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Netflix sinks on lower-than-expected earnings forecast

Netflix’s report dropped on the same day it officially went all-cash in its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery.

Shares of streaming giant Netflix are down more than 4% in after-hours trading on Tuesday following the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings report.

Netflix issued earnings guidance of $0.76 per share for the first quarter of 2026, below the $0.80 per share expected by Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet. The streamer expects an operating margin of 32.1% for the quarter, up from 31.7% in the same quarter of 2025.

For the full year, Netflix issued revenue guidance of $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion — with a midpoint slightly ahead of Wall Street’s $51 billion estimate.

For the quarter ended in December, the streamer posted adjusted earnings of $0.56 per share, slightly below FactSet estimates of $0.57. The company reported revenue of $12.05 billion, beating estimates of $11.97 billion and Netflix’s own forecast of $11.96 billion.

For every $1 of revenue Netflix booked last year, the streamer put $0.38 into creating or acquiring new shows or movies. That’s a significant shift from its content reinvestment habits a decade ago, when the recently wrapped “Stranger Things” had first debuted.

In absolute values, Netflix is investing more into content; it’s just making more money, too. Lucrative ad-supported tiers have boosted the company’s sales figures, with ad revenue growing to more than $1.5 billion in 2025.

Investors are likely awaiting further details on Netflix’s effort to acquire the streaming and studio assets of Warner Bros. Discovery on its Tuesday evening earnings call. WBD has repeatedly backed Netflix’s $83 billion offer while rejecting a $30-per-share bid by Paramount Skydance.

Earlier on Tuesday, Netflix further boosted its chances by amending its offer to be all-cash — a welcome development for WBD investors given Netflix’s stock decline after the earnings report. Still, the deal may face regulator scrutiny amid fierce opposition within the entertainment industry and Congress.

In its filing on Tuesday, Netflix said acquiring WBD’s HBO Max would allow it to offer more personalized and flexible subscription options, better meeting the diverse preferences of our global audience.”

As the Warner Bros. bidding war has intensified, event contracts focused on the future owner of the HBO parent company have begun to swing heavily in favor of Netflix. As of market close Tuesday, Netflix’s odds have climbed to 71%, compared to Paramount’s 16%. (Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Still, investors don’t appear obsessed with the idea of Netflix leading entertainment consolidation. Since the streamer’s deal for WBD was announced on December 5, its shares have dropped 13% as of Tuesday’s close.

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

markets

US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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