including interest.

The $950 million charge is expected to be recorded in Q1 2026, per the company’s press release, leading Moderna to adjust its cash and cash equivalents expectations in the current calendar year to fall between $4.5 and $5 billion. Still, as analysts at William Blair observed late Tuesday, the total settlement amount is “worse than feared” — a take investors seem to be getting onboard with.

Noting that Moderna is driving towards its goal to break even in 2028, CEO Stéphane Bancel commented: “resolving this legacy matter from our pandemic response removes uncertainty and allows us to turn our full focus to Moderna's exciting near-term future.”

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Oil to lows and stocks to highs of day after President Trump says US will insure and escort oil tankers through the Gulf

West Texas Intermediate futures dipped to their lowest level of the day while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF continued to pare losses after US President Donald Trump ordered immediate action to improve the flow of oil to global markets, as the US-Iran conflict caused shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to slow to a crawl.

In a Truth Social post, the president said the US International Development Finance Corp. would provide “political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf,” adding that the US Navy would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible, if necessary.

Bloomberg’s Javier Blas explained that having oil-producing countries in the region able to reload crude on tankers is critical to avoiding production shut-ins.

Of course, there is a risk of unintended consequences from a heightened US presence in the region’s most strategically important area, from the perspective of global markets, during a time of kinetic military action. US naval escorts through the strait could dramatically increase the risk of an incident that massively escalates the conflict.

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Versant climbs in its first quarter after spin-off, announces dividend and $1 billion stock buyback

Versant Media, the owner of cable TV assets including CNBC, MS Now, and Golf Channel, reported its first earnings since spinning off from Comcast earlier this year. The stock climbed 3% after markets opened.

Investors appear to like Versant’s $1 billion stock buyback plan and its newly announced quarterly dividend of $0.375 per share.

Versant reported Q4 revenue of $1.55 billion, shy of the $1.56 billion expected by analysts polled by FactSet. The company posted earnings of $0.72 per share in the quarter, below estimates of $0.96 per share.

MS Now, formerly MSNBC, was the most watched news channel on election night in November, Versant said. The network will launch a direct-to-consumer platform later this year.

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