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Biden and Xi in November. (Leah Millis/Getty Images)
Not seeing eye to AI

Semiconductor stocks get slammed as Biden restricts sales to “countries of concern” like China

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF has swung from the top of a three-month range to the bottom in one week.

Luke Kawa

Chip stocks are getting pummeled as the Biden administration unveiled a new framework for semiconductor exports — its AI Diffusion rule — that restricts the ability of China and other “countries of concern” to access the powerful, sought-after devices.

The White House said the measures are “continuing to ensure that advanced semiconductors sold abroad are not used by countries of concern to train advanced AI systems.”

Nvidia and AMD each took a leg lower after hours on January 8 after reports of these export curbs surfaced, and ended down 3% and 4.8% on Friday when markets reopened after a national day of mourning for former President Jimmy Carter.

The sell-off continues: these companies, along with Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom, Intel, Qualcomm, and Micron, are all off at least 1% on Monday morning in response to the confirmation of these reports.

Ned Finkle, vice president of government affairs at Nvidia, blasted the Biden admin’s decision, drawing an unfavorable comparison with its predecessor’s approach.

“The first Trump Administration laid the foundation for America’s current strength and success in AI, fostering an environment where U.S. industry could compete and win on merit without compromising national security,” he said.

“In its last days in office, the Biden Administration seeks to undermine America’s leadership with a 200+ page regulatory morass, drafted in secret and without proper legislative review.”

The continued pain in the premarket chipmakers has dragged the VanEck Semiconductor ETF as much as 2.5% lower. The ETF is now trading near its 200-day moving average, a level it has closed below just twice over the past year, and near the bottom of the $240 to $260 range that’s persisted for months.

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Credo soars after preliminary Q3 revenues beat estimates and management projects annual sales growth of 200%

Credo Technology Group is earning itself some new believers.

The seller of active electrical cables (AECs) and other electrical connectivity solutions for data centers announced stellar Q3 preliminary sales results after the close on Monday, with guidance that calls for rapid growth to continue.

Shares are up about 15% as of 8 a.m. ET.

Management said that Q3 revenues would range between $404 million and $408 million, above the upper end of its guidance and the $341 million forecast from Wall Street. Going forward, the company projects that revenues will grow in the mid-single digits quarter on quarter, propelling revenue growth up more than 200% year-on-year through its current fiscal year.

“We reaffirm CRDO as our Top Pick for 2026 and view this announcement positively given management's continued execution with its AEC product offering and our underlying belief in the longevity of AECs,” writes Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who has a $220 price target on the shares. “At the Needham Growth Conference, management stated that they believe the industry is still in the early innings of the AEC adoption curve, pointing to only one customer that has fully deployed AECs across potential use cases (front-end networks, scale-out networks and switch racks) and stated that visibility continues to be strong over the next twelve months and beyond.”

Bolton boosted his sales outlook for Credo’s next fiscal year and the one after that following this news.

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Spotify soars as Q4 monthly average user growth and gross margins set records

Music streamer — and soon to be physical booksellerSpotify reported impressive Q4 results on Tuesday that are sending shares up 15% in premarket trading.

Spotify said it added more than 38 million monthly active users, a quarterly record which brought its total to 751 million. Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet expected 744.7 million. The number of premium, paying subscribers grew 10% to 290 million, slightly bettering estimates of 289.4 million. Revenue for the quarter rose 7% to €4.53 billion (~$5.4 billion), which fell broadly in line with estimates, while its 33.1% gross margin figure was also a new company record.

Looking ahead to the current quarter, Spotify forecast an addition of 8 million net monthly active users to 759 million total (vs. the 752.7 million expected). The streamer guided for 293 million premium subscribers in Q1, compared to the 293.5 million consensus.

The company, which raised its US subscription prices this month, expects to book €4.5 billion, or $5.36 billion, in Q1 revenues. Wall Street expected €4.58 billion, or $5.41 billion.

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Oscar rises after upbeat guidance offsets underwhelming Q4 results

Oscar Health rose in premarket trading after reporting impressive full-year guidance which more than offset Q4 results that failed to live up to analysts’ expectations.

For the last three months of 2025, Oscar reported:

  • A loss per share of $1.24, compared to the $0.89 loss per share analysts polled by FactSet were expecting.

  • Revenue of $2.8 billion, lower than the $3.1 billion the Street was penciling in.

  • A medical cost ratio of 95.4%, higher than the 91.1% analysts expected.

For the full year in 2026, Oscar expects:

  • Revenues between $18.7 billion and $19 billion, compared to the $12.4 billion analysts had penciled in.

  • Its medical cost ratio to sit between 82.4% and 83.4%, while analysts had expected 85.5%.

Health insurers have been under pressure for the past year amid rising health costs. Oscar, a provider of ACA Marketplace plans, has taken a hit as tax credits for the program lapsed in January.

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TSMC jumps as revenues soared 37% in January

TSMC is up 2.6% in premarket trading, as of 6:15 a.m. ET Tuesday, after the Taiwanese chipmaker reported that January revenues jumped 37% to NT$401.3 billion ($12.7 billion).

That leap is a fair way above the company’s full-year growth outlook of 30%.

Much of the rise was fueled by booming demand for advanced AI chips made for customers including Nvidia and Apple. In January, TSMC revealed plans to spend $52 billion - $56 billion in capital expenditures across 2026, up sharply from $40.9 billion in 2025.

The January figure builds on the world’s biggest chip manufacturer’s rip-roaring Q4, where revenue, earnings, and sales and margins guidance all beat estimates.

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