Markets

Stocks hit record high as July inflation data bolsters rate cut bets

Stocks shot to fresh intraday records Tuesday after in-line July inflation data fortified bets that the Federal Reserve would deliver its first interest rate cut of 2025 next month. The S&P 500 rose 1.1%, the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.3%, and the Russell 2000 soared 2.9%.

That marked the S&P 500’s first record close of August, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 booking a record close as well.

All 11 S&P 500 sector ETFs went positive on the day, with communication services, tech, and materials leading the way.

Gains on the day were led by chip stocks NXP and On Semiconductor, which jumped 7.2% and 6.1%, respectively. Declines were led by law enforcement equipment maker Axon Enterprise, which fell 6.1%. Elsewhere…

Meta jumped 3.1%, ending the day at $790 — its highest closing price in history. The stock has been on a tear following a series of excellent earnings reports.

Shares of On Holding leapt 8.9% after the Swiss sneaker maker reported strong Q2 sales and offered a sunny outlook as the brand gains traction in the “RTO apparel” market.

D-Wave Quantum were up 6.5% to close the day. Sherwood News spoke with its CEO, following the quantum computing company’s Q2 sales beat last week, about its potential to expand into AI model training.

e.l.f. Beauty shares rose another 4.5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of the popular cosmetics brand to “overweight” and hiked its price target to $134 from $114 on Monday.

Five Below shares also bounced 4.5% after Loop Capital hiked its rating on the stock from “hold” to “buy” and lifted its price target to $165.

Tilray shares climbed 3.2%, extending a rally, as investors continue to pile into the cannabis company, fueled by a report that President Trump is considering weed reform.

Circle shares ticked up 1.3%, paring back from a 15% premarket surge after the fintech firm’s first earnings report as a public company topped revenue estimates but missed on earnings per share.

Nvidia closed largely flat despite a new report from The Information saying that China’s internet regulator has ordered local tech companies to suspend their purchases of Nvidia chips.

Spirit Airlines shares plunged 40% after the discount airliner issued a dire warning about its ability to survive as a going concern without more cash. Rival airlines including Delta, American, Southwest, and JetBlue were all up amid this news and inflation data showing a jump in ticket prices for July.

Plug Power dipped 3.4% after the hydrogen fuel cell developer reported mixed second-quarter results after the bell on Monday, but said it plans to achieve gross margin breakeven in Q4.

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Chip stocks post record outperformance of software companies in never-before-seen divergence

One session in 2026 brings one thing we’ve never seen before in markets: a massive divergence between the two big parts of the technology sector.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF absolutely trounced the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF today, with the former gaining 3.7% leaving while the latter dropped 2.9%.

The 6.6-percentage point gap is the biggest outperformance for SMH versus IGV on record, going back to December 2011.

Since these two are both parts of a broader technology whole, it’s rare to have one up a ton while the other gets shellacked. The rolling one-year correlation of daily returns for these two ETFs was about 0.8 heading into today.

There have been only three sessions (including today) where the chip stock ETF was up at least 1.5% while the software ETF was down 1.5% or more. We’ve never seen SMH gain 2% while IGV fell 2% before Friday’s session. And there’s been only one session where the reverse happened (November 11, 2024).

The opening trading day of 2026 was phenomenal for the AI picks and shovels trade, while very poor for their more downstream peers.

How and why did this happen? Who knows really, but this looks like the kind of thing where a couple major funds decide to keep their total AI exposure stable but lean into a hardware-over-software tilt when adjusting their positioning at the start of the year, which kicks off intraday momentum that forces everyone else along for the ride.

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AI downstream stocks tumble even as their picks and shovels peers soar

While the AI picks and shovels stocks are enjoying a strong start to 2026, the same can’t be said for the companies more downstream in this theme — even most of the hyperscalers.

The S&P 500’s biggest losers today include:

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Why the 1929 stock market crash still matters, almost a century later

Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book, “1929,” follows the foremost financiers of the era through the market’s darkest days and the aftermath that created Wall Street as we know it.

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