Some of the craziest charts in market history all have one thing in common: Nvidia

Ahead of Nvidia’s GTC keynote address this afternoon, I’ll make a confession: I find often find myself a bit entranced when CEO Jensen Huang speaks. It’s something about his oration and imagination — and the ability to back that up with the products that enable ever-increasing sales and profits.

However, lately, the market has been anything but impressed. Through 2025 and 2026, most of Nvidia’s major events (earning reports, CES, or GTC) were met with selling pressure.

That’s a track record the CEO will be looking to improve upon during today’s keynote address, slated to begin at 2 p.m. ET. And he’s being spotted to an early lead, with shares up a little less than 2% as of 10:42 a.m. ET.

The GTC, or GPU Technology Conference, is Nvidia’s twice-a-year event to discuss its outlook and product roadmap.

Note: On all of Nvidia’s down days in the above chart, shares also underperformed the S&P 500 on the session.

High-profile events have not, by and large, been positive catalysts for the stock. This probably doesn’t have much to do with anything the leader of the world’s most valuable publicly traded company actually says, and is more a function of how high expectations get any time you can circle an Nvidia date on the calendar.

The two recent exceptions were:

• His address in DC in late October; the stock hit a fresh peak when Huang talked up more than $500 billion in orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips through 2026. The stock went on to set its all-time intraday and closing highs the following session.

• Q1 2026 earnings, where the stock booked a solid gain after better-than-expected results.

Update: A previous version of this post/chart misstated the reaction associated with Nvidia’s Q1 2026 earnings.

Nebius is skyrocketing in early trading on Monday, up nearly 14% as of 8 a.m. ET, after the Amsterdam-based company announced a new five-year deal with Meta worth as much as $27 billion.

The social media giant will initially buy dedicated AI computing capacity across multiple locations for $12 billion, which will be “one of the first large-scale deployments of the NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform,” according to the company’s press release, with delivery beginning in early 2027.

Meta will also buy an additional $15 billion worth of Nebius’ planned capacity if it’s not sold to other customers over the same five-year period.

Nebius added in the press release that its guidance for 2026, in which the company is forecasting an annualized revenue run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion, per its Q4 earnings results, remains unchanged, signaling that the gains from the new deal will likely start rolling in after this fiscal year. This latest deal with Meta, which adds to their previous $3 billion deal announced in November, also notably relies on its partnership with another Big Tech company, Nvidia, which recently invested another $2 billion in Nebius.

This news of another major hyperscaler deal is sparking a bid for many of the other so-called neocloud companies, like CoreWeave, IREN, Applied Digital, Cipher Mining, and Riot Platforms, which also sell hardware and cloud capacity to AI infrastructure-obsessed tech giants.

For Meta, the deal underscores the company’s current financial focus: capital is to be used to expand in AI as quickly as possible, but spending in other areas is to be more cautious. Over the weekend, Reuters reported that the company was looking at layoffs that could affect more than 20% of its staff.

So far, dropping tens of billions of dollars on talent and compute capacity hasn’t catapulted Meta to the top of the AI leaderboards — just last week, The New York Times reported that the company was delaying the release of its Avocado model because it simply wasn’t good enough.

Major Nvidia and Apple supplier Hon Hai (better known as Foxconn) reported a set of mixed Q4 results.

The electronic components manufacturer posted revenues of NT$2.61 trillion, ahead of estimates for NT$2.45 trillion, but net income of NT$45.21 billion came in below the anticipated NT$59.86 billion.

While this is one way to interpret those results...

...the other would be to note that revenues beat expectations, that its AI-linked business’s sales beat those of its smartphone division in Q4 (the peak season for the latter), and that the company said “the AI server sector is expected to see strong growth in 2026.”

And then there’s this headline from Dow Jones, to underline the point:

Foxconn Expects 2026 AI Server Rack Shipments to Grow Exponentially

There’s... no bad news about AI demand here, and the market seems to agree, with Nvidia up 1.1% in premarket trading as of 7:17 a.m. ET on Monday.

Most likely, we’ll get some more reassuring commentary on the state of the ongoing spending tech campaign when Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivers the keynote address at the chip designer’s GTC in San Jose.