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Nothin’ but net income

JPMorgan jumps after posting better fourth-quarter results than anyone on Wall Street dreamed

America’s largest bank crushed analysts’ expectations.

Luke Kawa

Shares of the largest US bank are moving slightly higher in the premarket after net income soared by 50% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period in 2023.

On many key profitability metrics, JPMorgan not only surpassed the median projection, but exceeded every analyst’s expectation, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

  • Adjusted earnings per share: $4.81 (consensus $4.10, high estimate $4.43)

  • Net interest income — the spread between the interest payments made by borrowers and how much the bank spends funding its deposits — of $23.35 billion (consensus $22.9 billion, high estimate $23.1 billion)

  • Net interest margin — the difference between those aforementioned interest rates — was 2.61% (consensus 2.53%, high estimate 2.58%)

  • Investment banking fees of $2.48 billion (consensus $2.41 billion)

  • Return on equity — the net income as a share of shareholders’ equity (assets less liabilities) — of 17% (consensus 14.12%, high estimate 15.76%)

  • Trading income: $7.05 billion (consensus $6.66 billion, high estimate $6.8 billion)

Figures related to credit quality were a little more mixed: total loans borrowers haven’t made scheduled payments on were higher than any analyst on the Street thought, but the amount of money the bank has given out that it doesn’t expect to get back was basically in line with expectations, and the cash it set aside in reserve to cover these bad loans was lower than anticipated.

The stock was initially trading nearly 4% higher before paring those gains.

“Businesses are more optimistic about the economy, and they are encouraged by expectations for a more pro-growth agenda and improved collaboration between government and business,” CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon said.

He did, however, warn that stubborn inflation and fraught geopolitical tensions served as key risks to the outlook.

Oh, and you might recall when shares of the bank and its peers were battered in September when President Daniel Pinto said that analysts’ projections for 2025 net-interest income were “not very reasonable” and “will be lower” than $89.5 billion.

Well, the bank’s guidance for this key metric in 2025 from this morning: about $90 billion, and roughly $94 billion if you include its trading business.

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SoftBank rallies on OpenAI and SB Energy IPO plans; its Japanese-traded stock notches best day since 2000

SoftBank shares skyrocketed in Tokyo trading, notching their biggest daily gain since 2000, boosted by news about planned IPOs at OpenAI, in which SoftBank has a sizable stake, and SoftBank’s own SB Energy unit. ADRs of SoftBank traded in the US rallied, too.

OpenAI is accelerating the timeline to its public debut, preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus with regulators as early as Friday, according to The Wall Street Journal. That could set the stage for a highly anticipated public listing as early as September.

SoftBank has systematically expanded its financial exposure to OpenAI, securing a highly valuable stake in the company. As of the fiscal year-end, SoftBank’s cumulative investment in OpenAI totaled $34.6 billion, with a fair value of $79.6 billion, and cumulative investment gains totaled $45 billion, according to a SoftBank filing.

For SoftBank, a successful public debut is critical to demonstrating that OpenAI can protect its market position amid intense industry pressure. Investors have grown increasingly anxious that OpenAI is losing ground to competitors like Anthropic, which is currently in talks for a funding round that could push its own valuation past that of OpenAI.

Adding to the upward momentum, SB Energy, the digital infrastructure and clean energy development firm co-owned by SoftBank and Ares Management, confirmed its own confidential draft registration filing for a major US public listing.

This multipronged IPO pipeline has boosted investors’ confidence in billionaire founder Masayoshi Son’s high-conviction AI thesis, showcasing a road map for SoftBank to transition its paper gains into potential liquidity. SoftBank’s stock is up 37% so far this year.

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Nio posts better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and forecasts strong Q2 sales

Chinese EV maker Nio posted Q1 results before markets opened on Thursday, reporting earnings that beat expectations and strong sales guidance for the second quarter. Shares of the company climbed more than 4% in premarket trading.

For the first quarter, Nio reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $0.00 per share, compared to the $0.05 loss per share that Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet had expected.

  • $3.7 billion in revenue, compared to the $3.74 billion consensus estimate.

  • 83,465 vehicle deliveries, slightly exceeding its own forecast of between 80,000 and 83,000.

For Q2, Nio guided for deliveries of between 110,000 and 115,000, compared to estimates of 113,807. The company expects second-quarter revenues to come in between $4.75 billion and $4.99 billion, while analysts are forecasting $4.6 billion.

The Chinese auto industry has seen a surge in exports so far this year, as companies make efforts to combat declining domestic sales. Nio, which is still relatively new to overseas operations, has plans to ship “several thousand” EVs overseas this year.

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