Nia Warfield, Luke Kawa6/25/25

S&P 500 gives up early gains to finish flat

The S&P 500 opened higher but couldn’t maintain its gains through the trading day, finishing flat. The Nasdaq 100 eked out another record close with a 0.2% gain and set a fresh all-time high early in the session. The Russell 2000 slid 1.2%.

Under the hood, the benchmark US stock index was soft, with decliners outnumbering stocks that gained by 229 on the day.

Only two S&P 500 sector ETFs finished in the green, tech and healthcare, with the former a large standout. Real estate, consumer staples, utilities, and consumer discretionary were all down more than 1%.

AI server company Super Micro Computer led gains among S&P 500 companies, up nearly 9%. Meanwhile, Nvidia jumped 4%, hitting a fresh all-time high after Loop Capital hiked its price target on the stock to $250 from $175. Elsewhere…

Paychex led declines, sinking 9% after the HR software provider missed Q2 sales forecasts and gave a lukewarm full-year outlook.

Top NYC office landlords SL Green and Vornado fell 5.7% and 6.7%, respectively, as investors reacted negatively to the recent surprise win of Zohran Mamdani in New York City’s mayoral primary.

BP shares shot up briefly after a Wall Street Journal report said the oil giant was in talks to be bought by rival Shell. Shell later denied the report, and BP finished roughly 1% down.

Bumble soared 25% after the women-focused dating app said it would lay off nearly a third of its staff, a cost-cutting measure that sparked some investor confidence.

BlackBerry shares jumped over 12% a day after the now software and security company topped Q2 estimates and surprised investors by swinging to a profit.

General Mills shares slipped 5% after the Cheerios and Pillsbury parent posted mixed Q4 earnings and slashed its full-year forecast as consumers pull back on name-brand groceries.

FedEx shares were down over 3% after the legacy courier company topped Q4 earnings estimates but gave less-than-optimistic guidance for the current quarter.

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Tasha Matsumoto

Stocks swing positive as Trump says that the Iran war could be over soon

Stocks made a huge tech-led comeback while the price of crude oil slid.

Aberdeen Angus Bull

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What to look for in Oracle’s Q3 earnings

On Tuesday, Oracle will announce its third-quarter earnings, and all eyes are on the company’s massive AI data center buildout. Last month, the company told investors that it plans to raise $45 billion to $50 billion to fund its ambitious capex plans.

With so much new spending, the company is reportedly looking to make steep job cuts — thousands of positions across the company — and may be freezing hiring in its cloud division.

Shares of Oracle are down by more than 20% since the start of the year. The stock is down about 56% from its 52-week high of $345.72.

The company’s big bet on AI is causing some concerns among investors, and the company has recently seen a wave of lowered price targets by analysts:

Jeffries: to $320 from $400
Scotiabank: to $215 from $220
Deutsche Bank: to $300 from $375
Baird: to $200 from $300

On Friday, shares dropped sharply on reports that OpenAI had pulled out of a planned expansion of the Stargate data center, in Abilene, Texas. But OpenAI has since clarified that the decision back out of plans for the expansion was just the result shifting capacity to other data center sites under construction.

The company will announce its earnings after market close on Tuesday.

FactSet’s survey of analysts shows they expect an EPS of $1.70 and revenue of $16.9 billion for Oracle’s third quarter. Cloud revenue is expected to be $8.76 billion, and all eyes will be on Oracle’s capex, which is expected to be $14 billion.

Max Knoblauch29m

Joby, Archer, and Beta climb following their inclusion in the Trump administration’s air taxi pilot program

Shares of air-taxi makers Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, and Beta Technologies are climbing in Monday afternoon trading following the Department of Transportation’s announcement of their inclusion in the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP).

Archer and Joby, which announced their plans to participate in the program back in September, each climbed more than 4% on Monday, while Beta surged more than 12%. Boeing’s air taxi subsidiary Wisk was also named in the DOT’s announcement.

The DOT and FAA selected eight projects spanning 26 states to speed up the development of “advanced air mobility.” Operations will begin this summer. According to an Archer press release, the program could mark “a major step toward bringing electric air taxis to market in the United States.”

“These partnerships will help us better understand how to safely and efficiently integrate these aircraft into the National Airspace System,” said FAA Deputy Administrator Chris Rocheleau. “The program will provide valuable operational experience that will inform the standards needed to enable safe Advanced Air Mobility operations.”

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Matt Phillips55m

As the S&P 500 announces new members, index investors could get exposure to SpaceX

Here’s something kind of strange.

If all goes as planned, investors in the most basic kind of investment available — your plain vanilla, low-cost, S&P 500 index fund such as SPDR S&P 500 ETF — will soon get a form of pre-IPO exposure to Elon Musk’s SpaceX, one of most sought after stakes in the private markets.

That’s because one of the new companies that will be added to the S&P 500 — via additions announced on Friday — is EchoStar , the indebted satellite services company that owns Dish Network.

EchoStar — which along with Vertiv Holdings, Lumentum, and Coherent will go into the index on March 23 — is also set to become a not-insignificant owner of class A common stock in SpaceX.

SpaceX is said to be targeting an over $1 trillion valuation for an IPO this June. EchoStar has struck deals for shares that would give it a roughly 2.8% stake in SpaceX, analysts say.

SpaceX sold that stake to pay EchoStar for part of the roughly $20 billion cost of prized spectrum assets. The company first struck a spectrum deal with SpaceX in September, which it expanded in November. Investors have since seemed to be view to the company as a way to gain backdoor exposure to Musk’s hot privately held space company.

That excitement continues, but it should be noted, that even though EchoStar struck a deal for SpaceX shares, company officials say that stock is not yet in its coffers and it won’t be until its SpaceX deals close.

Speaking to analysts after the company’s earnings call on March 2, EchoStar CEO Hamid Akhavan said:

“Until the closing, we don't have actually the – that SpaceX's equity. So that is not something that we can make any plans on till we actually get the equity. We have a right to it, but we don't have the – we actually don't have that equity yet. So we'll see how that plays out.”

No closing date was offered when the initial deal with SpaceX was announced in September, with EchoStar releases saying only the “closing of the proposed transaction will occur after all required regulatory approvals are received and other closing conditions are satisfied.”

Why extreme oil price volatility sets off alarm bells for markets and the economy

Nearly every time front-month Brent futures have risen or fallen 30% or more in a month, that’s been accompanied by above-average stock market volatility. In most cases, it’s either coincided with or been soon followed by a recession.

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