Markets
markets
Matt Phillips

New high for Palantir shares

Palantir Technologies, the data mining, defense, and intelligence software firm cofounded by politically connected right-wing billionaire Peter Thiel — is on track for a new record high on Friday, suggesting either increased optimism around its earnings results due after the close of trading on Monday, or growing confidence that financial fundamentals are passé when it comes to companies close to the Trump administration. Perhaps both.

Palantir was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 last year, rising 340.5%, a gain that’s put a valuation on the shares — price-to-sales multiple of more than 50x and a price-to-forward earnings ratio of 180x — that makes no sense according to any traditional valuation model.

In this sense, the company is a bit like Tesla, a stock that is, according to traditional metrics, so insanely overvalued as to provoke a sort of crisis in confidence among Wall Street analysts who are increasingly willing to publicly confess that they can’t understand why the shares of this faltering car company continue to rise.

For what it’s worth, the good folks over at the Financial Times seem able to see and state clearly what’s going on, at least when it comes to Tesla. It’s the politics, stupid.

The election of Donald Trump — which Elon Musk spent the relative pittance of $250 million to make a reality — coincided with an explosive move higher for Tesla shares, which can reasonably be interpreted as the market pricing in a business windfall resulting from Elon Musk is a de facto member of the administration.

Thiel — the cofounder and largest individual shareholder in Palantir — also has unusually close links to Trumpworld, having once employed the Vice President JD Vance and helped bankroll his run for the US Senate. The trajectory of Palantir likewise angled sharply higher after the election. In fact, the stock has literally doubled since November 4, the day before the vote.

From an investment perspective, this could be pretty rational, especially since the US government is Palantir’s single largest customer. From an optics perspective, though, the specter of the stock market pricing in Trump-premium for politically connected companies feels a bit grimy.

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markets
Max Knoblauch

Carvana craters after Q4 earnings miss estimates

Used car retailer Carvana plummeted after fourth-quarter profits came in shy of estimates.

Adjusted EBITDA of $511 million came in below the consensus call for $535.7 million, more than offsetting better-than-expected sales of $5.6 billion (estimate: $5.27 billion).

Carvana sold 163,522 used vehicles to retail customers in the quarter, up 43% from last year and ahead of expectations. With that result, Carvana further closes its retail sales gap with rival CarMax, which sold 169,557 vehicles in its most recent quarter.

Carvana posted a retail gross profit per vehicle of $3,076, down 7.7% from the same period last year. In a letter to shareholders, Carvana said its reconditioning costs came in higher than expected in Q4, which led to an additional impact on retail gross profit per unit. Lower shipping fee revenue, higher non-vehicle costs, and higher industrywide retail depreciation rates also drove the decline, the company said.

Carvana said it expects to see elevated reconditioning costs again in the first quarter, but expects a sequential increase in retail GPU. Carvana said it expects “significant growth in both retail units sold and Adjusted EBITDA” in the first quarter and full year ahead.

As of Wednesday’s close, Carvana shares were down about 24% since an all-time closing high in January, after a report from short seller Gotham City questioning its accounting practices sent the stock reeling. A Carvana spokesperson told Sherwood News that the report was “inaccurate and intentionally misleading.”

markets
J. Edward Moreno

DoorDash reports earnings miss, underwhelming earnings guidance

DoorDash reported earnings results that missed Wall Street expectations and provided underwhelming earnings guidance Wednesday after the bell, which it attributed to harsh weather and increased spending.

For the final three months of 2025, DoorDash reported:

  • Earnings per share of $0.48, compared to the $0.59 analysts polled by FactSet were expecting.

  • Revenue of $3.9 billion, in line with the $3.9 billion analysts were penciling in.

  • Gross order value (the total amount spent on the platform) of $29.7 billion, compared to the $29.2 billion analysts were expecting.

For the current quarter, the company expects:

  • GOV between $31.0 billion and $31.8 billion, versus the $30.7 billion analysts are expecting.

  • Adjusted EBITDA between $675 million and $775 million, far below the $801.9 million analysts are expecting. The company said spending on Deliveroo, its recent UK acquisition, as well as extreme winter weather in the US are weighing on its profit guidance.

Shares fell as much as 11% in after-hours trading. The stock is down more than 20% so far this year.

DoorDash’s costs have gone up as it ramps up investment in autonomous delivery and international expansion, among other things. “This is a massive and expensive undertaking and honestly one you shouldn’t do if you thought your best days were behind you,” CEO Tony Xu said in a letter to shareholders.

Ethan Feller, a strategist at Zacks Investment Research, said the underlying business remains strong even if the stock faces pressure in the near term.

“None of these are structural issues, but soft guidance is soft guidance — and the market rarely gives credit for context when a stock is already under pressure,” he said.

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markets
J. Edward Moreno & Luke Kawa

Figma spikes after reporting better-than-expected Q4 results, blowout Q1 and full-year sales guidance

Figma reported Q4 results that exceeded Wall Street’s expectations and robust sales guidance for the current quarter and full year.

Shares are spiking in after-hours trading.

For the final three months of 2025, the digital design and development platform company reported:

  • Revenue of $303.8 million, compared to the $293.1 million analysts were penciling in.

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.08, compared to the $0.07 analysts polled by Bloomberg expected.

For sales, management expects:

  • Q1 revenue between $315 million and $317 million (estimate: $293.6 million).

  • Full-year revenue between $1.366 billion and $1.374 billion (estimate: $1.29 billion).

The lower ends of these ranges are above the highest analyst sales estimates for both Q1 and 2026 as a whole.

This marks the company’s second earnings report since going public over the summer. Its share price has taken a hit this year alongside many of its software peers, and management will be looking to show that AI can be an accelerant, rather than a threat, to its business. On Tuesday, Figma announced a partnership with Anthropic to integrate AI coding tools.

“Our healthy balance sheet and positive free cash flow gives us the flexibility to continue investing in AI and the platform while maintaining financial discipline for sustainable, long-term growth,” CFO Praveer Melwani said in the press release.

As of the close on Wednesday, the stock was down 35% for the year and roughly 80% below its closing level at the time of its July IPO.

Tasha Matsumoto
11h
Stocks rise as AI anxiety abates and investors shake off Fed minutes

Despite minutes from last month’s Fed meeting dimming hopes for rate cuts, stocks posted solid gains.

Nick Richards #13 and Isaac Okoro #35 of the Chicago Bulls celebrate after play against the Denver Nuggets during the third quarter at the United Center on February 07, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.
markets
Max Knoblauch

Record labels dip as Google adds AI music generation to its Gemini app

Google on Wednesday said it’s rolling out the ability for Gemini app users aged 18 and up to generate 30-second AI music tracks.

The tool is available globally, as Google launches beta access to its Lyria 3 generative-AI music model.

Addressing the potential for skirting the lines of copyright law (as seen in other recent DeepMind AI tools), Google said:

“If your prompt names a specific artist, Gemini will take this as broad creative inspiration and create a track that shares a similar style or mood. We also have filters in place to check outputs against existing content. We recognize that our approach might not be foolproof, so you can report content that may violate your rights or the rights of others.”

Shares of record labels including Universal Music Group and Warner Music dropped 2% on the news. Spotify briefly dipped before rebounding, and Sony shares also saw a slight decline.

Last month, Morgan Stanley published a survey that found up to 60% of Gen Z respondents listen to AI music, for an average of three hours per week. Earlier this year, Bandcamp banned all music wholly or substantially generated using AI.

Google’s AI music maker is coming to the Gemini app

Google’s AI music maker is coming to the Gemini app

Addressing the potential for skirting the lines of copyright law (as seen in other recent DeepMind AI tools), Google said:

“If your prompt names a specific artist, Gemini will take this as broad creative inspiration and create a track that shares a similar style or mood. We also have filters in place to check outputs against existing content. We recognize that our approach might not be foolproof, so you can report content that may violate your rights or the rights of others.”

Shares of record labels including Universal Music Group and Warner Music dropped 2% on the news. Spotify briefly dipped before rebounding, and Sony shares also saw a slight decline.

Last month, Morgan Stanley published a survey that found up to 60% of Gen Z respondents listen to AI music, for an average of three hours per week. Earlier this year, Bandcamp banned all music wholly or substantially generated using AI.

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