White House Washington DC Presidential Election

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Here’s how stocks see the presidential race

It’s been a tumultuous election season and tonight’s debate could shake up the race — and the markets.

9/10/24 10:54AM

The stock market is almost dead flat early Tuesday, ahead of the tonight’s presidential debate between Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate former President Donald Trump.

Investors good have reason to sit on their hands for the moment and see how it plays out. It’s been a tumultuous election season that has involved the cataclysmic debate performance of President Biden on June 27, the attempted assassination of Trump on July 13, and Biden’s decision to drop out of the race on July 21.

Polling and prediction markets both have the election as a dead heat, with many seeing tonight’s debate — set for 9 p.m. ET in Philadelphia — as perhaps one of the few remaining events before November that could potentially shake up a race that seems to be solidifying.

Gauging the state of the race by the looking at the stock market is always a fraught exercise, given the plethora of company specific and economy-wide elements that can impact share prices.

But Goldman Sachs thematic baskets of stocks that stand to benefit from either GOP or Democratic policies seem to confirm the topsy-turvy nature of the race since the Biden-Trump debate.

The GOP basket — weighted toward companies such as steel firms that would benefit from steep tariffs Trump has promised — opened up a lead in the aftermath of the first debate and the assassination attempt of Trump.

But that lead collapsed once Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, with the Democratic policy basket — weighted toward solar firms and home builders, among others — taking the lead.

Both baskets took a bath with the steep 10% sell-off that hit the market in early August. But the Democratic convention in Chicago seemed to give the Democratic basket a lift by a good four percentage points or so.

Whether that changes drastically in the aftermath of tonight’s debate could shed a bit of light of who won, at least in the eyes of traders.

Max Knoblauch2/6/26

Looking into its Warner Bros. acquisition, the DOJ probes Netflix for anticompetitive tactics

As the Department of Justice probes Netflix’s proposed $83 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, it has reportedly subpoenaed at least one other entertainment company to investigate whether the streamer has taken part in anticompetitive behavior.

Netflix said the DOJ is conducting a standard review and it expects its acquisition to be approved.

Per Wall Street Journal reporting, the DOJ is also seeking out information on how Paramount’s proposed acquisition could harm competition in the entertainment industry.

Netflix has argued that its acquisition of WBD would not be anticompetitive, as there is an 80% overlap in Netflix and HBO Max subscribers. The company has said it competes not just with streaming services but also with broader content platforms like YouTube and TikTok for attention. Netflix booked $45.2 billion in revenue in 2025, compared to YouTube’s $60 billion.

The streamer has repeatedly said it will stick to a 45-day theatrical release window for Warner Bros. films. Movie theater trade groups have pointed out that after theatrical release, many films move to premium video on-demand (PVOD), where they can be digitally rented or purchased for several more weeks or months before moving to streaming (subscription video on-demand, or SVOD). According to Cinema United, the average SVOD window for major theatrical films is 102 days, significantly longer than the potential 45-day window for Netflix.

Exclusive | Justice Department Casts Wide Net on Netflix’s Business Practices in Merger Probe

Per Wall Street Journal reporting, the DOJ is also seeking out information on how Paramount’s proposed acquisition could harm competition in the entertainment industry.

Jon Keegan2/2/26

Report: Meta pouring $65 million into PACs backing pro-AI state candidates

With a pro-tech, pro-AI administration in Washington, DC, Meta has decided the next battlegrounds that it needs to flood with cash are in individual states.

Starting in Meta’s home state of California, the tech giant is pledging $65 million to a pair of super PACs that it created to fund pro-tech and pro-AI candidates at the state level, according to a report from Politico.

Meta has funded the American Technology Excellence Project ($45 million) and Mobilizing Economic Transformation Across (META) California ($20 million) to push back on what it sees as burdensome AI regulations coming from state legislatures.

The META California PAC will support tech-friendly candidates regardless of party.

Meta drops $65 million into super PACs to boost tech-friendly state candidates

The META California PAC will support tech-friendly candidates regardless of party.

When is TrumpRx launching?

Not on schedule, for one thing.

J. Edward Moreno1/29/26

Jon Keegan1/20/26

FTC will appeal Meta antitrust case

Only a few months after successfully defending itself from an FTC antitrust lawsuit, Meta may be heading back to court. Today, the FTC announced that it would appeal the decision, reopening a yearslong suit.

The FTC called Meta’s acquisition of Instagram and WhatsApp an illegal monopoly. The judge in the case found that in the years since the suit was first brought, the competitive landscape had changed dramatically, with Meta facing fierce competition from TikTok.

FTC will appeal ruling in Meta antitrust case over Instagram, WhatsApp deals

Max Knoblauch1/20/26

Netflix goes all-cash in bid for Warner Bros., boosting its odds

Netflix on Tuesday applied more pressure to Paramount Skydance in the ongoing bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery, amending its offer to an all-cash proposal.

Netflix shares ticked up in premarket trading, while Paramount and Warner Bros. were down less than 1%.

The move, which was expected, does not increase the value of Netflix’s $82.7 billion offer for WBD. Netflix said shareholders will be able to vote on the deal in April.

In a Tuesday filing, Warner Bros. said that it values Discovery Global, the spin-off of its cable assets, at between $1.33 and $6.86 per share. Earlier this month, Paramount said it valued the cable TV business at $0 per share.

With Tuesday’s update, event contracts have swung even further in Netflix’s favor, with Paramount’s odds to end up in control of Warner Bros. falling to 14%. That’s below the odds for “none.”

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Netflix Sweetens Warner Bros. Terms to All Cash in Bidding War