markets

Luke Kawa4/21/25

Bitcoin’s divorce from US tech stocks another damning sign of the “sell America” trade

It turns out Tyler Winklevoss wasn’t wrong. He was just early.

On the weekend following Liberation Day, the Gemini cofounder said that bitcoin’s resilience following an end-of-week meltdown in US stocks in response to Liberation Day indicated that bitcoin was “now behaving like a hedge to geopolitical uncertainty.”

The crypto asset promptly fell out of bed shortly following his remarks (womp womp!). But fast-forward a couple weeks and, well, you gotta hand it to him. Bitcoin has often behaved like a hyper-correlated, leveraged play on US tech stocks and recently, it hasn’t been trading like a US risk asset. It’s been trading without the taint of being associated with America — a characteristic that’s been damning for US stocks, government bonds, and the greenback.

Bitcoin’s has been an excellent store of value since April 2 (the last trading day prior to President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement in the Rose Garden). The digital currency is up about 2% over this time while the Nasdaq 100 is down nearly 9%. Not as good as gold, to be sure, but way better than the US dollar or long-term Treasury bonds, that’s for sure.

Most of the divergence is fairly recent, occurring in the past couple trading days as the “sell America” theme in financial markets has gone viral.

It’s a troubling sign, from the perspective of an owner of US assets, that the desire to sell America and own not-America appears to be playing a dominant role in driving price action across financial markets, overwhelming bitcoin’s traditional solid relationship with US tech stocks.

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J. Edward Moreno7/7/26

SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

US job growth falls far short of estimates in June; unemployment rate unexpectedly dips to 4.2%

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Meta surges on report it’s starting a cloud business to sell excess AI compute

The story of the hyperscalers in 2026 has largely been “the beatings will continue until the cash flow outlook improves;” this could help change the story for Meta. Or not.

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markets

Paige Oamek6/30/26

Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).
Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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