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Markets sell off as Mideast conflict shows no sign of ending

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all fell while oil rose.

All three major US indexes fell on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite officially falling into a correction as the markets reacted to waves of news from the conflict in the Middle East that raised doubts that a ceasefire would happen. The sell-off accelerated following a Cabinet meeting in which President Trump said Iran needed to make a deal or the US would “just keep blowing them away,” and news that Iran saw the US’s exit proposal as “one-sided and unfair.”

Thursday was the worst day for stocks since the start of the war with Iran. The S&P 500 dropped 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.4%.

All sectors ended the day in the red except energy, with US oil futures rising above $94.

Stocks moving higher:

Energy stocks outperformed, with refiners and marketers like Valero and Phillips 66 expected to benefit from higher oil prices.
Natural gas producers APA Corporation, EOG Resources, and Diamondback Energy also posted healthy gains.
Ethanol-exposed companies Rex American Resources and Green Plains climbed following the Trump administration’s move yesterday to waive summertime limitations on the sale of E15 gas.
As the Department of Homeland Security shutdown drags on, resulting in some excruciating airport wait times, rental car companies Avis and Hertz got a boost.
Mortgage firm Better Home & Finance surged on the launch of a new product allowing crypto-backed mortgages through Fannie Mae.

Stocks moving lower:

Super Micro Computer sank on news that shareholders are suing the company, alleging securities fraud around China chip smuggling.
Meta and Google fell following Wednesday’s landmark decision that found the two tech giants liable in a social media addiction case.
Memory stocks like Sandisk, Seagate Technology Holdings, and Western Digital fell for a second straight day after Google announced details of a new algorithm called TurboQuant that could lower the amount of memory needed for AI operations.
Optics stocks including Ciena Corp. and Corning dove.
Construction and engineering companies that have been feasting on the data center boom, like Quanta Services, Comfort Systems USA, and Emcor, also fell.

Matt Phillips1h

Nasdaq Composite enters correction territory, joining small-cap Russell 2000

The Nasdaq Composite closed down 10.9% from its high of 24,019.99 — reached during intraday trading on October 29 — putting the tech-heavy benchmark conclusively into a “correction.”

A correction is Wall Street’s term of art for a sell-off that’s graver than a garden-variety slump, but not quite as dire as a bear market. (A bear market commences when prices are down 20% from a peak.)

While the proximate cause in the Nasdaq turndown seems to be t he war — the Composite is down more than 5% since the start of the conflict on February 28 — it’s worth noting that the index had been stalled out for three months prior to that.

At least Nasdaq investors aren’t alone: the small-cap Russell 2000 slipped into a correction last Friday. The S&P 500 has held up better, relatively speaking, though it, too, is down more than 7% from its intraday high of 7,002.28, which it touched on January 28.

Max Knoblauch5h

Hertz and Avis Budget appear to be benefiting as travelers balk at airport wait times

As the Department of Homeland Security shutdown drags on, resulting in some excruciating airport wait times, rental car companies Avis and Hertz are seeing a boost.

Both companies are up more than 10% on Thursday, continuing a weeklong trend of trading momentum. From market close on March 20 to midday Thursday, Avis shares are up about 44%, while Hertz shares are up 24%.

Would-be flyers may be pivoting from sky to highway, even as gas prices climb. According to TravelPulse, search traffic for Hertz is up 15% in recent days.

The TSA is experiencing the longest wait times in its 24-year history, officials have said. Airfares rising as jet fuel prices remain elevated is likely adding to travelers’ decision.

Hertz Reports Spike in Car Rental Searches as US Airports Deal With Long TSA Lines

Would-be flyers may be pivoting from sky to highway, even as gas prices climb. According to TravelPulse, search traffic for Hertz is up 15% in recent days.

The TSA is experiencing the longest wait times in its 24-year history, officials have said. Airfares rising as jet fuel prices remain elevated is likely adding to travelers’ decision.

Saleah Blancaflor5h

US gas prices increase $1 in 1 month as markets expect $4 per gallon in coming days

As gas demand remains on the rise in the midst of spring break season and crude oil prices rise as hopes the Iran war will draw down decrease, gas prices have steadily risen.

According to the American Automobile Association, the national average price for a gallon of regular gas is up $0.10 from the previous week and up $1 since last month. AAA reports that there was a steep rise from $2.98 on February 26 to $3.98 as of March 26.

AAA said that average gas prices could hit $4 per gallon in the next few days, which would mark the first time since August 2022 that they’ve hit that level.

According to the Energy Information Administration, demand for gas rose last week from 8.72 million barrels per day to 8.92 million. The data also shows that domestic gas supply fell from 244 million barrels to 241.4 million. Meanwhile, gas production grew last week, averaging 9.7 million barrels per day.

Prediction markets show traders pricing in a 61% chance the price of gas could surpass $4 by the end of the month. As AAA projects that gas prices could continue to rise in the next few weeks, markets also imply there’s a 42% and 40% chance gas could finish roughly around $4.02 or $4.04 per gallon, respectively, by March 31.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

National gas prices increase one dollar in one month

AAA said that average gas prices could hit $4 per gallon in the next few days, which would mark the first time since August 2022 that they’ve hit that level.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Max Knoblauch6h

Ethanol players climb following the Trump administration’s move to waive summer gas regulations

Ethanol-exposed companies are climbing on Thursday, following the Trump administration’s move yesterday to waive summertime limitations on the sale of E15 gas, a blend of fuel containing 15% ethanol.

Sale of the higher-ethanol blend is limited in about half of the US over the summer months to lessen smog. Including this year, those limitations have been waived for five summers in a row. According to Axios reporting, E15 typically costs about $0.10 to $0.40 less per gallon while delivering slightly lower fuel economy.

Ethanol companies are climbing on the decision, with Rex American Resources up more than 5%, Green Plains up 3%, and Gevo up about 2%. Rex and Gevo also closed higher on Wednesday.

Stocks fall as oil prices rise

Sometimes there’s only one story in the markets. This is one of those times.

Matt Phillips7h