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Wall Street is talking a lot more about stablecoins

The steady creep of crypto closer to the traditional financial sector is a key theme of the markets this year.

Matt Phillips

Stablecoins — crypto assets typically pegged to the US dollar and supposedly backed by ample, easy to sell, super safe securities like US Treasurys — are thought to be the most boring corner of the crypto market. By design, they don’t offer the wild, potentially lucrative swings that have enticed crypto traders in recent years.

But try telling that to investors of Circle, the issuer of the second-largest stablecoin, USDC. Since the company started trading publicly in early June, it’s up over 600%. Coinbase, which co-launched USDC with Circle through the Centre Consortium and is a major player in increasing its adoption, is up more than 50% this year and just touched a new high.

In part, that’s because stablecoins’ status as the seemingly safest part of the crypto-verse has put the dollar substitutes at the bleeding edge of a key theme powering market momentum this year: steadily increasing connections between crypto and the traditional, regulated US financial system.

That fusion has gathered pace since President Trump’s second administration began. The White House has publicly embraced crypto and pushed to ease regulations on an industry that — as should be noted — has directly and personally enriched the sitting president and his family. (One estimate said that for the year through April, the Trump family and its business partners had made some $350 million in fees on its trump coin.)

But pro-crypto pressure is also coming from the legislative branch, where crypto has emerged as a key source of political donations over the last couple years. The bipartisan GENIUS Act — which would set the rules of the road for stablecoins — passed the Senate in June. And while it still faces hurdles in the House, the writing seems to be on the wall that stablecoins, in some incarnation, will be connected to the US banking system in the not too distant future.

Case in point: stablecoin-related chatter from S&P 500 companies is picking up steam as we head into the heart of earnings season, especially from the big Wall Street banks that reported this week.

Even before that, the appearance of the term in conference call transcripts surged to a new high in June, FactSet data shows, which doesn’t even count this week’s comments from the big US banks. At last glance, financial titans talking stablecoins included Mastercard, BlackRock, Bank of New York Mellon, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs.

For the record, many of the bankers have merely acknowledged developments on the stablecoin regulation front, telling analysts that they’re “following closely” or some such pabulum.

But the uptick in chatter is often triggered by questions from analysts, who are likely interested to know if some of the stablecoin fairy dust that supercharged Circle shares could rub off on the old-school banks they cover. That suggests there’s a lot more stablecoin talk to come.

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Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month

Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.

The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

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Why software shares are withstanding the war jitters

The outbreak of the war in Iran has clearly rattled investors and created a few clear winners — mostly energy stocks — and losers — consumer staples, airlines, and, well, more or else everything else.

But there is one interesting outlier to that Manichaean market dynamic.

Software shares — often the same companies that the market was giving up for dead just a few weeks ago due to overexpectations of an AI-driven disruption — have been holding up remarkably well.

These companies, including Intuit, ServiceNow, Datadog, Snowflake, IBM, Workday, and Oracle, have actually had a pretty decent run since the war started with a combined US-Israeli attack on Iran last weekend.

A new note from RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria suggests this isn’t just a fluke. Looking at the performance of software stocks during periods of geopolitical stress and market volatility over the last 10 and 25 years, his team found that software shares appear fairly well insulated when these broader shocks hit. RBC wrote:

“The defensive nature of SaaS models and the mission-critical nature of many core software systems at the enterprise level (e.g., in the absence of mass layoffs that may create seat-based headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and/or market volatility typically will not cause an enterprise CIO to consider ripping out their ERP, CRM, Cyber systems, etc.”

I briefly got Jaluria on the phone yesterday, and he explained a bit more about why he thinks investors might see software as a decent place to hide out from the current chaos.

“With everything in the Middle East, you have to think about not just oil and gas input prices but also supply chains,” he said. “With software, you’re not really thinking about that.”

In other words, there is no equivalent of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that software investors have to worry about.

Others suggested that the near-term profitability of these giant software companies — aside from concerns about potential long-term disruption from AI — may look different in the face of the economic uncertainty that seems to be growing with the war, especially after a sell-off that has left them relatively attractively valued.

Mark Moerdler, who covers software stocks for Bernstein Research, says that while the AI worries are clearly real, software companies continue to be highly productive cash cows.

“Everyone is afraid that AI is a massive disruptor, and all these articles you read talk about AI as massive disruptor or the world is ending or whatever,” he said. “You don’t see it in the fundamental numbers of the companies I cover. They are delivering GAAP profits, free cash flow, and they’re good investment ideas.”

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