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Netflix sinks on lower-than-expected earnings forecast

Netflix’s report dropped on the same day it officially went all-cash in its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery.

Shares of streaming giant Netflix are down more than 4% in after-hours trading on Tuesday following the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings report.

Netflix issued earnings guidance of $0.76 per share for the first quarter of 2026, below the $0.80 per share expected by Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet. The streamer expects an operating margin of 32.1% for the quarter, up from 31.7% in the same quarter of 2025.

For the full year, Netflix issued revenue guidance of $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion — with a midpoint slightly ahead of Wall Street’s $51 billion estimate.

For the quarter ended in December, the streamer posted adjusted earnings of $0.56 per share, slightly below FactSet estimates of $0.57. The company reported revenue of $12.05 billion, beating estimates of $11.97 billion and Netflix’s own forecast of $11.96 billion.

For every $1 of revenue Netflix booked last year, the streamer put $0.38 into creating or acquiring new shows or movies. That’s a significant shift from its content reinvestment habits a decade ago, when the recently wrapped “Stranger Things” had first debuted.

In absolute values, Netflix is investing more into content; it’s just making more money, too. Lucrative ad-supported tiers have boosted the company’s sales figures, with ad revenue growing to more than $1.5 billion in 2025.

Investors are likely awaiting further details on Netflix’s effort to acquire the streaming and studio assets of Warner Bros. Discovery on its Tuesday evening earnings call. WBD has repeatedly backed Netflix’s $83 billion offer while rejecting a $30-per-share bid by Paramount Skydance.

Earlier on Tuesday, Netflix further boosted its chances by amending its offer to be all-cash — a welcome development for WBD investors given Netflix’s stock decline after the earnings report. Still, the deal may face regulator scrutiny amid fierce opposition within the entertainment industry and Congress.

In its filing on Tuesday, Netflix said acquiring WBD’s HBO Max would allow it to offer more personalized and flexible subscription options, better meeting the diverse preferences of our global audience.”

As the Warner Bros. bidding war has intensified, event contracts focused on the future owner of the HBO parent company have begun to swing heavily in favor of Netflix. As of market close Tuesday, Netflix’s odds have climbed to 71%, compared to Paramount’s 16%. (Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Still, investors don’t appear obsessed with the idea of Netflix leading entertainment consolidation. Since the streamer’s deal for WBD was announced on December 5, its shares have dropped 13% as of Tuesday’s close.

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GE Vernova, top AI energy play, rises after Q1 report

GE Vernova, a maker of power plant equipment that’s seen orders tied to data centers surge, rose early Wednesday after posting strong Q1 results and lifting full-year sales guidance. The GE spinoff reported:

  • Adjusted EBITDA of $896 million vs. the $772 million estimate from analysts polled by FactSet.

  • Total revenue of $9.34 billion vs. the $9.25 billion consensus expectation from analysts polled by FactSet.

  • Full-year 2026 sales guidance that was lifted to between $44.5 billion and $45.5 billion vs. prior guidance of between $44 billion and $45 billion, and consensus of $44.64 billion.

“In the quarter, our electrification segment booked $2.4 billion in equipment orders to support data centers, more than all of last year” said CEO Scott Strazik.

GE Vernova is up some 600% over the last two years through Tuesday’s close, but the majority of those gains were booked by August 2025. After being largely range-bound for months, the stock busted out following the company’s last earnings report, lifting the shares up nearly 50% in 2026.

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Vertiv drops after offering uninspiring Q2 guidance, overshadowing solid Q1 beat

Shares of Vertiv Holdings dropped as much as ~6% in early trading on Wednesday after the data center equipment’s better-than-expected Q1 numbers were overshadowed by uninspiring guidance.

For the quarter ended, March 31, 2026, Vertiv reported:  

  • Q1 adjusted earnings per share of $1.17 vs. the $1.00 consensus expectation from analysts surveyed by FactSet.

  • Sales of $2.65 billion vs. the $2.64 billion expectation (compiled by FactSet).

  • For Q2, Vertiv expects adjusted earnings of between $1.37 and $1.43, coming in below the $1.43 consensus estimate at its midpoint.

  • Q2 guidance for Vertiv net sales of $3.25 billion to $3.45 billion also vs. Wall Street’s call for $3.40 billion.

Vertiv, which listed in February 2020 as a result of GS Acquisition Holdings Corp., a so-called blank-check company, merging with private equity-owned Vertiv Holdings, has soared over 300% over the last year through Tuesday’s close, as investors have rushed to snap up shares of companies poised to collect some of the hundreds of billions of dollars in spending that the hyperscalers are pouring into the data center build-out. 

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Adobe rises on $25 billion stock buyback

Adobe was up as much as 3.5% in early trading on Wednesday after the company announced a share repurchase plan worth up to $25 billion, signaling to investors that company management sees retiring shares as a prudent use of capital at these levels. The stock has been down more than 60% since Feb 2024, largely on concerns that AI tools will disrupt the company’s business.

The new authorization, which Adobe detailed will extend through April 30, 2030, “is a direct expression of confidence in our robust cash flow and the long-term value we are delivering to investors,” said CFO Dan Durn in a press release.

Indeed, fears that new agentic models could affect demand compounded when Anthropic unveiled Claude Design last week, sending the company’s shares down on the announcement. Adobe released a series of AI-enabled customer service functions shortly after. Rival Figma, which Adobe was set to acquire before the deal was blocked by regulators, has also been under pressure.

Adobe is also not the only spooked software company proposing new buyback plans to bring investors back, joining Salesforce, which actually issued debt to buy back shares in a programme of the same size ($25 billion).

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United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after-hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion consensus estimate.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

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