The TSMC factory in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China (CFOTO/Getty Images)

Chipping in

TSMC climbs on blowout sales, sees AI revenues doubling this year

AI-centric sales poised to keep booming and supply remains more of a constraint than demand.

1/16/25 8:44AM

TSMC, the world’s largest semiconductor producer, is jumping 5% in the premarket after posting stronger fourth-quarter results and a better outlook than analysts anticipated, saying that AI-centric revenues are poised to double this year after tripling in 2024.

Some highlights from the quarterly report and earnings call:

Adjusted earnings per share of $0.45 beat expectations.
Revenues of $26.8 billion were above all projections.
Even the low end of its guided ranges for revenues ($25 billion to $25.8 billion) and operating margins for Q1 (between 46.5% to 48.5%) exceeded the consensus estimate for these metrics.
TSMC plans to aggressively expand to accommodate the AI boom: full-year planned capex ranges from $38 billion to $42 billion, compared to an estimate of $35.2 billion.
- HPC (high-performance computing) sales, some of which are tied to the AI build-out, accounted for more than half of TSMC’s fourth-quarter revenues and posted the fastest sequential growth of any segment.
- So-called AI accelerators “accounted for close to mid-teens percent of our total revenue in 2024,” according to Chairman and CEO CC Wei, who expects these sales to double this year after tripling in 2024.
- Demand still exceeds supply: “We have very tight capacity and cannot even meet customers’ need,” Wei said. Later, on a question on whether there was more upside/downside to the expectation that AI-centric revenues would double in 2025, he suggested it was more a matter of supply than demand.
There’s still a big divide between AI and ex-AI demand. Per Wei: “2024 was a mixed year of recovery for the global semiconductor industry. AI-related demand was strong while our other applications saw only a very mild recovery, as macroeconomic conditions weigh on consumer sentiment and end-market demand.”
On trade and tariffs, particularly relevant to TSMC given it makes geopolitically sensitive materials and produces its most advanced products in a geopolitically fraught location:
- “Let me assure you that we have a very frank and open communication with the current government and with the future one also,” Wei said. “I cannot say anything more than that.”
- Export restrictions recently announced by the Biden administration are “not significant” and “manageable” for TSMC, the CEO added.
American customers matter most: North America accounted 75% of sales compared to just 9% for China (a share that slipped versus Q3).

Tasha Matsumoto

11h

Stocks rise for the third-consecutive session, erasing December losses

Santa baby, just slip a rally under the tree...

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - DECEMBER 23: Benny the Bull, the Chicago Bulls mascot, dresses as Santa Claus in the game against the Milwaukee Bucks during the second half at the United Center on December 23, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois.

Matt Phillips15h

‘Golden age of profit margins’ seen in 2026

Wall Street tends to be a pretty optimistic place. But on one measure, market watchers are the most optimistic on record.

FactSet data shows the consensus estimate for S&P 500 net profit margins in calendar year 2026 calls for the gauge to climb to 13.9% in 2026.

But if borne out by events next year “it will mark the highest (annual) net profit margin reported by the index since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008,” wrote John Butters, senior earnings analyst at the financial data company.

A recent story from Barron’s also commented on the expectations for especially fat profit margins embedded into forecasts for next year.

“We are in the golden age of margins,” RBC’s Capital Markets’ head of US equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, told the magazine.

That’s good news for investors looking forward to next year. But the follow up question, of course, is where the growth in profitability is expected to come from. The answer, as you might have guessed, is tech. Though the precise mechanisms by which those profits land in the coffers of the giant tech firms remains something of a mystery. Barron’s doesn’t get into the details, saying “call it benefits from AI, pricing power, or whatever.”

That doesn’t exactly sound like money in the bank. But even die-hard haters of AI have to acknowledge that betting against the ability of giant tech companies to generate massive profit growth has been a bad trade for the last couple decades.

The Stock Market Needs to Focus on Lucky 13

A recent story from Barron’s also commented on the expectations for especially fat profit margins embedded into forecasts for next year.

“We are in the golden age of margins,” RBC’s Capital Markets’ head of US equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, told the magazine.

Luke Kawa16h

Opendoor rises after CEO Kaz Nejatian touts an explosion in its home-buying footprint

Opendoor Technologies gained in early trading after CEO Kaz Nejatian touted an explosion in the company’s home-buying footprint.

In a message on X, the former Shopify COO posted two maps: one of which depicts a fairly limited area in which the online real estate company would buy or sell homes, and the second of which suggests that has now expanded to include the entire lower 48:

Big launch week at @Opendoor.

ZIP codes where @Opendoor buys homes. pic.twitter.com/UplMd4sXJE
— Kaz Nejatian (@CanadaKaz) December 22, 2025

In a follow-up tweet, Nejatian attributed the gains to AI, writing, “First pic took 10 *years* of work without AI. Second pic took 10 *weeks* of work with AI.”

On his first earnings call as CEO, Nejatian said the company had adopted a “default to AI approach.”

One of his first pledges was to launch Opendoor everywhere in the lower 48.

Max Knoblauch16h

Hertz surges on bullish options activity

As millions begrudgingly make their way to the rental car counter amid the winter holidays, investors are pouring into calls and sending Hertz stock soaring.

As of 10:51 a.m. eastern, Hertz had seen 17,861 calls traded. That’s already significantly ahead of the 20-day average volume of 12,956. Hertz shares are up more than 12%.

Seemingly juicing the rally was a post on X that read “car rental companies could end up being the picks and shovels of autonomy” that was reposted by billionaire Bill Ackman, whose hedge fund is one of Hertz’s largest shareholders.

If Hertz’s price action holds, the move will mark its ninth-best trading day of 2025.

Luke Kawa16h

POET Technologies jumps on elevated call activity

Optical communications company POET Technologies is up double digits in early trading on Monday as this potential supporting player in the AI boom gets a bid from the options market.

Just an hour after the opening bell sounded, call volumes are already running well above their five-session average for a full day.

The stock became a retail favorite in early Q4 right before many speculative trades began to retreat, with record call volumes of nearly 600,000 on October 7. The last big bump in options activity came on December 3, the session after Marvell’s acquisition of Celestial AI, a customer of POET, offered some validation for its technology as a data center solution.