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Extreme Closeup of a Needle In A Haystack
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JUST BUY THE HAYSTACK

VOO has dethroned SPY as the world’s largest ETF

SPY got a 17-year head start, but Vanguard’s low-cost S&P 500 tracker now tops the ETF charts, thanks to a legion of loyal Bogle-heads... and their $632 billion.

John Bogle, legendary American investor and entrepreneur, famed for popularizing the bedrock of modern-day equity investing — index funds — once said: “Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!”

As millions of people took his advice, eschewing their egos and the idea of trying to pick individual winners in the stock market, trillions of dollars have flowed into low-cost index funds and ETFs. And as of this week, the biggest of those is now VOO, the S&P 500 ETF provided by Vanguard — the firm founded by Bogle himself in 1975. VOO now counts some $632 billion in total assets, per data from Bloomberg, finally overtaking its longtime rival, SPDR S&P 500 Trust, the S&P 500 tracker run by State Street.

VOO vs. SPY
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VOO-doo economics

ETFs have become wildly popular, offering retail and institutional investors the ability to invest in hundreds of America’s largest and most innovative companies through one clean, tradeable security. But VOO was hardly first to the scene, starting only in 2010 — so how did it soar to the top of the rankings? After all, both SPY and VOO aim to do the same thing: track the performance of the S&P 500 Index.

Various arguments could be made, but there’s really only one reason: VOO is cheaper, charging a miniscule 0.03% per year for the privilege of investing in it, considerably less than the 0.09% expense ratio of SPY. No one loves a bargain more than returns-obsessed investors.

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Microsoft is in talks to shift its custom chip business to Broadcom from Marvell, The Information reports

The Information’s profile of custom chip specialist Broadcom includes this tidbit:

“And now Microsoft is also in talks to design future chips with Broadcom, which would involve Microsoft switching its business from Marvell, another maker of custom chips, according to one person involved in the discussions.”

Shares of Marvell Technology briefly dipped into the red after this report hit the wires, but then pared that drop to trade modestly higher. The company codesigns the Maia line of ASICs for Microsoft that are custom-built for Azure. Microsoft is its second-biggest hyperscaler client, behind Amazon.

Marvell tumbled on a ho-hum earnings report earlier this week before going on to surge after CEO Matt Murphy offered a $10 billion revenue target for its upcoming fiscal year, which was above analysts’ expectations.

Perhaps this is a bit of Information fatigue, given how Microsoft was quick to deny a report from the outlet earlier this week about how the tech giant lowered its sales targets for AI products.

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Memory stocks soar as AI supporting cast repairs damage from steep November declines

There’s not much rhyme or reason to it, but memory stocks are ending the week with a stellar showing.

Shares of high-bandwidth memory specialist Micron, hard disk drive sellers Seagate Technology Holdings and Western Digital, and flash memory company Sandisk are all rising today.

Three of these stocks dropped about 20% in November as credit risk seeping into AI and a downturn in speculative momentum stocks weighed on the theme, with Sandisk faring the worst.

Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate have all since rebounded strongly and are about 5% or less from reclaiming all-time highs, while Sandisk has made up the least ground.

While GPUs (and, more recently, TPUs) get most of the headlines, data centers also need a boatload of memory chips that store information and feed it to those processors.

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Ulta soars as Q3 beat sparks flood of price target hikes

Ulta’s latest makeover is happening on Wall Street. Shares leapt Friday morning as analysts hiked their price targets after the beauty retailer topped Q3 estimates and raised its full-year outlook after the bell Thursday.

Earnings came in at $5.14 per share, handily beating analyst expectations of $4.64. Revenue also topped estimates at $2.86 billion, compared with the $2.72 billion expected. Ulta has benefited from resilient beauty spending, even as consumers pull back elsewhere and hunt more aggressively for discounts.

Ulta now expects full-year net sales of about $12.3 billion, up from a prior forecast of $12.0 billion to $12.1 billion. The retailer also lifted its earnings outlook to $25.20 to $25.50 per share, up from $23.85 to $24.30 previously. This marks Ulta’s second straight quarter of hiking its sales and profit forecast. Analysts are taking note:

  • Goldman Sachs maintained its “buy” rating and raised its price target to $642 from $584.

  • DA Davidson maintained its “buy” rating and raised its price target to $650 from $625.

  • JPMorgan maintained its “outperform” rating and raised its price target to $647 from $606.

  • Baird maintained its “outperform” rating and hiked its price target to $670 from $600.

  • Telsey Advisory maintained its “outperform” rating and raised its price target to $640 from $610.

  • Piper Sandler maintained its “outperform” rating and raised its price target to $615 from $590.

  • Canaccord Genuity maintained its “neutral” rating and raised its price target to $674 from $654.

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Southwest cuts its earnings outlook on lost revenue due to government shutdown

Another big four airline has put a price tag on the 43-day government shutdown.

Southwest Airlines on Friday said lower revenue due to a temporary decline in demand during the shutdown, together with higher fuel costs, will ding its annual earnings before interest and taxes by between $100 million and $300 million. The carrier lowered its full-year EBIT outlook to $500 million, down from a prior range of $600 million to $800 million.

According to Southwest’s filing, bookings have returned to previous expectations following the end of the shutdown. Its shares dipped down about 1% in premarket trading.

The carrier joins Delta Air Lines in assigning a cost to the government closure. Earlier this week, Delta said the shutdown would cost it $200 million in the fourth quarter.

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