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BanningTikTok

What it means for the rest of the market

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A TikTok ban could affect a wide variety of companies

The likelihood of a US TikTok ban is higher than ever. 

Last Thursday, the House of Representatives fast-tracked a bipartisan effort that could lead to Gen Z’s favorite app being banned in the US, and over the weekend, the House approved the bill.

The revised legislation ties TikTok’s fate to a foreign-aid package for Ukraine and Israel. The Senate passed its biggest procedural hurdle Tuesday afternoon in an 80-19 vote. The bill will get a final vote shortly, likely sending it to President Biden’s desk, where Biden said he’d sign it.

If it goes through, it would force TikTok’s Chinese parent, ByteDance, to separate from the app within a year or be banned in the States. This doesn’t necessarily mean a ban is imminent, but it means that the president will have a great deal of leverage to make the sale happen in the foreseeable future.

Supporters say the bill’s necessary to protect American data from the Chinese government. TikTok and other critics argue it would curb free-expression rights for 170M American TikTok users.

The Tik-ban saga’s long: US leaders have been trying to ban the addictive app since 2020. But now things are moving fast. Here are some companies that could be affected by a TikTok ban, based on how they mention the app in earnings transcripts and filings as either friend or foe. 

Social media: Meta, Snap, and others 

If the TikTok economy collapses, it’ll be a major win for rivals Meta, Google, and Snap, who each have TikTok copycats ready to step in (Reels, YouTube Shorts, and Spotlight). TikTok’s popularity among Americans has grown faster than any other social platform, and if it vanishes, its 170M US users would likely move to its rivals. TikTok’s often cited as a risk factor in social giants’ earnings:

  • Meta: “User growth and engagement are also impacted by a number of other factors, including competitive products and services, such as TikTok, that have reduced some users' engagement with our products and services.”

  • Snap: “We compete with other companies in every aspect of our business, particularly with companies that focus on mobile engagement and advertising. Many of these companies, such as Alphabet (including Google and YouTube), Apple, ByteDance (including TikTok), Meta (including Facebook, Instagram, Threads, and WhatsApp), Pinterest, and X (formerly Twitter), may have greater financial and human resources and, in some cases, larger user bases.”

Beauty: Elf, L’Oréal, Coty, Ulta, Clinique, and others 

These days, beauty companies are heavily reliant on social media (especially TikTok) to gain viral traction for their products — from Clinique’s Black Honey Lipstick and Elf’s liquid filter foundation to Coty’s Kylie Cosmetics. If a ban happens, it could dent beauty marketing: 

  • Elf: “We're one of the first beauty brands on TikTok, where we — our first hashtag challenge, I think had something like 3 billion views well before most people knew what TikTok was… So, our ability to go deep in a particular platform, be native in terms of how people are using it, is one of our key strengths.”

  • L’Oréal’s March report: “L’Oréal is no. 1 in influencer market share (+5.5 points compared to 2022 to the end of November 2023), boosted by strong leadership and increased TikTok.”

  • L’Oréal’s February earnings call: “There's like an appetite for beauty. And on TikTok is by far the number one category. And I think the number of video views have doubled in 2023. So, there is this appetite.”

  • Ulta: “In December, we surpassed 1 million followers on TikTok reinforcing our position as a social brand leader in beauty.”

…retail in general

Just like with beauty marketing, TikTok has played an important role in growth for Gen Z popular apparel brands like Revolve and Crocs, as well as old-school retailers like Target and Walgreens. It plays a key part in customer-acquisition strategies and is often cited as a growth driver on corporate earnings calls:

  • Revolve: “We had a really phenomenal quarter, in part driven by a TikTok Shop, that was really successful for us in the quarter.”

  • Crocs: “In August, we dropped our fourth Lightning McQueen Adult Clog with strong — with a very strong unveil on TikTok, garnering approximately 38 million views, our best-performing TikTok ever.”

  • Walgreens: “We had a TikTok influencer put something up about peeled mango gummies, and we can't keep them in stock now.”

Music: UMG, Sony, and Warner

Vertical dances and lip-sync vids are big business. Record labels have grown increasingly reliant on TikTok for the success of their songs, and are even tailoring tunes to what they think will go viral. Without that exposure, they could lose $$. But one record label said it could live without it: after TikTok and Universal Music Group failed to agree on royalty payments, TikTok removed all music from UMG artists like T. Swift and Drake. UMG’s focusing on other platforms:

  • UMG: “With regard to TikTok, we've disclosed that our former deal generated about 1% of total UMG annual revenue. Because other platforms in the social video category achieved much greater monetization, we're focused on accelerating our partnerships with YouTube, Meta, Snap and others and we look forward to updating you in the coming weeks ahead about exciting competitive developments and incremental opportunities emerging within the category.”

  • Warner Music: “We hope that UMG and TikTok come to a resolution and a good collaboration that's healthy for the ecosystem. To the extent that there's greater prominence on TikTok like greater prominence is a good thing. TikTok is a great marketing and promotion platform and tool.”

With the biggest hurdles cleared, we’re a vote away from it being basically just up to Biden as to whether these companies will have a whole lot more to talk about soon.

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GameStop rises after announcing package for CEO Ryan Cohen that completely ties his pay to the company’s value and profits

GameStop is rising in premarket trading after the company announced a long-term performance package for Chairman and CEO Ryan Cohen that completely tethers his financial interests with those of shareholders as well as the company’s operational performance.

Under this plan, Cohen would receive options that enable him to purchase 171.5 million shares of GameStop at $20.66 apiece — but only if the market valuation of the company exceeds certain thresholds and GameStop generates enough cumulative earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).

So Cohen can’t benefit personally from another meme stock surge in the stock unless that’s combined with a continued increase in profitability.

“Under the award, Mr. Cohen receives no guaranteed pay — no salary, no cash bonuses, and no stock that vests simply over time,” per the press release. “Instead, his compensation is entirely ‘at-risk,’ meaning he will only be paid if the Company achieves significant market and operational goals.”

The package is divided into nine tranches, each with a different market cap and cumulative EBITDA hurdle. The first tranche vests if GameStop clears a $20 billion market cap while the company generates $2 billion in EBITDA under his leadership. Per GameStop, Q1 2026 will be the starting point from which this EBITDA performance hurdle will be tracked.

On a closing basis, GameStop has exceeded this $20 billion threshold only during its 2021 meme stock mania. The milestones for different tranches to vest run in increments of $10 billion (up to $100 billion) for market cap, and $1 billion (up to $10 billion) for EBITDA.

Cohen’s key moves as leader of the retailer have been to lean into collectibles, which have seen massive growth, while pursuing an aggressive cost-cutting campaign to improve its financial position. And, I suppose, doing the bitcoin treasury thing.

This new package is subject to approval by shareholders, a vote that Cohen will recuse himself from.

Mr. Blue Sky

So, just how much could this be worth to Cohen, if he somehow turns the ailing retailer into a profitable machine worth more than Nike? Well, let’s just say he won’t be missing his salary.

At a $100 billion market cap with the current share count, GME’s stock would trade at about $223. That would imply Cohen’s stock options to purchase 171.5 million shares at $20.66 would be worth an eye-watering $34.7 billion.

But that, unfortunately, is too simple. Because each tranche vests in turn, and because GameStop is offering over a third of its current shares outstanding, we have to take the dilution into account, which would impact all shareholders, Cohen included.

Assuming all of the awards were exercised upon being hit — e.g. the first 10% coming after the first tranche, the next 20% after the second, etc. — GameStop’s shares outstanding will soar once again.*

The whole GME pizza will be worth the same, but there’ll be a lot more slices with each tranche — about 17 million more... and they’ll all be owned by Cohen. Here’s a table showing the mechanical impact of each threshold being hit, on a very theoretical (and aspirational) GME share price.

Taking the napkin math above, this would mean Cohen’s 171.5 million stock options would be worth closer to $24 billion.

Of course, what will really break your brain is the fact that markets are forward-looking and traders would be adjusting in real time as each dilutive milestone approached.

*The company made the most of its elevated stock price during its meme stock fame, turning its balance sheet into a fortress.

markets

D-Wave Quantum agrees to acquire Quantum Circuits for $550 million to boost gate-model development

D-Wave Quantum announced Wednesday that it has struck a deal to purchase Quantum Circuits for $550 million, as the annealing-centric quantum computing company continues its push to bolster its gate-model capabilities.

The company said that $300 million will be paid in D-Wave stock, with the remainder in cash.

D-Wave is the major player in annealing quantum computing, an approach that solves more specialized optimization problems. Gate-based quantum computers, which aim to address even more complex and broad queries, are the dominant approach being pursued by publicly traded quantum computing firms. Gate model developers have also tended to get more interest from government agencies, as their technology is seen as the ultimate end point for quantum computing and therefore more worthy of support.

“By combining the world’s leading annealing quantum computing company with the world’s leading developer of error-corrected gate-model technology, D-Wave will dramatically accelerate the projected time to a scaled, error-corrected gate-model quantum computer alongside and complementary to its commercial annealing quantum systems,” per the press release. “Combining these technologies is expected to facilitate an accelerated commercial gate-model product roadmap that D-Wave believes will enable it to be the first to deliver fully error-corrected, scaled gate-model quantum computing”

Thanks to this acquisition, D-Wave plans to deliver an initial dual-rail gate-model system in 2026.

During the conference call that followed the release of Q3 earnings in November, CEO Dr. Alan Baratz highlighted gate-model development as a priority for D-Wave.

“Up until now, our investment in gate has been light, mostly because we haven’t had the funds to be able to grow that investment all that much. Now with the roughly $830 million in the bank, we have the resources to be able to invest more in that program, both internal investment and through acquisition to accelerate the program,” he told Sherwood News.

“We have one customer who has said, ‘When you have a gate-model system, I want it.’”

This news comes on the heels of the firm’s announcement on Tuesday that it’s solved a key problem when it comes to scaling superconducting gate-model quantum computers: how to keep qubits in the same place without producing too much heat.

markets

Rare earth stocks rise as White House statement confirms the US is looking at options for acquiring Greenland, including using the military

Companies like MP Materials, Critical Metals, USA Rare Earth, and United States Antimony Corp. have caught a bid in early trading on Wednesday, after a White House statement yesterday confirmed that the president and his team are discussing “a range of options” in their controversial goal to acquire Greenland.

President Trump has touted the idea of acquiring the rare earth-rich, semiautonomous Danish region since his first term, with the White House telling the BBC on Tuesday that the acquisition was a “national security priority.” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt added:

The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the Commander-in-Chiefs disposal.

Earlier on Tuesday, a group of European leaders and NATO members, including the heads of Germany, France, and the UK, issued a joint statement saying that security in the Arctic must be achieved “collectively,” and that “it is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.” The latest US announcement also came after Secretary of State Marco Rubio had downplayed potential military action on Monday.

Critical Metals is leading the price action, up more than 10% on Tuesday’s close as of 6 a.m. ET, building on a sharp ~26% gain yesterday as perhaps the most directly exposed stock, with its Tanbreez project located in southern Greenland. The company, which the Trump administration has reportedly expressed interest in building a stake in, states that the Tanbreez assets include a “diverse portfolio of high-demand rare earth elements.”

President Trump has touted the idea of acquiring the rare earth-rich, semiautonomous Danish region since his first term, with the White House telling the BBC on Tuesday that the acquisition was a “national security priority.” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt added:

The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the Commander-in-Chiefs disposal.

Earlier on Tuesday, a group of European leaders and NATO members, including the heads of Germany, France, and the UK, issued a joint statement saying that security in the Arctic must be achieved “collectively,” and that “it is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.” The latest US announcement also came after Secretary of State Marco Rubio had downplayed potential military action on Monday.

Critical Metals is leading the price action, up more than 10% on Tuesday’s close as of 6 a.m. ET, building on a sharp ~26% gain yesterday as perhaps the most directly exposed stock, with its Tanbreez project located in southern Greenland. The company, which the Trump administration has reportedly expressed interest in building a stake in, states that the Tanbreez assets include a “diverse portfolio of high-demand rare earth elements.”

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