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Gold, the fear trade, has become the ultimate greed trade

The shiny metal cracked above $3,500 per troy ounce for the first time ever.

4/22/25 10:41AM

In real-life terms, gold is what you buy when you want to be flashy, or you’ve made a Very Big Mistake you need to make up for.

In investment terms, gold is what you buy when either a) you have deep distrust in the foundations of the global financial system, or b) you have nothing else you want to buy.

As such, a world where traders are fleeing US assets in part because America is at the source of an upheaval in cross-border commerce has been very, very good for the shiny rock that has no yield.

What was deemed a “barbarous relic” by economist John Maynard Keynes set a fresh record high on Tuesday, cracking above $3,500 per troy ounce. Gold is up nearly 30% year to date versus a 10% decline for the S&P 500.

It’s becoming more clear that what started as a fear trade — a move out of gold because of the perceived unattractiveness of everything else — is morphing into a wide-armed embrace of the yellow metal.

The signs:

Gold was deemed the most crowded trade by fund managers surveyed by Bank of America earlier this month.
A particularly voracious appetite for gold by China:
- Long positions in front-month gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have jumped to a record of 124,366.
- Less than one-third of the way through the year, net inflows into the Shanghai Gold ETF have already hit an annual record. On Tuesday, volumes in this product topped 77.8 million, the highest since its first day of trading.
Stateside, call options traded in SPDR Gold Shares ETF hit a record last week.
The shiny metal is in rarefied technical air, trading more than 20% above its 120-day moving average, per Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets.

“Prior extensions where gold went 20% above or below the moving average were major turning points, every time. Sample size is only 9, but still,” Donnelly wrote, flagging one exception to this rule. “If you believe we are in a similar monetary reset to 1980, you could argue that another doubling of gold is imminent just like gold doubled after going 20% above the moving average in 1980.”

Matt Phillips7m

Constellation, Talen, and NRG surge as BNP analysts see “golden (AI)ge” ahead for them

Power producers Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and NRG jumped Wednesday, benefiting in part from a rosy write-up by analysts at BNP Paribas, who launched coverage of all three at “outperform” and argued that the AI energy trade — a big AI-related winner in recent years that has lagged a bit recently — is due for a second wind.

That view was in a broad note on the independent power producer segment of utilities industry that the analysts published Wednesday, titled “The Golden (AI)ge of IPPs.”

Here’s the gist of it:

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

Luke Kawa4h

Chinese tech giants rally after hiking AI prices

ADRs of Alibaba and Baidu are gaining in early trading after the Chinese tech giants announced AI price hikes.

Alibaba said that it’s hiking the price of its AI chips by up to 34% and raising the cost of cloud storage by 30%, with Baidu planning on increasing AI cloud product prices by up to 30%.

Tech companies in China and the US are aiming to show that AI is not just a technological breakthrough but also a core tool for moneymaking. And, well, raising the price of what you sell is one of the most basic ways to make more money!

“Baidu’s decision to raise AI cloud product prices by as much as 30%, according to Bloomberg News, is a positive development that signals a shift toward monetization rather than price competition,” wrote Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Robert Lea and Jasmine Lyu. “Baidu’s move mirrors similar steps by Tencent, Alibaba, and Zhipu, catalyzed by surging demand for agentic AI following the launch of OpenClaw.”

J. Edward Moreno

Optics stocks rise as executives signal more AI-related demand

Optics companies have rallied this year on expectations of higher demand for the components they make.

Luke Kawa5h

The Iran war is producing the sharpest spike in US gas prices since Hurricane Katrina

The average US national gas price jumped a little more than $0.05 to $3.84 on Wednesday, per the American Automobile Association, its highest level since September 2023.

While front-month West Texas Intermediate futures have come off the boil, down roughly 20% from their March 8 peak, front-month gasoline futures are trading about 2% shy of their 2026 peak as of 8:20 a.m. ET.

Prediction markets currently imply that gas prices will end the month near (but below) $4.30 per gallon.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Prices are up nearly 29% over the past 20 days, per AAA, making this the sharpest such rise in fuel costs in more than two decades.

Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall in the US in late August 2005, was one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters in American history. The damage wreaked havoc on energy infrastructure in the region, prompting gas prices to jump above $3 per gallon by early September from less than $2.30 in early August.

Matt Phillips6h

Oklo up as analysts spotlight “permits progress”

Oklo shares crept up early Wednesday after reporting a wider-than-expected full-year loss Tuesday after the close.

The company isn’t well covered on Wall Street, but a smattering of analysts spotlighted growing capex plans by the company — which not only has no profits, but no revenues — as a potential issue. On the other hand, they gave credit to the nuclear power startup for progress in securing key government permits and approvals.

Barclays (price target of $82, “overweight” rating): “Oklo advanced its momentum with DOE approval of a nuclear safety design agreement for Aurora at INL [Idaho National Laboratory], paving the way for 2028 operations. Management guided higher 2026-27 capex, strengthened fuel supply investments, and enters 2026 with an increase in liquidity.”

Citi (price target $73.50, “neutral/high risk” rating): “Despite strong execution, reaction may skew negative given higher than anticipated 4Q Opex, continued capital raise in Jan, and robust 2026 capex.”

Needham & Co. (price target $73, “buy” rating): “The company did not disclose Aurora unit costs, FY2026 CapEx ($350–450MM) came in above expectations, and [Aurora/Idaho National Laboratory] timing shifted modestly to 2028. We lower our PT to $73 (from $135) on reduced outer-year deployment (~3 GW by 2035) and a lower multiple, but maintain Buy. Execution, cost visibility, and fuel supply remain key gating factors.”

As of December 31, 2025, the company was well capitalized to continue burning cash, reporting cash and marketable securities worth some ~$1.4 billion.

Oklo reports larger-than-expected full-year loss per share

Barclays (price target of $82, “overweight” rating): “Oklo advanced its momentum with DOE approval of a nuclear safety design agreement for Aurora at INL [Idaho National Laboratory], paving the way for 2028 operations. Management guided higher 2026-27 capex, strengthened fuel supply investments, and enters 2026 with an increase in liquidity.”

Citi (price target $73.50, “neutral/high risk” rating): “Despite strong execution, reaction may skew negative given higher than anticipated 4Q Opex, continued capital raise in Jan, and robust 2026 capex.”

Needham & Co. (price target $73, “buy” rating): “The company did not disclose Aurora unit costs, FY2026 CapEx ($350–450MM) came in above expectations, and [Aurora/Idaho National Laboratory] timing shifted modestly to 2028. We lower our PT to $73 (from $135) on reduced outer-year deployment (~3 GW by 2035) and a lower multiple, but maintain Buy. Execution, cost visibility, and fuel supply remain key gating factors.”