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Service dogs flying on Southwest.
These good bois (or girls) should still get to sit wherever they want (Getty Images)
HEDGE NO BETS

Southwest’s cost-cutting spree now includes a big gamble on oil prices

Fuel hedges are going off the menu at the airline.

Luke Kawa

As part of its cost-cutting spree, Southwest is ending a practice that has saved the company billions. 

Further plans to reduce expenses include “the discontinuation of our fuel hedging program, which eliminates additional fuel hedge premiums in the future,” CEO Bob Jordan said at JPMorgan’s Industrials Conference. “We’ll be opportunistic in unwinding our existing positions based on market conditions.”

The airline is pulling out all the stops to cut costs lately: unveiling a freeze on hiring and promotions in January, announcing the elimination of nearly 1,800 employees in February, and now this revelation in March.

Putting on and maintaining hedges costs money, and fuel is the second-largest operating expense for the airline after labor costs. But in the past, spending that money to hedge its exposure to fluctuations in fuel prices has been a way that Southwest ultimately kept costs down.

Bloomberg wrote that Southwest Airlines is “one of the few” airlines that maintained oil hedges following the financial crisis, which saved the company $3.5 billion in the 10 years through 2008. Its fuel costs have generally fluctuated much less than competitor American Airlines (which hasn’t hedged its exposure), and Southwest also outperformed its peers in the first half of 2022 when oil prices spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

If fuel costs rise, the unwinding of these hedges could backfire in a big way for Southwest (and likely put upward pressure on ticket prices). And if fuel costs go down, well… I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for Jordan & Co. to pass the savings along to you.

Southwest is certainly in a state of transition, if not upheaval, after a pressure campaign from activist Elliott Investment management led to a mass shakeup of its board last fall. Along with the recent bevy of cost-cutting measures, the company just announced the end of its “bags fly free” policy, which management expects will generate additional revenue going forward. Time flies — just six months ago, it said “bags fly free” would stay because cutting it would “drive down demand and far outweigh any revenue gains created.”

Add this to the list of signs that Southwest is trying to be just like every other airline.

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Oil-sensitive stocks and companies relying on middle-class spending are getting crushed

Sometimes there’s a singular story driving the markets. With US benchmark crude oil prices topping $100 a barrel, Monday is one of those days.

Oil-sensitive stocks are getting clobbered, with airlines foremost among them. JetBlue, United Airlines, and Alaska Air are all tumbling.

But the pain is more widespread than that, with industries where oil prices are a major input, such as chemical manufacturers (Eastman Chemical), industrial machinery makers (Illinois Tool Works), and building products (Owens-Corning), also getting shellacked.

More ominous — economically speaking — is the performance of companies catering to America’s middle class, including Macy’s, Kohl’s, Best Buy, and Texas Roadhouse. The drop suggests that investors and traders expect the rising cost of fuel to eat away at disposable income, potentially setting the stage for an economic slowdown.

Some of the worst off on Monday are companies that are both fuel-sensitive and heavily reliant on middle-class consumers — a double whammy.

Cases in point: Carnival is getting creamed, and Clorox, a company that depends on slightly better-off Americans shelling out for its brand-name products, is also getting pummeled.

But the pain is more widespread than that, with industries where oil prices are a major input, such as chemical manufacturers (Eastman Chemical), industrial machinery makers (Illinois Tool Works), and building products (Owens-Corning), also getting shellacked.

More ominous — economically speaking — is the performance of companies catering to America’s middle class, including Macy’s, Kohl’s, Best Buy, and Texas Roadhouse. The drop suggests that investors and traders expect the rising cost of fuel to eat away at disposable income, potentially setting the stage for an economic slowdown.

Some of the worst off on Monday are companies that are both fuel-sensitive and heavily reliant on middle-class consumers — a double whammy.

Cases in point: Carnival is getting creamed, and Clorox, a company that depends on slightly better-off Americans shelling out for its brand-name products, is also getting pummeled.

Retro outdoor sign to save money on gas, Save $ on fuel

Where in the US have gas prices jumped the most since the US attack on Iran?

Drivers in some states are seeing pump prices rise much faster than others.

markets

Live Nation reportedly reaches settlement with DOJ over Ticketmaster

Live Nation is jumping in premarket trading on Monday after reports that it has reached a settlement with the Department of Justice over an antitrust lawsuit that could have forced the company to sell Ticketmaster.

After Bloomberg reported that the company was close to a settlement, The Wall Street Journal early on Monday reported that a deal had indeed been reached with an agreement that crucially spares the entertainment giant from breaking up with Ticketmaster, in return for making it easier for other promoters to compete in Live Nation venues.

The prompt agreement, with negotiations presumably intensifying since the trial kicked off on March 2, is expected to get relief to consumers faster than Live Nation going through a trial, per a Justice Department official cited by the WSJ.

Separately, Politico reported that the settlement would include $200 million in damages to participating states — a tiny fraction of Live Nation’s more than $36 billion market cap. Politico also expects Live Nation to divest more than 10 amphitheaters and cap Ticketmaster’s service fees at its amphitheaters under the agreement.

The settlement, which still requires approval from a judge, is set to be made public on Monday, and has seen about 10 states agreeing to the new framework, according to people familiar with the matter. Other state attorneys general may continue to separately litigate.

After Bloomberg reported that the company was close to a settlement, The Wall Street Journal early on Monday reported that a deal had indeed been reached with an agreement that crucially spares the entertainment giant from breaking up with Ticketmaster, in return for making it easier for other promoters to compete in Live Nation venues.

The prompt agreement, with negotiations presumably intensifying since the trial kicked off on March 2, is expected to get relief to consumers faster than Live Nation going through a trial, per a Justice Department official cited by the WSJ.

Separately, Politico reported that the settlement would include $200 million in damages to participating states — a tiny fraction of Live Nation’s more than $36 billion market cap. Politico also expects Live Nation to divest more than 10 amphitheaters and cap Ticketmaster’s service fees at its amphitheaters under the agreement.

The settlement, which still requires approval from a judge, is set to be made public on Monday, and has seen about 10 states agreeing to the new framework, according to people familiar with the matter. Other state attorneys general may continue to separately litigate.

markets

Leo KoGuan, billionaire Tesla bull, tweets that he purchased another 1 million shares of Nvidia

Billionaire software entrepreneur, philosopher, and now major Tesla and Nvidia bull Leo KoGuan tweeted that he bought another 1 million shares of the chip designer.

“Hopefully, I can contribute a little to calm the nervous market. Good luck all,” he wrote in his message.

Unless KoGuan can work some magic in global oil markets or conflict resolution in the Middle East, however, “a little” may be all he’s able to contribute in favor of market tranquility.

Stocks, including Nvidia, are modestly positive this morning despite the spike in oil prices weighing on major indexes.

Unless KoGuan can work some magic in global oil markets or conflict resolution in the Middle East, however, “a little” may be all he’s able to contribute in favor of market tranquility.

Stocks, including Nvidia, are modestly positive this morning despite the spike in oil prices weighing on major indexes.

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