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UnitedHealth down after whistleblower report, downgrade

UnitedHealth is down more than 5% in early trading after a downgrade from HSBC and a report that alleged it coordinated with nursing homes to reduce hospitalizations.

On Wednesday, The Guardian reported that UnitedHealth, the nation’s largest health insurer, offered financial incentives to nursing homes for avoiding transferring patients to the hospital.

Reducing such visits lowers costs for UnitedHealth, potentially boosting its profits, but reportedly led to worse outcomes for patients.

On the same day, HSBC reduced its rating on newfound retail favorite UnitedHealth from “hold” to “reduce.” This comes after the company’s CEO stepped down, as well as reports that the Department of Justice is investigating potential Medicare fraud at the company.

Reducing such visits lowers costs for UnitedHealth, potentially boosting its profits, but reportedly led to worse outcomes for patients.

On the same day, HSBC reduced its rating on newfound retail favorite UnitedHealth from “hold” to “reduce.” This comes after the company’s CEO stepped down, as well as reports that the Department of Justice is investigating potential Medicare fraud at the company.

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US crude oil hits highest price since 2024 as Iran war roils markets

US crude oil climbed by more than 8.5% in afternoon trading, pushing the price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude above $81 at points, a level it hasn’t seen since the summer of 2024.

The price spike is hammering energy sensitive shares like airlines and consumer staples, and driving outperformance among oil and gas companies. Energy is already the S&P 500's top performing sector by far in 2026.

In a March 5 note, analysts from S&P Global Energy CERA wrote:

"The scale and duration of a price spike will depend on how much oil is kept off the market -- and for how long -- due to danger in the strait, higher shipping insurance rates or damaged Gulf infrastructure.”

US prices at the pump are already surging, rising an average of 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon, a 9% rise in just a single week, according to new data collected by AAA.

In a March 5 note, analysts from S&P Global Energy CERA wrote:

"The scale and duration of a price spike will depend on how much oil is kept off the market -- and for how long -- due to danger in the strait, higher shipping insurance rates or damaged Gulf infrastructure.”

US prices at the pump are already surging, rising an average of 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon, a 9% rise in just a single week, according to new data collected by AAA.

+27¢ ⛽

What a difference a week and a war makes.

The average price per gallon for gasoline in the US shot up 27 cents from last week to $3.25, a 9% increase, according to new data from AAA, as escalating tensions in the Middle East push oil prices higher.

Higher fuel costs are rippling through markets: the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund is down 2%, and bargain retailers like Dollar General and Walmart are also trading lower.

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Nvidia falls on report of US government drafting regulations restricting AI chip exports

According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration will propose regulations that would require American approval for AI chip shipments worldwide, expanding existing export controls that currently apply to roughly 40 countries.

Nvidia and AMD both dropped on the news that the government would essentially act as a “gatekeeper for the AI industry,” though approval processes will vary and ramp up in complexity with the size of the order, and would only require the involvement of the host country’s government “for truly massive deployments,” according to Bloomberg’s sources. Bloomberg added that exports for the largest projects would only be approved for US allies that make stringent security commitments and “matching” investments in American AI, though the draft rule does not specify what that investment ratio would be.

Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported the US is also considering putting a cap on the number of AI chips that Chinese firms can purchase, though Nvidia CFO Colette Kress mentioned on the company’s Q4 earnings call it does not yet know whether it will be able to ship any AI chips to China regardless of US regulations.

Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported the US is also considering putting a cap on the number of AI chips that Chinese firms can purchase, though Nvidia CFO Colette Kress mentioned on the company’s Q4 earnings call it does not yet know whether it will be able to ship any AI chips to China regardless of US regulations.

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The war is a mega rotation trade

Coming into this week, there had been some very well-defined and well-subscribed trades:

  • Memory stocks > everything, especially software.

  • Rest of the world’s stocks > US stocks.

  • Within the US market, the many > the few (as in, S&P 500 equal weight over S&P 500).

War is far from kind. In fact, for markets, it is seemingly a catalyst for mean reversion: all of these aforementioned trades are reversing this week.

There’s some fundamental backing, or at least an excuse, behind all of these unwinding:

  • Europe, for instance, is much more adversely impacted by oil price shocks than the US;

  • That’s also true for South Korea (whose market is dominated by a pair of memory chip stocks);

  • Oil price spikes are generally negative for economic activity; tech companies (particularly the heavyweights) have tended to enjoy acyclical growth.

“Who knew that a war against Iran would cause a mean reversion trade here in the US?” wrote analysts at Bespoke Investment Group on Wednesday. “So far this week, the best-performing stocks have been ones hit hardest this year through February, and vice versa.”

War as mean reversion
Source: Bespoke Investment Group

For markets, the risk was that war would drive a pickup in correlations within US stocks and between different asset classes. On Tuesday, the price action was validating and accentuating these concerns. Since then, broadly speaking, it hasn’t.

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