Markets
Nia Warfield

Stocks hit record high as July inflation data bolsters rate cut bets

Stocks shot to fresh intraday records Tuesday after in-line July inflation data fortified bets that the Federal Reserve would deliver its first interest rate cut of 2025 next month. The S&P 500 rose 1.1%, the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.3%, and the Russell 2000 soared 2.9%.

That marked the S&P 500’s first record close of August, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 booking a record close as well.

All 11 S&P 500 sector ETFs went positive on the day, with communication services, tech, and materials leading the way.

Gains on the day were led by chip stocks NXP and On Semiconductor, which jumped 7.2% and 6.1%, respectively. Declines were led by law enforcement equipment maker Axon Enterprise, which fell 6.1%. Elsewhere…

Meta jumped 3.1%, ending the day at $790 — its highest closing price in history. The stock has been on a tear following a series of excellent earnings reports.

Shares of On Holding leapt 8.9% after the Swiss sneaker maker reported strong Q2 sales and offered a sunny outlook as the brand gains traction in the “RTO apparel” market.

D-Wave Quantum were up 6.5% to close the day. Sherwood News spoke with its CEO, following the quantum computing company’s Q2 sales beat last week, about its potential to expand into AI model training.

e.l.f. Beauty shares rose another 4.5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of the popular cosmetics brand to “overweight” and hiked its price target to $134 from $114 on Monday.

Five Below shares also bounced 4.5% after Loop Capital hiked its rating on the stock from “hold” to “buy” and lifted its price target to $165.

Tilray shares climbed 3.2%, extending a rally, as investors continue to pile into the cannabis company, fueled by a report that President Trump is considering weed reform.

Circle shares ticked up 1.3%, paring back from a 15% premarket surge after the fintech firm’s first earnings report as a public company topped revenue estimates but missed on earnings per share.

Nvidia closed largely flat despite a new report from The Information saying that China’s internet regulator has ordered local tech companies to suspend their purchases of Nvidia chips.

Spirit Airlines shares plunged 40% after the discount airliner issued a dire warning about its ability to survive as a going concern without more cash. Rival airlines including Delta, American, Southwest, and JetBlue were all up amid this news and inflation data showing a jump in ticket prices for July.

Plug Power dipped 3.4% after the hydrogen fuel cell developer reported mixed second-quarter results after the bell on Monday, but said it plans to achieve gross margin breakeven in Q4.

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markets
Luke Kawa

Health insurers surge after Medicare agrees to pay 2.48% more in 2027, a bigger than expected boost

Health insurance stocks are surging after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said it plans to boost Medicare Advantage and Part D payments by 2.48% in calendar year 2027.

The likes of CVS, Humana,UnitedHealth, Molina Healthcare, Oscar Health, and Elevance Health are gaining in postmarket trading.

Wall Street analysts had anticipated that rates for 2027 would go up between roughly 1% and 1.5%.

These stocks had gotten crushed in late January when the Trump administration proposed relatively flat federal payment rates.

Insurance companies that provide government-sponsored plans, like Medicare Advantage, faced headwinds from higher than expected costs in 2025.

Luke Kawa, Tasha Matsumoto
54m
Stocks maintain gains after whipsawing as traders digest war updates

Stocks rose for the fourth-consecutive session as traders vacillated between hopes for a ceasefire and fears of an escalation.

Bull kicks
markets
Matt Phillips

Iran war winners Dow, LyondellBasell downgraded by Bank of America

Dow, Inc. and LyondellBasell — two petrochemicals stocks that surged as markets priced in shortages due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — should decline as investors focus on the long-term outlook for normalized petrochemical prices once the war resolves, Bank of America analysts wrote in a note downgrading the two stocks Monday.

BofA moved its rating on the shares from “neutral” to “underperform,” writing:

“Over time, as chemical markets normalize, we expect 1) investor focus to shiſt back to ‘normal’ or ‘sustainable’ earnings profiles and 2) the conflict to resolve without material asset rationalization, both of which likely bias shares lower over the next twelve months.”

Analysts also lowered their stance on another petrochemicals and building materials stock, Westlake, to “neutral” from “buy.”

While cutting those ratings, BofA actually raised its more near-term price targets for the shares. It upped LyondellBasell to $68 from $55, and Dow to $35 from $31.

But those price targets still imply declines of more than 10% compared to where both shares were trading late Monday morning. Both stocks are up roughly 30% since the start of the Iran war.

markets
Luke Kawa

BNY and Robinhood to run “Trump accounts”

The Treasury Department named BNY as the financial agent to manage savings accounts for children established by the 2025 tax law, with the bank partnering with Robinhood Markets to serve as the brokerage and initial trustee. A custom “Trump accounts app” will be created as part of this venture.

The news was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

These so-called “Trump accounts” were part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which sees the government contribute $1,000 toward an investment account for each child born in 2025 through 2028.

Exclusive | Treasury Taps BNY, Robinhood to Help Run Trump Accounts for Children

Exclusive | Treasury Taps BNY, Robinhood to Help Run Trump Accounts for Children

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

These so-called “Trump accounts” were part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which sees the government contribute $1,000 toward an investment account for each child born in 2025 through 2028.

markets
Luke Kawa

Memory stocks forget TurboQuant and remember how to rally

US memory stocks are forgetting about a negative catalyst and remembering what it’s like to lead major indexes.

Shares of Micron, Western Digital, Sandisk, and Seagate Technology Holdings are soaring in early trading on Monday.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its confidence in hard drive disk sellers on Monday, saying that recent channel checks “point to strengthening demand, elongating visibility, and most importantly, a much stronger pricing outlook.”

Analyst Erik Woodring boosted his price target on Seagate to $582 from $468 and on Western Digital to $380 from $369.

Aside from that, there’s no real news supporting their advance, so this looks to be a case of, “We now return to our regularly scheduled programming,” a world in which memory stocks benefit from a substantial supply/demand imbalance and enjoy ample pricing power thanks to the AI boom.

The group slumped in early March when the US-Israeli attacks on Iran began, as the war sparked an unwind of popular trades, and then sold off again late in the month after Google published details on its TurboQuant algorithm, which could decrease memory intensity in data center environments.

It’s worth noting that after March 25 was when the US stock market, in general, really hit the skids. So after that negative catalyst, the group was getting caught up in a tide of risk-off activity.

Wall Street analysts at Bernstein and Bank of America, among others, suggested the TurboQuant-inspired sell-off in the group was overdone.

“Despite TurboQuant, GOOGL capex still up +100% YoY,” wrote BofA analyst Vivek Arya, who added that Google “has been publishing similar techs over the last 18 months.”

With Monday’s early gains, these stocks (ex Micron) have now recovered all their post-TurboQuant declines.

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