Markets

S&P 500 shakes off down day for tech heavyweights to finish higher

In a case of opposite day, the lesser-runs of the S&P 500 powered the market higher while the heavyweights broadly retreated on Thursday. The benchmark US stock index closed up 0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 eked out a 0.1% gain, and the Russell 2000 led the way with a 0.5% advance.

Contrary to Wednesday, the S&P 500’s advance-decline line was tilted decidedly to the upside, with gainers outnumbering fallers by 247. Every S&P 500 sector ETF traded higher save for consumer discretionary, with defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples topping the leaderboard.

Cisco helped lead the day’s gains, jumping nearly 5% after the networking products company posted a Q3 solid earnings report, exceeding analysts’ expectations on the top and bottom lines. Meanwhile, UnitedHealth shares tumbled 11% after The Wall Street Journal reported that the US Department of Justice is investigating the healthcare giant for possible Medicare fraud, the latest in a series of stumbles for the company.

Walmart shares slipped as much as 3%, but ended the day flat as investors balanced the company’s solid Q1 earnings beat with the warning that price hikes are on the way.

Meta slumped to session lows late in the trading day after The Wall Street Journal reported that it’s delaying the release of its Llama 4 AI model.

Birkenstock shares climbed nearly 6% after the popular German footwear company beat earnings estimates for the second quarter and raised its full-year outlook.

Alibaba shares fell 7.5% after the Chinese e-commerce giant missed revenue and profit expectations for the fourth quarter amid ongoing consumer weakness in the country.

NetEase, one of China’s largest video game companies, rallied 14% after the company topped earnings estimates thanks to strong game sales and a 35% boost in net profit.

Meanwhile...

Foot Locker shares sprinted over 85% after Dick’s Sporting Goods announced a massive $2.4 billion takeover offer for the struggling sneaker retailer. Dick’s shares, however, fell nearly 15%.

Coinbase’s stock fell 7% after the crypto exchange said it would pay between $180 million and $400 million to customers following a data breach from an “unknown threat actor.”

Shares of CoreWeave surged as much as 11% before closing down 2%, despite posting better-than-expected sales during its inaugural quarterly earnings report.

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Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month

Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.

The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

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Why software shares are withstanding the war jitters

The outbreak of the war in Iran has clearly rattled investors and created a few clear winners — mostly energy stocks — and losers — consumer staples, airlines, and, well, more or else everything else.

But there is one interesting outlier to that Manichaean market dynamic.

Software shares — often the same companies that the market was giving up for dead just a few weeks ago due to overexpectations of an AI-driven disruption — have been holding up remarkably well.

These companies, including Intuit, ServiceNow, Datadog, Snowflake, IBM, Workday, and Oracle, have actually had a pretty decent run since the war started with a combined US-Israeli attack on Iran last weekend.

A new note from RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria suggests this isn’t just a fluke. Looking at the performance of software stocks during periods of geopolitical stress and market volatility over the last 10 and 25 years, his team found that software shares appear fairly well insulated when these broader shocks hit. RBC wrote:

“The defensive nature of SaaS models and the mission-critical nature of many core software systems at the enterprise level (e.g., in the absence of mass layoffs that may create seat-based headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and/or market volatility typically will not cause an enterprise CIO to consider ripping out their ERP, CRM, Cyber systems, etc.”

I briefly got Jaluria on the phone yesterday, and he explained a bit more about why he thinks investors might see software as a decent place to hide out from the current chaos.

“With everything in the Middle East, you have to think about not just oil and gas input prices but also supply chains,” he said. “With software, you’re not really thinking about that.”

In other words, there is no equivalent of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that software investors have to worry about.

Others suggested that the near-term profitability of these giant software companies — aside from concerns about potential long-term disruption from AI — may look different in the face of the economic uncertainty that seems to be growing with the war, especially after a sell-off that has left them relatively attractively valued.

Mark Moerdler, who covers software stocks for Bernstein Research, says that while the AI worries are clearly real, software companies continue to be highly productive cash cows.

“Everyone is afraid that AI is a massive disruptor, and all these articles you read talk about AI as massive disruptor or the world is ending or whatever,” he said. “You don’t see it in the fundamental numbers of the companies I cover. They are delivering GAAP profits, free cash flow, and they’re good investment ideas.”

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