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Where did the money for the $180M GameStop position come from?

Doing the math to see if Keith Gill might have made $200 million in May. It doesn’t quite add up.

Luke Kawa

Last we knew, Keith Gill aka TheRoaringKitty aka DeepFuckingValue (DFV) had about $35 million to his name, as of April 2021.

How did that turn into more than $200 million in stock, options, and cash, per the update posted Sunday evening on Reddit?

Roaring Kitty’s account on Reddit showing stock position
DeepFuckingValue/Reddit

Well, it’s impossible to know for sure. But doing some quick math shows how difficult it is to ascribe of all of those would-be gains to last month’s frenzy in shares of GameStop, the gaming and collectibles retailer, and in particular from prescient option positions that expired on May 17.

Let’s assume that:

  •  On a per-strike basis, DFV’s positions were equal to the lesser of:

    • Roughly 80% of the increase in open interest across the 12, 15, 20, 25, and 30-strikes from April 22 through May 10, or

    • Cumulative volume in each strike from the time open interest peaked through May 16.

  • The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) from April 22 through May 10 is a proxy for the cost of each position, while the WVAP during certain periods in the week ending May 17 is used to determine the selling price.

  • No options were held to expiry and exercised.

  • All activity is on-exchange.

  • Only trades that are at least 100 lots in size matter for this analysis.

That leaves us with a net profit of $126.5 million. Huge, to be sure. But still well shy of the $180 million in GME stock and call options in Sunday’s update from DFV.

Of course, a ton of different things could account for this discrepancy. DFV could have been a bigger buyer of options than is estimated, diversified in different strikes, and had a lower buying price than the average participant and a much higher selling price.

Or simply, not all of the account’s position can be attributed to bullish bets made on GameStop in the past month.

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OpenAI is accelerating the timeline to its public debut, preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus with regulators as early as Friday, according to The Wall Street Journal. That could set the stage for a highly anticipated public listing as early as September.

SoftBank has systematically expanded its financial exposure to OpenAI, securing a highly valuable stake in the company. As of the fiscal year-end, SoftBank’s cumulative investment in OpenAI totaled $34.6 billion, with a fair value of $79.6 billion, and cumulative investment gains totaled $45 billion, according to a SoftBank filing.

For SoftBank, a successful public debut is critical to demonstrating that OpenAI can protect its market position amid intense industry pressure. Investors have grown increasingly anxious that OpenAI is losing ground to competitors like Anthropic, which is currently in talks for a funding round that could push its own valuation past that of OpenAI.

Adding to the upward momentum, SB Energy, the digital infrastructure and clean energy development firm co-owned by SoftBank and Ares Management, confirmed its own confidential draft registration filing for a major US public listing.

This multipronged IPO pipeline has boosted investors’ confidence in billionaire founder Masayoshi Son’s high-conviction AI thesis, showcasing a road map for SoftBank to transition its paper gains into potential liquidity. SoftBank’s stock is up 37% so far this year.

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Chinese EV maker Nio posted Q1 results before markets opened on Thursday, reporting earnings that beat expectations and strong sales guidance for the second quarter. Shares of the company climbed more than 4% in premarket trading.

For the first quarter, Nio reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $0.00 per share, compared to the $0.05 loss per share that Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet had expected.

  • $3.7 billion in revenue, compared to the $3.74 billion consensus estimate.

  • 83,465 vehicle deliveries, slightly exceeding its own forecast of between 80,000 and 83,000.

For Q2, Nio guided for deliveries of between 110,000 and 115,000, compared to estimates of 113,807. The company expects second-quarter revenues to come in between $4.75 billion and $4.99 billion, while analysts are forecasting $4.6 billion.

The Chinese auto industry has seen a surge in exports so far this year, as companies make efforts to combat declining domestic sales. Nio, which is still relatively new to overseas operations, has plans to ship “several thousand” EVs overseas this year.

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Quantum stocks soar after Trump administration awards $2 billion in grants, in deals that include government equity stakes

Quantum computing stocks are soaring in early trading on Thursday after the Trump administration signed a number of letters of intent (LOIs) to award a total of $2 billion in grants to nine quantum companies, in deals that also include equity stakes. In press releases published by IBM, GlobalFoundries, D-Wave Quantum, Infleqtion, and Rigetti, LOIs have been signed with the US Department of Commerce’s CHIPS Research and Development Office.

First reported by The Wall Street Journal, the following companies are part of the overall package, with respective amounts of funding reported:

For IBM, the largest recipient, the funds will be used to build an American quantum chip foundry, supporting the research and development efforts of a new IBM company: Anderon, set to be America’s first pure-play quantum foundry, according to IBM, which will match the federal funding dollar for dollar, plowing $1 billion into Anderon.

The agreements, which will be funded under the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, will be made in exchange for the government taking an unspecified minority equity stake in each of the quantum companies — an unusual federal move that has become common under President Trump, with investments in the rare earth space and chips (most notably Intel).

The process of reaching these deals with the government included “a very rigorous technical evaluation over many, many months,” Infleqtion CEO Matthew Kinsella told Sherwood News. “Every quantum company I have spoken with throughout the supply chain applied and put in a proposal for this CHIPS Act money. So I view this as the US government having done a very, very broad overview of the quantum industry and selected the partners that they believe can execute.”

Rumors and reports of potential government support buoyed quantum computing stocks during September and October of last year, contributing to frenzied, options-fueled gains for many of its most well-known constituents.

Other quantum names not booking government deals today are also ticking up in sympathy, including pure-play IonQ, Quantum Computing, Arqit Quantum, and Honeywell (which backs Quantinuum), following the administration’s show of confidence in the nascent technology. The government is also reportedly working on an executive order focused on the quantum industry, the Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

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