markets

Matt Phillips3h

Why the war in Iran put these four chemical stocks on top of the S&P today

They’re not the most glamorous stocks in the market, but chemical-slash-fertilizer companies CF Industries, Mosaic Co. , Dow, Inc., and LyondellBasell are the belles of the ball in Thursday trading, topping the list of S&P 500 performers shortly before 12 p.m. ET.

Natural gas is a crucial input for the chemical and fertilizer industries, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is basically cutting off supply from the region, which European and Asian chemical companies depend on.

That leaves these US giants — with access to abundant stateside gas supplies — able to produce and take advantage of pricing power in the absence of robust global competition.

Here’s how Citi analysts put it today in a note upgrading LyondellBasell and Dow to “buy” from “neutral”:

“While the duration of the conflict remains uncertain, we believe the disruptions and shutdowns across the upstream LNG plants to downstream crackers in Asia and Europe could provide months of supply-driven pricing uplift.”

Good times for them. (And their shareholders.)

Some of these companies like Dow, Mosaic, and CF Industries are also major suppliers of fertilizers, which influence food prices. And that suggests the world economy is experiencing growing inflationary pressures stemming from the less than 2-week-old war, which could eventually become a problem for the market.

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Matt Phillips4m

Firefly Aerospace rockets higher, as traders snap up calls

Firefly Aerospace shares soared after Wednesday’s successful liftoff of its Alpha rocket for the first time in almost a year was followed by a flurry of call buying in the options market.

Shortly before 3 p.m. ET Thursday, roughly 36,000 call options on Firefly had changed hands, more than twice the average over the previous 20 days.

The Cedar Park, Texas designer and manufacturer of space launch vehicles has lost some serious altitude since its August 2025 IPO. It’s down about 60% since then, even after Thursday’s surge.

Vandenberg rocket launch visible across West Coast. Here's a recap

Vandenberg rocket launch visible across West Coast. Here's a recap

The Cedar Park, Texas designer and manufacturer of space launch vehicles has lost some serious altitude since its August 2025 IPO. It’s down about 60% since then, even after Thursday’s surge.

Woe de toilette

Spiking oil prices have investors turning up their noses at fragrance stocks

Estée Lauder and International Flavors & Fragrances are among the worst-performing stocks since the kinetic conflict in the Middle East started.

Aramis Special Blend Event

markets

Saleah Blancaflor48m

Gas jumps 60 cents in under two weeks, hitting $3.60 as the market braces for possible $4 a gallon

Spring is just around the corner and gas prices just keep getting higher.

The national average for a gallon of regular gas is currently at $3.598, according to the American Automobile Association, jumping nearly 35 cents since last week.

The most recent prices are similar to spring of 2024, while this is the first time it has gone above the $3.50 threshold since July 29, 2024.

While gas tends to increase during the warmer months, crude oil prices have played a major part in what consumers have been paying, at times exceeding $100 per barrel in the past few days.

To offset the rising energy costs due to the conflict in the Middle East, the US Department of Energy announced it would release 172 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves over the next four months as part of the larger effort to release 400 million oil barrels.

Prediction markets are pricing in an implied 62% chance that the price of gas exceeds $4.00 at the end of the month. Things may get even more expensive though; markets are pricing in roughly even chances that gas finishes above $4.10, and even a 22% chance gasoline is averaging $4.50 per gallon on March 31.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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US gas prices jump to nearly $3.60 per gallon

AAA Fuel Prices

While gas tends to increase during the warmer months, crude oil prices have played a major part in what consumers have been paying, at times exceeding $100 per barrel in the past few days.

To offset the rising energy costs due to the conflict in the Middle East, the US Department of Energy announced it would release 172 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves over the next four months as part of the larger effort to release 400 million oil barrels.

Prediction markets are pricing in an implied 62% chance that the price of gas exceeds $4.00 at the end of the month. Things may get even more expensive though; markets are pricing in roughly even chances that gas finishes above $4.10, and even a 22% chance gasoline is averaging $4.50 per gallon on March 31.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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markets

Max Knoblauch3h

Rivian announces R2 will start at $59,485 at launch, with lower cost trims set to arrive in 2027

EV maker Rivian on Thursday announced that its highly anticipated R2, which CEO RJ Scaringe has called “maybe the most important thing we’ve launched to date,” will start at $59,485 at launch.

The company is prioritizing pricier trims at first, with a lower-range $46,495 base model set to arrive in late 2027.

The nearly $60,000 launch price, and the timeline for the base model’s arrival, seem to be slightly different than what investors were hoping for, and Rivian shares are down 4% intraday on Thursday.

Rivian’s R2 is a midsize SUV, smaller than its R1S predecessor. The launch model will have an estimated range of 330 miles.

Rivian has said it expects R2 deliveries to begin in the second quarter of this year. The company has implied that it expects to make between 20,000 and 25,000 R2 deliveries in 2026.

Rivian Announces R2 Trims, Pricing - Kelley Blue Book

Rivian Announces R2 Trims, Pricing - Kelley Blue Book

The nearly $60,000 launch price, and the timeline for the base model’s arrival, seem to be slightly different than what investors were hoping for, and Rivian shares are down 4% intraday on Thursday.

Rivian’s R2 is a midsize SUV, smaller than its R1S predecessor. The launch model will have an estimated range of 330 miles.

Rivian has said it expects R2 deliveries to begin in the second quarter of this year. The company has implied that it expects to make between 20,000 and 25,000 R2 deliveries in 2026.

markets

Never-ending stream of private credit conniptions weighs on financials

The steady drip of negative news on private credit is exacerbating the sell-off in stocks tied to the asset class and the broader financial sector.

Asset manager Blue Owl Capital is trading at its lowest level since October 2022, the month the S&P 500 bottomed. Its business development company, Blue Owl Capital Corp. — effectively its private credit arm — is likewise sinking, with a price-to-book ratio below 0.8. That suggests investors don’t think its loans are worth what the company has reported they’re worth (or are worried that they’ll be marked down in the future).

Glendon Capital Management is leveling that direct charge against the firm and others in the industry. In a presentation seen by the Financial Times, Glendon alleged that “private credit funds managed by Blue Owl and many of its rivals had ‘misrepresented’ loss rates in their portfolios and were sitting on ‘larger losses than reported.’"

This news comes after JPMorgan reportedly curbed some of its lending to private credit funds and reduced the estimated value of software loans in those portfolios, according to Bloomberg.

Other lowlights in financials:

Deutsche Bank, which revealed a $30 billion exposure to private credit in its annual report, is down nearly 8% as of 11:10 a.m. ET, on track for its biggest one-day loss since April 2025.
With this week’s losses, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF has erased its year-to-date gains, which were in excess of 13% as of early February.
Jon Turek, founder of JST Advisors, flagged that the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund is poised to deliver a Q1 drop in excess of 10%. Other years in which that fund tumbled by 10% or more in the first three months include 2001, 2008, 2009, and 2020 — a nearly comprehensive list of the most tumultuous periods for global markets in the 21st century.

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