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Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg speaks with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella (Charles Platiau/Getty Images)

Morgan Stanley touts a $70 billion boost for megacap tech companies from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

Tax tweaks are poised to give a huge lift to five of the Magnificent 7’s free cash flows — and they just might send that extra money to another member of the cohort!

Luke Kawa

Morgan Stanley has dotted its I’s and crossed its T’s to figure out just how much of a near-term boost the budget reconciliation bill dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” will give to the cash flows of megacap tech companies.

TL;DR: a more than $70 billion improvement to this year’s free cash flow (that is, operating cash flow less capex) for Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple. If Morgan Stanleys estimates are in the ballpark, this would be the equivalent of adding more free cash flow than Meta generated in 2024 as a whole ($54 billion).

MSFCFTech

What’s fueling this?

  • 100% bonus depreciation on qualified property in its first year in service is restored;

  • Domestic R&D expenses are fully deductible the year they occur, along with allowing retroactive deductions for domestic R&D costs from 2022-24 that were deferred; and

  • Shifts to how foreign-derived earnings are taxed.

In a note titled “The Big Beautiful Tech Tax Bill,” Morgan Stanley’s team, led by Todd Castagno, suggests that the effects could begin showing up this quarter, while cautioning that the ultimate impact “could vary meaningfully.”

These tax tweaks are intended to spur investment. It’s unlikely that this is a major dial-mover on the hundreds of billions that tech companies are dead set on shelling out to enhance their AI footprints, but hey, it doesn’t hurt.

“Rather than altering core investment and capital return strategies, we think excess capital could be used for reinvestment in AI infrastructure and data centers or added strategic M&A flexibility,” the team wrote.

On the one hand, it’s nice to have more cash as you spend it hand over fist. On the other hand, it’s not like these companies aren’t mulling other options to access money for AI-related capex, and capital markets would likely be happy to finance any such endeavors.

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Southwest’s first full quarter charging for checked bags drives it to record Q3 revenue

Southwest became the third major airline to report its third-quarter earnings when it dropped its results after the bell Wednesday.

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Moderna drops after reporting trial for birth defect vaccine failed

Moderna dropped in after-hours trading Wednesday after it reported that its experimental vaccine for cytomegalovirus (CMV), which can cause birth defects, failed in a late-stage trial.

The company is perhaps best known for being tapped by the government to quickly develop a vaccine for COVID-19 in 2020, which remains its single source of revenue. Investors have been eager for signs that it will add more vaccines to its portfolio soon.

The CMV vaccine was the main product in Modernas pipeline prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the most recent results, the vaccine was only between 6% and 23% effective in blocking infection, which was “well below” the company’s target of at least 49%, the company said in a statement.

In statements announcing the results, Modernas leaders described the results at “disappointing.” The company fell more than 5% after-hours and is down more than 35% this year.

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Carvana plunges as investors respond to another subprime lender’s bankruptcy filing

Used car retailer Carvana is plunging on Wednesday, with the stock on pace for its worst day since auto tariffs took effect in April.

Likely spooking investors is a fresh bankruptcy filing by PrimaLend, which specializes in financing for dealerships focused on subprime borrowers (customers with lower credit scores, typically below 600, as defined by Experian). The news follows last month’s bankruptcy filing by another subprime auto lender, Tricolor Holdings.

Carvana doesn’t appear to work directly with PrimaLend, but it does likely have significant exposure to subprime loans. According to a January report by Hindenburg Research, which was shorting Carvana, 44% of the loans Carvana packages into asset-backed securities (ABS) are classified as nonprime (601-660 credit scores). More than 80% of its recent nonprime ABS deals had average FICO scores in the “deep subprime” range, or the riskiest levels, according to the report. Carvana at the time called the report “intentionally misleading and inaccurate.”

Carvana has massive growth goals, saying earlier this year that it aims to sell 3 million retail units per year within 5 to 10 years. (Wall Street expects it to sell about 580,000 units this year.) Lower-income buyers could be a significant part of that growth.

Following Tricolor’s implosion last month, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said: “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more. Everyone should be forewarned on this one.” With investors pouring out of Carvana on Tuesday, it seems Wall Street isn’t taking that warning lightly.

There is likely also some momentum pullback baked into Carvana’s drop: the stock, which has been a favorite among retail traders, is still up 58% this year, even after Wednesday’s drop.

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