The Senate just advanced a deal that could end the government shutdown
Prediction markets have done a U-turn as Washington looks to end the longest government shutdown in US history.
The longest government shutdown in US history — so far lasting a full 40 days since funding authorization expired on October 1 — might soon come to an end.
On Sunday evening, the Senate announced the advancement of a tentative compromise bill, following a procedural vote that saw a group of Democrats cross party lines to win by a 60-40 margin, reaching exactly the minimum number of votes needed to overcome the filibuster.
While this deal marks the first step in finally reopening the government — and keeping it funded until the end of January — there are several more hurdles it needs to clear before we get back to business as usual, including being passed by the Senate and signed off by the House of Representatives.
Still, that hasn’t stopped prediction market traders from quickly reacting to the news.
Having grown increasingly pessimistic over the last month, traders on the “When will the Government shutdown end?” contract offered by Polymarket piled heavily into positions that pay out if the shutdown ends earlier.
Indeed, in aggregate, Polymarket data reveals that traders are pricing in the chance of the shutdown ending between November 12 and 15 at 87% as of 5 a.m. ET on Monday, up from ~30% at the end of last week. The implied odds of the shutdown continuing beyond November 16, meanwhile, have plummeted.
Fed, interrupted
As prediction markets reflect a newfound optimism that the federal closure could soon conclude, so too have Wall Street and global markets rallied on the news. Seemingly, the stock market and US citizens alike are eagerly awaiting a reopening: a YouGov poll published Friday found that 36% of Americans now say the federal government shutdown is affecting them a great deal or somewhat — up from 21% recorded a month ago.
