Nebius Group’s $3 billion deal with Meta takes some of the sting out of soft Q3 results
The knee-jerk move lower in Nebius after the company reported underwhelming Q3 results is not being fully offset by its concurrent announcement of a fresh $3 billion deal with Meta to deliver AI infrastructure over the next five years.
The numbers:
In its earnings presentation, the neocloud highlighted that it sold out of all available capacity in Q3.
Management also significantly boosted guidance related to capacity, seeing contracted power at more than 2.5 gigawatts at the end of calendar year 2026, up from 1 gigawatt previously. Next year is poised to be huge for Nebius in terms of putting that power to good use, as management sees connected power (that is, energy that can be immediately activated upon GPU installation) rising from 220 megawatts at year-end 2025 to a range of 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt by the end of 2026, or roughly quadrupling its active operations.
In a letter to shareholders, founder and CEO Arkady Volozh said that the firm is “currently in the process of securing additional sites” that would allow this contracted power guidance to be realized.
“The only real limitation on our revenue growth in 2025 has been the amount of capacity that we have been able to bring online,” Volozh wrote.
As the company works to resolve these constraints, “we believe that we can achieve annualized run-rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026,” he added. There’s only one ARR estimate for Q4 2026 among analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, and that’s for $4 billion.
Management also announced an at-the-market equity program that will allow them to opportunistically raise capital by issuing up to 25 million shares.
Peer CoreWeave is slumping after posting its Q3 results after the close on Monday, in which management highlighted that supply constraints in the “powered shell” — that is, the supporting electrical infrastructure for the data center — are delaying its ramp, prompting a cut to full-year revenue guidance.