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Some of the craziest charts in market history all have one thing in common: Nvidia

In just two years, Nvidia shares have created more than $2.5 trillion in market value.

Some market phenomena are hard to put into words. This is especially true in Nvidia’s case, where it’s worth letting the charts do the talking.

Both Wall Street traders and retail investors who have ridden this stock to remarkable heights will be tuning in after the close of trading on Wednesday, when the chipmaker at the heart of the generative AI boom is set to release its latest report on sales and profits.

Expectations are big, with analysts expecting the angle of incline on Nvidia’s sales to get even steeper, with fiscal second quarter sales to more than double last year’s level for the second straight year, climbing to nearly $29 billion.

Profits, are likewise expected to double, with analysts expecting a 143% jump to more than $15 billion. Some bullish observers think they could rise as high as $16.2 billion in the fiscal second quarter.

The market has taken those numbers and projected them ad infinitum, which is why Nvidia’s stock price has become, over the last couple years, one of the truly remarkable stories in stock market history.

In just two years, Nvidia shares have created more than $2.5 trillion in market value, transforming itself into one of the largest companies in the world. Microsoft and Apple, its two rivals in terms of market heft, spent decades bulking up to that level.

In fact, Nvidia’s stock market capitalization alone is worth more than the entirety of the German stock market, and roughly rivals the value of the Paris Bourse.

Academics who study the history of the stock market say such periods of remarkable outperformance simply cannot last. On the other hand, it’s tough to say when Nvidia’s run will end. So we, like everyone else, will be tuning in for the numbers on Wednesday.

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US stocks end volatile week on a positive note

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both ended well in the green, while the Russell 2000 suffered a loss.

markets

Margins, and selling the news: analysts look to explain Oracle’s tumble

The somewhat counterintuitive tumble in Oracle shares continued into afternoon trading Friday, despite Wall Street analysts’ more or less favorable reaction to Oracle’s investor day presentation Thursday, where executives said the company’s AI cloud business would eventually sport margins of between 30% and 40%, far better than the figures reported by The Information back on September 7.

And yet, the stock is on its way to its worst day in the last six months. What gives?

Gil Lauria, who covers Oracle for D.A. Davidson & Co. — who has it at “hold” with a $300 price target — has a theory, telling Sherwood News:

“Investors are disappointed that the entire growth acceleration in Oracle is from the Oracle Cloud Infrastructure business, and that Oracle expects the rest of the business to grow low single digits.

The other disappointment came from Oracle acknowledging that the GPU rental business only had 30-40% gross margins, far lower than the 80% gross margins for the rest of the business.”

Other analysts we’ve chatted with on background say they’re not convinced the margin story is the source of today’s slump, suggesting the also plausible explanation that the drop might just be a sign traders bought the stock ahead of the presentation to analysts on Thursday anticipating positive announcements, and now they’re selling simply selling the news.

Gil Lauria, who covers Oracle for D.A. Davidson & Co. — who has it at “hold” with a $300 price target — has a theory, telling Sherwood News:

“Investors are disappointed that the entire growth acceleration in Oracle is from the Oracle Cloud Infrastructure business, and that Oracle expects the rest of the business to grow low single digits.

The other disappointment came from Oracle acknowledging that the GPU rental business only had 30-40% gross margins, far lower than the 80% gross margins for the rest of the business.”

Other analysts we’ve chatted with on background say they’re not convinced the margin story is the source of today’s slump, suggesting the also plausible explanation that the drop might just be a sign traders bought the stock ahead of the presentation to analysts on Thursday anticipating positive announcements, and now they’re selling simply selling the news.

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Analysts generally like what they heard from Oracle, but shares are down

The big news out from the Oracle AI World conference was broadly positive: that margins on cloud infrastructure can be as high as 35%, and that the company predicts $166 billion in infrastructure revenue by 2030.

And in the wake of that news, today UBS raised its price target for Oracle shares to $380 from $360, saying they are undervalued.

But investors appear to have some concerns about Oracle’s huge capex plans, which are fueled by huge AI infrastructure deals with OpenAI and Meta, as shares dropped over 7% in Friday trading.

Analysts have pointed to Oracle’s high cash burn as it pursues its AI build-out and potential financing needs as flies in the ointment that could blunt the impact of the companys strong longer-term growth forecasts.

On Friday, Jeffries analysts wrote:

Questions remain about ORCLs capex requirements to meet growing demand, as there was no forward-looking commentary on capex at the Analyst Day. Capex will need to ramp in line with [Oracle cloud infrastructure] revenue growth, raising concerns about ORCLs financing options to support this expansion.

However, if thats the reason why the stock is getting hit today, it would mark a distinct change in how investors are evaluating the AI trade. Companies have tended to be increasingly rewarded for their aggressive capex commitments to enhance the boom, based on optimism that investments in this would-be revolutionary technology will bear fruit.

Fridays dip comes on the back of a strong run leading up to the yesterdays investor conference, fueled by a flurry of AI headlines. Oracle shares have gained over 18% in the past three months and more than 70% so far this year, well outpacing the Nasdaqs approximately 7% and 16% rise over the same time periods.

markets

AST SpaceMobile drops after Barclays cuts rating to “underweight”

AST SpaceMobile, which provides cellular services from space, dove in early trading after Barclays analysts cut their rating on the shares to “underweight” (essentially a sell) from “overweight” (or a buy), citing “excessive” valuation on the still money-burning company. The fact that analysts went from “buy” to “sell” — with no momentary stop at a “hold” or “neutral” rating — makes it a fairly rare “double downgrade.”

They wrote:

“Valuation has run ahead of fundamentals... In our last update, we increased our price target from $38 to $60 as we took a more constructive view on pricing; we found it supportive that TMUS/Starlink launched a text only service for $10 per month and believe that AST products which will be richer (text, call, broadband) could see higher prices points. Since then the stock price has doubled from $48 to $95.7.”

With the shares up almost 120% over the last month through Thursday, and a price-to-forward-sales ratio of 140x — the Nasdaq Composite is around 5x — the stock might be due for a cooling-off period.

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