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The strategic advantages of futures for traders

Here’s why futures are useful for active traders and modern markets, and how to think about the leverage the instruments offer.

Toby Bochan, Tasha Matsumoto

Welcome to Sherwood’s deep dive into futures markets, presented in partnership with CME Logo


So you know how futures started, what kind of underlying assets underpin futures contracts, and the five specifications of futures contracts, and you’re ready to peer deeper into futures. You’ve proven your mettle by acing our basics futures quiz, too.

In this guide, we’ll go over why futures are useful for active traders and modern markets, the potential for leverage, and other advantages of trading futures. 

Why trade futures?

There are two essential uses for futures: hedging and speculating. 

Just as the futures market can trace its origins back to farmers hedging rice crops, many participants in the futures market are still large institutions that either produce or consume commodities. For example, transportation industries like airlines, cruise lines, and trucking companies may hedge the cost of fuel with futures contracts on products like jet fuel or crude oil.

But for everyday people, hedging needs are a little bit different: instead of hedging commodities, they might want to hedge their portfolios. Traders who fear a short-term downturn may attempt to offset losses in their retirement portfolio by selling an index futures contract. For example, if a trader’s retirement portfolio primarily consists of S&P 500 index funds, a short position in the E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (/ES) would gain in value as their retirement portfolio drops in value. 

Speculators, on the other hand, aim to capitalize on future price movement with long positions when they think an asset’s price will rise, or short positions when they believe an asset’s price will fall (and, with options on futures, traders can capitalize on horizontal movement or high volatility). Speculators are willing to take on a large amount of risk for potential returns. 

Why are futures appealing for active traders?

There’s a reason I began this with “active” traders: futures, despite their name and that they always have an expiration date set in the future, are not meant to be assets you buy and hold, but, like options, are primarily used with short- to medium-term price movements in mind, especially for speculators. 

Some things traders like about futures:

  • Direct exposure to an underlying asset: While traders can buy stocks, they can’t buy commodities like oil or corn via stocks, only stocks of companies whose businesses are affected by the prices of those underlying assets. Sure, Archer Daniels Midland makes a ton of corn syrup and likely would be affected by a plague across all cornfields, but it also makes things out of cocoa and wheat and doesn’t move dollar for dollar with the price of corn, unlike corn futures. 

  • Extended trading hours: While many brokerages now offer some trading outside of regular market hours, the volume and liquidity is still limited, if available at all. Sometimes major market-moving news breaks after-hours, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Oil prices shot up overnight, and the only method for traders to wager on how the conflict would affect the commodity was through futures. 

  • Day trade without restrictions: Day trading, which is when you open and close the same position in a single day, is subject to certain regulations for margin accounts. If you make four or more day trades within five trading days that represent more than 6% of your total trades in that same five-trading-day period, your margin account will be flagged for pattern day trading. If flagged, you’ll be unable to place any day trades until you bring your portfolio value above $25,000 or switch to a cash account. Futures, however, aren’t subject to the pattern day trading regulations that apply to ETFs, stocks, or stock options. 

  • Tax advantages: A profitable short-term trade with futures will pay less in taxes than a stock or ETF. Unlike stocks, ETFs, and equity options, futures are classified as 1256 contracts by the IRS, which means that potential profits may qualify for 60/40 tax treatment:

    • 60% of gains are taxed at the lower long-term capital gains rate, regardless of the holding period.

    • The remaining 40% are taxed at the short-term rate.

Also, unlike stock, ETF, and equity options trades, futures aren’t subject to the wash sale rule. 

  • Leverage: As we learned in our basics of futures piece, each futures contract represents a certain amount of the underlying asset. In the case of crude oil, each contract represents 1,000 barrels of oil. So let’s say oil is trading at $60 a barrel; futures allow you to speculate without having to supply the entire $60,000 notional value of one contract. Basically, you get to speculate on a big number with a much smaller amount of your own money. That leverage is very appealing to investors, as it allows them to keep more of their capital liquid or in other positions. And when things move in the direction traders hope, it also amplifies the gains. But, of course, it can also magnify the losses as well.


That said, to use futures, you also have to commit money to fulfill a margin requirement, which is generally between 3% and 12% of the notional value. In the case of the aforementioned oil contract, let’s say the margin requirement is 10% — so you’d also have to commit $6,000 to a margin account. 

As with all derivatives, while futures provide a lot of benefits, they aren’t without risk. In the next piece, we’ll dive into some of the risks associated with futures trading so you’re equipped to manage those risks.

Until then, test your readiness with our fundamentals of futures quiz.

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GameStop rises after announcing package for CEO Ryan Cohen that completely ties his pay to the company’s value and profits

GameStop is rising in premarket trading after the company announced a long-term performance package for Chairman and CEO Ryan Cohen that completely tethers his financial interests with those of shareholders as well as the company’s operational performance.

Under this plan, Cohen would receive options that enable him to purchase 171.5 million shares of GameStop at $20.66 apiece — but only if the market valuation of the company exceeds certain thresholds and GameStop generates enough cumulative earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).

So Cohen can’t benefit personally from another meme stock surge in the stock unless that’s combined with a continued increase in profitability.

“Under the award, Mr. Cohen receives no guaranteed pay — no salary, no cash bonuses, and no stock that vests simply over time,” per the press release. “Instead, his compensation is entirely ‘at-risk,’ meaning he will only be paid if the Company achieves significant market and operational goals.”

The package is divided into nine tranches, each with a different market cap and cumulative EBITDA hurdle. The first tranche vests if GameStop clears a $20 billion market cap while the company generates $2 billion in EBITDA under his leadership. Per GameStop, Q1 2026 will be the starting point from which this EBITDA performance hurdle will be tracked.

On a closing basis, GameStop has exceeded this $20 billion threshold only during its 2021 meme stock mania. The milestones for different tranches to vest run in increments of $10 billion (up to $100 billion) for market cap, and $1 billion (up to $10 billion) for EBITDA.

Cohen’s key moves as leader of the retailer have been to lean into collectibles, which have seen massive growth, while pursuing an aggressive cost-cutting campaign to improve its financial position. And, I suppose, doing the bitcoin treasury thing.

This new package is subject to approval by shareholders, a vote that Cohen will recuse himself from.

Mr. Blue Sky

So, just how much could this be worth to Cohen, if he somehow turns the ailing retailer into a profitable machine worth more than Nike? Well, let’s just say he won’t be missing his salary.

At a $100 billion market cap with the current share count, GME’s stock would trade at about $223. That would imply Cohen’s stock options to purchase 171.5 million shares at $20.66 would be worth an eye-watering $34.7 billion.

But that, unfortunately, is too simple. Because each tranche vests in turn, and because GameStop is offering over a third of its current shares outstanding, we have to take the dilution into account, which would impact all shareholders, Cohen included.

Assuming all of the awards were exercised upon being hit — e.g. the first 10% coming after the first tranche, the next 20% after the second, etc. — GameStop’s shares outstanding will soar once again.*

The whole GME pizza will be worth the same, but there’ll be a lot more slices with each tranche — about 17 million more... and they’ll all be owned by Cohen. Here’s a table showing the mechanical impact of each threshold being hit, on a very theoretical (and aspirational) GME share price.

Taking the napkin math above, this would mean Cohen’s 171.5 million stock options would be worth closer to $24 billion.

Of course, what will really break your brain is the fact that markets are forward-looking and traders would be adjusting in real time as each dilutive milestone approached.

*The company made the most of its elevated stock price during its meme stock fame, turning its balance sheet into a fortress.

markets

D-Wave Quantum agrees to acquire Quantum Circuits for $550 million to boost gate-model development

D-Wave Quantum announced Wednesday that it has struck a deal to purchase Quantum Circuits for $550 million, as the annealing-centric quantum computing company continues its push to bolster its gate-model capabilities.

The company said that $300 million will be paid in D-Wave stock, with the remainder in cash.

D-Wave is the major player in annealing quantum computing, an approach that solves more specialized optimization problems. Gate-based quantum computers, which aim to address even more complex and broad queries, are the dominant approach being pursued by publicly traded quantum computing firms. Gate model developers have also tended to get more interest from government agencies, as their technology is seen as the ultimate end point for quantum computing and therefore more worthy of support.

“By combining the world’s leading annealing quantum computing company with the world’s leading developer of error-corrected gate-model technology, D-Wave will dramatically accelerate the projected time to a scaled, error-corrected gate-model quantum computer alongside and complementary to its commercial annealing quantum systems,” per the press release. “Combining these technologies is expected to facilitate an accelerated commercial gate-model product roadmap that D-Wave believes will enable it to be the first to deliver fully error-corrected, scaled gate-model quantum computing”

Thanks to this acquisition, D-Wave plans to deliver an initial dual-rail gate-model system in 2026.

During the conference call that followed the release of Q3 earnings in November, CEO Dr. Alan Baratz highlighted gate-model development as a priority for D-Wave.

“Up until now, our investment in gate has been light, mostly because we haven’t had the funds to be able to grow that investment all that much. Now with the roughly $830 million in the bank, we have the resources to be able to invest more in that program, both internal investment and through acquisition to accelerate the program,” he told Sherwood News.

“We have one customer who has said, ‘When you have a gate-model system, I want it.’”

This news comes on the heels of the firm’s announcement on Tuesday that it’s solved a key problem when it comes to scaling superconducting gate-model quantum computers: how to keep qubits in the same place without producing too much heat.

markets

Rare earth stocks rise as White House statement confirms the US is looking at options for acquiring Greenland, including using the military

Companies like MP Materials, Critical Metals, USA Rare Earth, and United States Antimony Corp. have caught a bid in early trading on Wednesday, after a White House statement yesterday confirmed that the president and his team are discussing “a range of options” in their controversial goal to acquire Greenland.

President Trump has touted the idea of acquiring the rare earth-rich, semiautonomous Danish region since his first term, with the White House telling the BBC on Tuesday that the acquisition was a “national security priority.” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt added:

The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the Commander-in-Chiefs disposal.

Earlier on Tuesday, a group of European leaders and NATO members, including the heads of Germany, France, and the UK, issued a joint statement saying that security in the Arctic must be achieved “collectively,” and that “it is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.” The latest US announcement also came after Secretary of State Marco Rubio had downplayed potential military action on Monday.

Critical Metals is leading the price action, up more than 10% on Tuesday’s close as of 6 a.m. ET, building on a sharp ~26% gain yesterday as perhaps the most directly exposed stock, with its Tanbreez project located in southern Greenland. The company, which the Trump administration has reportedly expressed interest in building a stake in, states that the Tanbreez assets include a “diverse portfolio of high-demand rare earth elements.”

President Trump has touted the idea of acquiring the rare earth-rich, semiautonomous Danish region since his first term, with the White House telling the BBC on Tuesday that the acquisition was a “national security priority.” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt added:

The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the Commander-in-Chiefs disposal.

Earlier on Tuesday, a group of European leaders and NATO members, including the heads of Germany, France, and the UK, issued a joint statement saying that security in the Arctic must be achieved “collectively,” and that “it is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.” The latest US announcement also came after Secretary of State Marco Rubio had downplayed potential military action on Monday.

Critical Metals is leading the price action, up more than 10% on Tuesday’s close as of 6 a.m. ET, building on a sharp ~26% gain yesterday as perhaps the most directly exposed stock, with its Tanbreez project located in southern Greenland. The company, which the Trump administration has reportedly expressed interest in building a stake in, states that the Tanbreez assets include a “diverse portfolio of high-demand rare earth elements.”

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