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Earnings season has been phenomenal, and it’s done nothing for the average stock

“The average stock has not moved on earnings this season, which is on the weaker side of the historical distribution,” writes Bespoke Investment Group.

Luke Kawa

Earnings season has been stellar. Traders’ reactions to earnings have been anything but.

Bespoke Investment Group has an excellent series of charts spotlighting just how positive this third-quarter corporate reporting period has been, with exceptional beat rates and guidance hikes across US stocks:

Q3 2025 earnings season stats
Source: Bespoke Investment Group

However, despite 73.5% of companies tracked by Bespoke beating on earnings per share this quarter, the analysts noted that earnings reactions have “been a completely different story.”

In particular, earnings beats have been rewarded with tepid gains, and companies that lowered their outlook were severely punished for a second consecutive season.

“The average stock has not moved on earnings this season, which is on the weaker side of the historical distribution,” they added.

Q3 2025 Earnings Season Stock Reaction
Source: Bespoke Investment Group

If I had to explain why stocks haven’t responded positively to robust results with guidance to match, I’d turn to the recent past.

Ahead of earnings season, September was the third-best month of 2025 for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust, trailing only the May and June recovery from the tariff-induced meltdown in markets and subsequent softening of trade tensions. The three-month growth in 12-month forward earnings per share ahead of earnings season (4.9%) was the strongest it’s been since 2021, when corporate profitability was getting a powerful boost as economic reopening was met by consumers flush with excess spending power.

While these are still more the exceptions than the rules, you can point to episodic examples of stocks that were on an absolute tear into Q3 earnings — Palantir and Micron come to mind — that posted beats and raised guidance only to drop in the wake of these results. The combination of how well stocks had done heading into this reporting period and how much forward expectations were getting revised higher provided a very difficult bar to clear, and made it much more punishing for those who came up short.

In other words, a strong Q3 earnings season... was priced in.

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Core Scientific craters after soft Q4 sales

Core Scientific is sinking in postmarket trading after reporting much lower-than-expected sales in the final three months of 2025 and informing investors of an accounting error in its previous results.

For Q4, the bitcoin miner turned data center company reported:

  • Revenues of $79.8 million (estimate: $115 million).

  • Adjusted net income of $216 million (estimate: -$47.5 million).

Core Scientific’s self-mining and high-performance computing hosting divisions posted far less in sales than anticipated.

The company also indicated that it had overstated the value of property, plant, and equipment, requiring a number of previous releases to be restated. However, these changes do not affect revenue, adjusted EBITDA, or net cash flows, management said.

Core Scientific shareholders rejected CoreWeave’s offer to purchase the company in Q4, which would have created a more vertically integrated neocloud provider.

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Credo Technology tumbles after issuing mediocre guidance

Credo Technology Group is down double digits in postmarket trading after its solid Q3 results weren’t enough to offset a ho-hum outlook for the current quarter.

For Q3, the connectivity solutions company posted:

  • Revenues of $407 million (estimate: $406.4 million).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $1.07 (estimate: $0.92).

However, for Q4, management said sales would range between $425 million and $435 million, the midpoint of which is modestly below Wall Street’s call for $430.5 million.

Shares of Credo had spiked earlier this month when management released preliminary Q3 figures and signaled that its rapid sales growth would continue.

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Archer reports deeper-than-expected Q4 loss

Air taxi maker Archer Aviation reported its fourth-quarter earnings results after the bell on Monday. Its shares fell 2.4% after-hours, eating into some of the gains the stock made in the regular session.

The company posted a loss of $0.26 per share, compared to the $0.24 loss per share expected by analysts polled by FactSet.

Archer ended 2025 with $1.96 billion in cash and cash equivalents, up from Q3’s $1.64 billion and up from $834.5 million in the same quarter the year prior.

Looking ahead to the first quarter, Archer said it expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between -$160 million and -$180 million. Wall Street expected EBITDA of -$104.7 million in Q1.

Last week, Archer announced that it would partner with SpaceX’s Starlink to bring satellite internet into its Midnight aircraft. In its fourth-quarter shareholder letter, the company said it is targeting its first passenger flights this year, mirroring rival Joby’s timeline.

In a sign that investors, like CEO Adam Goldstein, see Archer’s most promising near-term opportunity in its defense business, its shares closed up more than 5% on Monday as investors scooped up defense contractor stocks. Goldstein told Sherwood News last year that he sees defense, with a focus on the autonomous and attritable industry, as the company’s “front and center” division for the next decade. Per the company’s shareholder letter:

“Our partnership with Anduril is at the core of our defense strategy, and it continues to accelerate. We are designing an autonomous, hybrid-electric VTOL aircraft built for dual use. For defense, it will fly alongside armed reconnaissance attack helicopters as a loyal wingman. The aircraft is designed to meet the needs of the U.S. and its allies for decades to come.”

Electric aircraft rivals Beta Technologies and Joby Aviation also ended the day higher.

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Plug Power pops after Q4 revenues exceed expectations

Plug Power is soaring in postmarket trading after issuing solid fourth-quarter sales that more than outweighed some massive red ink on its bottom line.

The hydrogen fuel cell company reported:

  • Revenues of $225.22 million (estimate: $217.26 million).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of -$0.06 (estimate: -$0.10).

$763 million in “various net charges” over the course of the quarter caused many of Plug’s other earnings metrics to look significantly worse.

Management reaffirmed its goal of having positive EBITDAS (the “S” is for stock-based compensation) by 2026, and said the company is “positioned” to do so.

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