Markets
TOPSHOT-FRANCE-TECHNOLOGY-POLITICS-GOVERNMENT-ECONOMY
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg speaks with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella (Charles Platiau/Getty Images)

Morgan Stanley touts a $70 billion boost for megacap tech companies from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

Tax tweaks are poised to give a huge lift to five of the Magnificent 7’s free cash flows — and they just might send that extra money to another member of the cohort!

Luke Kawa

Morgan Stanley has dotted its I’s and crossed its T’s to figure out just how much of a near-term boost the budget reconciliation bill dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” will give to the cash flows of megacap tech companies.

TL;DR: a more than $70 billion improvement to this year’s free cash flow (that is, operating cash flow less capex) for Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple. If Morgan Stanleys estimates are in the ballpark, this would be the equivalent of adding more free cash flow than Meta generated in 2024 as a whole ($54 billion).

MSFCFTech

What’s fueling this?

  • 100% bonus depreciation on qualified property in its first year in service is restored;

  • Domestic R&D expenses are fully deductible the year they occur, along with allowing retroactive deductions for domestic R&D costs from 2022-24 that were deferred; and

  • Shifts to how foreign-derived earnings are taxed.

In a note titled “The Big Beautiful Tech Tax Bill,” Morgan Stanley’s team, led by Todd Castagno, suggests that the effects could begin showing up this quarter, while cautioning that the ultimate impact “could vary meaningfully.”

These tax tweaks are intended to spur investment. It’s unlikely that this is a major dial-mover on the hundreds of billions that tech companies are dead set on shelling out to enhance their AI footprints, but hey, it doesn’t hurt.

“Rather than altering core investment and capital return strategies, we think excess capital could be used for reinvestment in AI infrastructure and data centers or added strategic M&A flexibility,” the team wrote.

On the one hand, it’s nice to have more cash as you spend it hand over fist. On the other hand, it’s not like these companies aren’t mulling other options to access money for AI-related capex, and capital markets would likely be happy to finance any such endeavors.

More Markets

See all Markets
markets

Alaska Airlines dips following weaker-than-expected 2026 earnings guidance

Alaska Airlines, America’s fifth-largest airline, reported its fourth-quarter and full-year results for 2025 after the market closed Thursday. Its shares fell 2% in after hours trading.

The airline reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of $0.43 per share, beating the $0.11 expected by Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet. Its Q4 passenger revenue climbed 2% to $3.25 billion.

For the current quarter, Alaska guided for a 1% to 2% increase in capacity and an adjusted loss of $1.50 to $0.50 per share, compared to the $0.77 loss per share expected by analysts. The airline forecast full-year earnings of between $3.50 and $6.50 per share for 2026. The $5 per share midpoint falls short of analyst estimates of $5.52.

“To hit the higher end of our guidance range we would require sustained macroeconomic recovery in 2026, at or improving on trends seen in the first three weeks of the year, and for fuel prices to stabilize,” the company said in its report.

Earlier this month, the carrier placed its largest ever plane order, securing 110 Boeing jets to support its international growth ambitions. It plans to add flights to Rome, London, and Iceland this summer, and has said it will boost its premium seat offerings this year — in-line with a wider trend of travel trends reflecting a “K-shaped economy.”

Intel Logo In front of Building

Intel slumps after Q1 guidance disappoints

The bad outlook offset strong Q4 results.

markets

Plug Power jumps amid surge in call activity as CEO Andy Marsh hosts AMA

Plug Power surged on Thursday, jumping nearly 17% amid elevated call activity as outgoing CEO Andy Marsh hosted an “ask me anything” on the r/PlugPowerStock subreddit.

As many as 192,581 call options changed hands, more than 4x the 20-day average — call options with a strike price of $4 that expire in mid-June were the most active contract.

Marsh’s appearance was aimed at building support for the board’s recommendations that its investors vote in favor of three proposals at a special meeting of shareholders slated for next week. These proposals include: allowing votes to be decided by a majority of voters rather than a majority of shareholders, enabling an increase in the company’s share count, and a third measure to delay this special meeting in the event that there aren’t enough votes for either of those two proposals to pass.

During the session, Marsh made the following points:

  • Management really doesn’t want to have to do a reverse stock split, but would feel forced to do so if the second proposal fails to pass. Per a recent filing from Plug, “Without additional authorized shares, the Company will not be able to: meet its contractual obligations to increase authorized shares of common stock by February 28, 2026; raise capital necessary for operations and growth; and execute on its business plans and strategy.”

  • Plug plans to lean even more into opportunities to offer power to AI data center customers, with Marsh writing that incoming CEO Jose Luis Crespo will offer more details on this in a follow-up AMA scheduled for March.

markets

Meta shares rally as Jefferies says it’s a bargain relative to Mag 7 peers

Shares of Meta rallied over 5% on Thursday, as Jefferies analyst Brent Thill doubled down on his buy rating for the company, calling the stock a relative bargain compared to its Magnificent 7 peers. The analyst set a price target of $910, well above the $645 where the stock is trading today.

News out of the World Economic Forum this week that Meta’s first models from its revamped AI teams are very goodaligns with Thill’s argument that the company is well positioned to get back in the AI race with the “all-star model,” which is expected to be released in the first half of the year.

Recent cuts to Meta’s Reality Labs also signal that the company is focusing its spending where it matters. The Jefferies note added that the recent monetization of Threads via ads will help boost revenue.

Next week, Meta reports its fourth-quarter earnings, and Thill expects that even if the company raises its 2026 capital expenditure outlook, investors won’t be spooked, as the company has been clear that spending may continue to be high.

Recent cuts to Meta’s Reality Labs also signal that the company is focusing its spending where it matters. The Jefferies note added that the recent monetization of Threads via ads will help boost revenue.

Next week, Meta reports its fourth-quarter earnings, and Thill expects that even if the company raises its 2026 capital expenditure outlook, investors won’t be spooked, as the company has been clear that spending may continue to be high.

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.