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President Trump says that Nvidia can begin to sell its H200 chips to China, with 25% of proceeds going to US government

US President Donald Trump confirmed after the close on Monday that Nvidia will be allowed to ship its H200 chips to China, sending shares of the chip designer up more than 1% in the after-hours session.

Per the president, 25% of the proceeds will go to the US government. That’s a step up from the 15% that Nvidia and AMD had agreed to provide the government in exchange for receiving export licenses to sell their H20 and MI308 chips to China.

Earlier in the day, Semafor reported that the Department of Commerce would soon give the go-ahead to export these powerful chips produced by Nvidia to China, which has been a core priority of the chip juggernaut, citing a source with “knowledge of the plan.” Bloomberg reported on November 21 that such a move was being considered.

The chip designer’s stock surged on the news, while Advanced Micro Devices also caught a bid.

H200s are the most advanced chips from the Hopper line, which was Nvidia’s leading offering prior to Blackwell.

The Chinese government has blocked the import of less powerful chips such as the H20, while China hawks in Washington, DC, have been hesitant to allow the export of the defining technology of the AI era to a rival emerging superpower, introducing a bill in the Senate last week to limit China’s access to chips.

Nevertheless, China’s tech industry has managed to produce models from DeepSeek and Alibaba that compete globally.

Shipments of these chips are “reviving a key data-center revenue stream and potentially restoring $10-$15 billion annually,” wrote Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Kunjan Sobhani and Oscar Hernandez Tejada. “The H200 — offering 5-7x faster performance, 50% more memory, and over 2x the average selling price of the H20 — would likely become the highest-end GPU that Chinese buyers can legally procure, reopening a significant high-margin channel.”

H200s are the most advanced chips from the Hopper line, which was Nvidia’s leading offering prior to Blackwell.

The Chinese government has blocked the import of less powerful chips such as the H20, while China hawks in Washington, DC, have been hesitant to allow the export of the defining technology of the AI era to a rival emerging superpower, introducing a bill in the Senate last week to limit China’s access to chips.

Nevertheless, China’s tech industry has managed to produce models from DeepSeek and Alibaba that compete globally.

Shipments of these chips are “reviving a key data-center revenue stream and potentially restoring $10-$15 billion annually,” wrote Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Kunjan Sobhani and Oscar Hernandez Tejada. “The H200 — offering 5-7x faster performance, 50% more memory, and over 2x the average selling price of the H20 — would likely become the highest-end GPU that Chinese buyers can legally procure, reopening a significant high-margin channel.”

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Meta shares rally as Jefferies says it’s a bargain relative to Mag 7 peers

Shares of Meta rallied over 5% today, as Jefferies analyst Brent Thill doubled down on his buy rating for the company, calling the stock a relative bargain compared to its Magnificent 7 peers. The analyst set a price target of $910, well above the $645 where the stock is trading today.

News out of Davos this week that Meta’s first models from its revamped AI teams are “very good” align with Thill’s argument that the company is well positioned to get back in the AI race with the “all-star model,” which is expected to be released in the first half of the year.

Recent cuts to its Reality Labs also signal that the company is focusing its spending where it matters. The Jefferies note also said the recent monetization of Threads via ads will help boost revenue.

Next week, Meta reports its fourth-quarter earnings, and Thill expects that even if Meta raises its 2026 capex outlook, investors won’t be spooked, as the company has been clear that spending may continue to be high.

Recent cuts to its Reality Labs also signal that the company is focusing its spending where it matters. The Jefferies note also said the recent monetization of Threads via ads will help boost revenue.

Next week, Meta reports its fourth-quarter earnings, and Thill expects that even if Meta raises its 2026 capex outlook, investors won’t be spooked, as the company has been clear that spending may continue to be high.

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Arista Networks rips higher amid jump in call buying

Arista Networks, a maker of switches and other networking equipment used in AI data centers, was on track for its best day of the new year on Thursday as options traders went bullish on the stock.

As of around 11 a.m. ET, there was nearly twice as much call buying in Arista than its 10-day moving average for a full day of activity. Buying call options to make leveraged bets on price increases has been a favorite trading tactic of retail traders in recent years.

Otherwise, there weren’t clear headlines tied to today’s outsized move, but the stock has been getting attention lately: in a note published earlier this month, Goldman Sachs analysts spotlighted Arista as a top tactical trade for earnings season, saying the shares — which they rate a “buy” — could rise 20% over the next year.

“ANET is well positioned amidst ongoing data center spending growth, where its position as a best of breed provider of networking equipment should advantage the company, particularly as data center networks become increasingly complex,” Goldman analysts wrote in the January 8 report.

And recent reports also say Microsoft — which accounted for 20% of Arista’s revenue in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs — is planning a massive expansion of its Wisconsin data center project.

Arista stock did get a lift following the release of solid US economic numbers at 8:30 a.m. that seemed fairly specific to Arista itself. (There was no similar bounce from competitors like Cisco or Hewlett-Packard.)

Otherwise, there weren’t clear headlines tied to today’s outsized move, but the stock has been getting attention lately: in a note published earlier this month, Goldman Sachs analysts spotlighted Arista as a top tactical trade for earnings season, saying the shares — which they rate a “buy” — could rise 20% over the next year.

“ANET is well positioned amidst ongoing data center spending growth, where its position as a best of breed provider of networking equipment should advantage the company, particularly as data center networks become increasingly complex,” Goldman analysts wrote in the January 8 report.

And recent reports also say Microsoft — which accounted for 20% of Arista’s revenue in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs — is planning a massive expansion of its Wisconsin data center project.

Arista stock did get a lift following the release of solid US economic numbers at 8:30 a.m. that seemed fairly specific to Arista itself. (There was no similar bounce from competitors like Cisco or Hewlett-Packard.)

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Investors just made a mammoth $133 billion flip from cash to stocks, per Goldman Sachs

It’s a dash from cash, with investors taking billions in dry powder and pouring that money into the stock market.

“We saw strong net flows into global equity funds last week, led by stronger inflows into US and EM equity funds (+$71 billion vs $2 billion in the previous week) — more than 35x-ed the flows,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Gail Hafif, Brian Garrett, and Lee Coppersmith. “While equity flows increase, money market fund assets fell by $62 billion. This is the 3rd largest level in our dataset (!).”

Goldman cash to stocks flows

The trio is bullish on US stocks, seeing “the case for contained selloffs coupled with relief rallies as the most likely path forward in the near term.”

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