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Palantir shareholder Peter Thiel
Palantir’s largest individual shareholder, Peter Thiel. (Nordin Catic/Getty Images)
Dissent

Morgan Stanley still skeptical on Palantir, sees 25% drop

Analysts at the bank rated the stock “underweight” and slapped a price target of $60 on the shares.

Matt Phillips

Morgan Stanley analysts still think that Palantir shares are overvalued after the nearly 390% rocket ride they’ve had over the past 12 months.

In a report Monday, Morgan Stanley analysts admitted getting some things wrong when they cut their rating on the shares to “underweight” in late August 2023. Palantir’s sales to corporations have been better than expected, thanks to its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) offering, as well as better deals than expected with the US government. Palantir also kept better control over costs than they thought likely, boosting free cash flow.

Even so, they say, there is an insane amount of growth baked into the shares at their current prices:

“While acknowledging this positive inflection and looking for ways to get more constructive on shares, the lack of visibility of material estimate revisions leaves PLTR trading too far ahead of the company's intrinsic value to justify a rating upgrade.”

Of course, given the mood of the markets, fundamentals seem relatively unimportant to traders. In other words, the stock can keep outrunning the basic business logic on sheer momentum.

In their note, Morgan Stanley analysts acknowledged that some optimism on Palantir stems from links between the company and the incoming Trump admin.

“Bullish investors have pointed to several ties between Palantir and the incoming Trump administration as potential tailwinds for the stock going into next year. The ties investors point to range from 1) Palantir being co-founded by Peter Thiel, who hired Vice President-elect JD Vance at his venture capital firm Mithril Capital and was reportedly a major donor to his past political campaigns, to 2) Elon Musk on December 8 sharing a presentation by Palantir CEO Alex Karp on X with the words ‘based.’

We see a risk of any such announcements leading shares higher in the near-term.”

Their price target for the defense-tech juggernaut is $60 over the next 12 to 18 months, or about 25% below its current price. For the record, Morgan Stanley analysts aren’t the only ones finding it impossible to justify the shares of the stock on a traditional business basis of expected sales, profits, and growth. According to FactSet, the official Wall Street consensus target price for the stock is about $46 a share, about 40% below where they’re currently changing hands.

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Saleah Blancaflor

US gas prices hit the highest level since the Iran war began, at $4.18 per gallon

US gas prices climbed on Tuesday to their highest level in four years as peace talks between the US and Iran are at a standstill.

The national average gas price is currently $4.18 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association. The 1.6% rise is the highest percentage increase in more than a month — and the last time the price of gas was this high was in April 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Less than a week ago, AAA reported that US gas prices had gone down to $4.03 per gallon, giving drivers a very brief sigh of relief.

Oil prices also continued to rise on Tuesday as negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain at a deadlock. Additionally, the UAE made a bombshell announcement that it’s leaving OPEC, adding to the disruption in the oil market.

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Oil prices also continued to rise on Tuesday as negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain at a deadlock. Additionally, the UAE made a bombshell announcement that it’s leaving OPEC, adding to the disruption in the oil market.

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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UAE quits OPEC, citing desire to be “meeting the urgent needs of the market”

In a bombshell move, the United Arab Emirates announced that it will be leaving OPEC (and OPEC+) on May 1.

The Middle Eastern country will soon chart its own course on how much oil to supply to global markets, which have endured significant disruptions in light of the Iran war.

“This decision is taken at the right time in our view because it’s not going to hugely impact the market: the market is undersupplied,” said Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei, according to Bloomberg.

The UAE is the third-largest producer within the oil cartel and among the world’s 10 largest, based on April data. Despite the positive implications for supply, the United States Oil Fund LP is still up about 2.5% as of 9:52 a.m. ET.

“After leaving OPEC, the UAE will continue its responsible role by gradually and thoughtfully increasing production, in line with demand and market conditions,” per the country’s official news agency, which added that the decision reflects “the state’s commitment to contribute effectively to meeting the urgent needs of the market, while geopolitical fluctuations continue in the near term through the disturbances in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.”

The UAE’s access to global markets is less negatively impacted by the closure of this important oil shipping choke point than many other producers in the region, as the Port of Fujairah lies outside the Persian Gulf. However, energy infrastructure at this port has also come under fire during the conflict for precisely this reason.

In the last few weeks, the UAE has a) sounded out the US on a swap line b) pulled billions of dollars out of Pakistan, an ally c) left Opec, where it was one of the biggest members by quota.

— Joseph Cotterill (@jsphctrl.ft.com) April 28, 2026 at 8:34 AM

While the timing of this move may come as a surprise, fractures between the UAE and some of largest producers in OPEC (and the expanded OPEC+ alliance) have arguably been long in the making. The UAE was the strongest advocate for a more aggressive boost to output during OPEC’s postpandemic slow return of supply, arguing that its productive capacity was too low. Eventually, the country won an increase to their baseline.

The UAE’s exodus “leaves OPEC even more Saudi-centric as the main holder of spare capacity and reduces the group’s future ability to manage prices — particularly given Russia’s inability to ramp production up and down as required,” wrote Viresh Kanabar, an investment strategist at Macro Hive. “More broadly, the closure of the Strait is likely to have lasting consequences for regional players and markets, and the UAE’s exit from OPEC is one example.”

markets

Match Group invests $100 million in Grindr rival Sniffies, with future option to acquire the startup

Tinder owner Match Group has invested $100 million in Sniffies — a gay hookup site that’s earned a reputation as a raunchier rival to Grindr — in a deal that gives it an option to acquire the startup in the future.

It would not be Match’s first investment turned acquisition, having pulled the same strategy with Hinge, its currently fastest-growing app. Match will be sunsetting its existing gay dating app, Archer, and focusing its attention on Sniffies, the company told Bloomberg. The announcement sent Grindr slipping in after-hours trading.

Unlike Grindr, which must abide by Apple’s App Store rules, the privately held Sniffies is a website and isn’t bound by the same restrictions. Users can make their profile photos explicit images and enjoy wider anonymity. This has, however, subjected the platform to increasingly common government restrictions on porn sites.

Sniffies has 3 million monthly active users globally, according to Match Group, compared to the 15.2 million on Grindr in the last quarter of 2025. Still, it has grown massively in popularity, clocking 60 million page visits in March, up 60% from last year, per Similarweb figures.

Sniffies founder and CEO Blake Gallagher said the investment “unlocks our ability to move faster on the things that matter most: stronger trust & safety, better product, and a more dynamic network.”

Unlike Grindr, which must abide by Apple’s App Store rules, the privately held Sniffies is a website and isn’t bound by the same restrictions. Users can make their profile photos explicit images and enjoy wider anonymity. This has, however, subjected the platform to increasingly common government restrictions on porn sites.

Sniffies has 3 million monthly active users globally, according to Match Group, compared to the 15.2 million on Grindr in the last quarter of 2025. Still, it has grown massively in popularity, clocking 60 million page visits in March, up 60% from last year, per Similarweb figures.

Sniffies founder and CEO Blake Gallagher said the investment “unlocks our ability to move faster on the things that matter most: stronger trust & safety, better product, and a more dynamic network.”

markets

Corning sinks after posting underwhelming Q2 guidance, despite Q1 beat

Corning reported Q1 results before the bell on Tuesday that beat Wall Street’s expectations, but shares still fell from the company’s softer second-quarter guidance.

For the first quarter, Corning reported:

  • Non-GAAP core earnings per share of $0.70, just beating consensus analyst expectations of $0.69, according to FactSet.

  • Core sales of $4.34 billion vs. a $4.30 billion consensus estimate from analysts.

The fly in the Corning ointment was the outlook for Q2 2026. The maker of fiber-optic networking equipment now expects core sales to grow to approximately $4.6 billion, slightly lower than $4.65 billion forecast by analysts. Core EPS is expected to reach a range of $0.73 to $0.77, largely in line with the $0.75 Wall Street consensus.

Management highlighted the company’s “powerful momentum across our Market-Access Platforms,” or five fast-growing industries ranging from optics to mobile consumer electronics, but also noted that an additional $30 million of expense is expected in the second quarter compared to the first, as it upgrades and repairs its solar wafer facility to a “permanent power system.”

After such a hot run, with the stock up 85% so far this year, it’s no wonder that it’s taking a breather on results that don’t give analysts enough excuses to meaningfully bump their forecasts.

Indeed, Corning is one of a number of fiber-optic networking stocks — including Lumentum, Coherent, and Ciena Corp. — that have soared this year. They all handle slightly different aspects of the same undertaking: using light and electrical signals to almost instantly transfer the data that AI technology both consumes and produces.

Demand for their products has jumped as AI’s requirements for bandwidth, speed, and power have moved beyond the capacity of long-standing networking technologies, such as the copper cables that usually carry signals using electricity.

markets

JetBlue reports deeper-than-expected Q1 loss on elevated fuel costs

JetBlue reported its first-quarter earnings before markets opened on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares have ticked down about 2% in premarket trading.

For Q1, JetBlue reported:

  • An adjusted loss of $0.87 per share, compared to Wall Street estimates of a loss of $0.73 per share from analysts polled by FactSet.

  • Total revenue of $2.24 billion, in line with estimates.

JetBlue said it expects to pay between $4.13 and $4.28 per gallon for fuel in the second quarter, up from the $2.40-per-gallon average in the same period last year. The carrier also said it expects to recapture between 30% and 40% of fuel costs in Q2, and 100% by early next year. The airline forecast a boost in capacity by between 1.5% and 4.5% in the second quarter, compared to the Wall Street consensus of 3.2% growth.

Like its major US rivals, JetBlue has been pummeled by higher fuel costs amid the war in Iran despite reporting strong demand. Late last month, JetBlue became the first major US carrier to hike its bag fees in an effort to offset fuel costs. The rest of the industry soon followed.

In the coming days, JetBlue could see significant impact from the outcome of reports that the Trump administration is considering extending a lifeline to low-budget rival Spirit in the form of a loan of up to $500 million.

Like its larger rival United Airlines, JetBlue has reportedly been mulling merger partners of its own. A common industry theory is that United’s efforts to merge with American could have been a means to actually attempt a smaller (but still huge) merger with JetBlue.

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