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Hong Kong, October 08 2017: JPMorgan Chase & Co. building in Central, Hong Kong . JPMorgan is a Swiss global financial services company, One of big financial company in the world
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Banks bludgeoned as JPMorgan says it won’t make as much money as Wall Street hopes next year

Analysts’ estimate for net interest income is “not very reasonable,” says JPMorgan’s president

Luke Kawa

The biggest US bank is having its largest one-day drop since June 2020.

Shares of JPMorgan are off about 6.7% as of 12:40 ET after bank President Daniel Pinto warned that Wall Street’s forecasts for the year ahead are too rosy. That’s a worse showing than the bank’s 6.5% decline after reporting earnings in April.

At an industry conference on Tuesday, Pinto said current expectations for 2025 net interest income (the difference between what a bank earns on its loan book and other asset holdings and what it pays out to depositors) are “not very reasonable” and “will be lower” than the $89.5 billion consensus estimate.

A bad day for US financials was not on Tuesday’s bingo card after reports that a planned increase in bank capital requirements is getting watered down.

But the group is at the center of the down day in the stock market, with the Invesco KBW Bank ETF off 3.6% as of 12:40pm ET.

Analysts have been expecting a substantial convergence in earnings growth between the upper echelon of megacap tech and the rest of Corporate America in the quarters to come.

This update from JPMorgan casts doubt on the potential for a broad-based cyclical recovery in earnings. And a closer look at those sturdy profit estimates reveals just how reliant they are on an AI boom that may have reached its best-before date. 

“Overall, fiscal year estimates are holding up better than historical trends would imply,” write Terence Malone and Rob Bate, members of the equity product management group at Barclays. “The resiliency of fiscal year 2024 estimates is still solely attributable to Big Tech; without these six stocks, negative revisions to S&P 500 earnings per share would have been worse than usual at this point in the year.”

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

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