🚘 A different EVironment ⚡

Gas prices in the US have climbed $0.60 in less than two weeks because of the war with Iran. Prediction markets are pricing in an implied 62% chance* that the price of gas exceeds $4 by the end of the month. That has EVs once again turning car shoppers’ heads, though the EV landscape is very different than it was the last time oil prices spiked.

• A person familiar with car sales across the US told Sherwood News that they’ve seen EV order growth significantly outpacing the non-EV baseline, as consumers’ EV interest has risen over the past several days.

• A spokesperson for auto retailer CarMax told Sherwood that the company has recently observed a “statistically significant lift in shoppers searching for EVs, Hybrids, and Plug-In Hybrids.”

• “From Feb 1st - March 1st (inclusive), compared to March 2nd to March 11th (inclusive), we saw a 6.4% lift in page views for these vehicles,” the spokesperson said.

• The category garnered 22.4% of all vehicle research activity on Edmunds in the week beginning March 2, up from 20.7% the week prior. 

• The last time oil prices were this high — as Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 — the EV market was in a very different position. At the time, former President Biden had recently signed an executive order seeking to ensure half of all vehicles sold in the US by 2030 were electric. 

EVs saw elevated interest from rising gas prices then, with some even selling on the secondary market for more than retail consumers on waitlists had bought them for.

Today, the EV market has matured and gone through a pullback. The Trump administration eliminated the tax credit and revoked the 50% EV sales target. But the sheer number of EVs available has also grown immensely in that time, driving growth in used EV sales.

The Takeaway

At those used prices, EVs may be of more interest to cost-weary shoppers. The trend has already begun: in January, used EV sales grew 21% from a year earlier, while new EV sales fell 30%, Cox data shows. Sales could continue to swing toward cheaper used EVs if gas prices remain elevated. If prices remain elevated in the long term, however, that story could change.

“While higher gas prices do tend to refocus shoppers on fuel economy, the near‑term impact is more likely to show up in household behavior than ​in vehicle purchase behavior,” said Stephanie Valdez-Streaty, Cox Automotive’s director of industry insights. “To materially change buying behavior and drive a trend toward smaller, more efficient vehicles, consumers would need to believe gas prices will remain elevated for years, not just months.”

Read more

*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.

• Markets are pricing in a longer oil supply crunch: While US leadership is trying to give the impression that the spike in oil prices won’t last long or be too severe, oil markets suggest the opposite. Third-month Brent futures are outperforming front-month futures, indicating that traders expect higher prices to persist. These two charts show the unprecedented pricing of not-so-short-term oil risk.  

• The S&P 500’s internals are awful... while it’s still less than 5% from its record closing high: The McClellan Oscillator, which is a gauge of whether the components of an index or exchange are showing improving or worsening momentum, for the S&P 500 sank to -47 last week, which is even worse than when stocks nearly entered a bear market in April 2025. But historically, when the McClellan Oscillator has been this bad or worse while the index was still within 5% of its closing peak, the S&P 500’s forward returns have generally been positive.

On Thursday, Google announced that it would be integrating Gemini into Google Maps. As the gap between Google Maps and Apple Maps narrows, Alphabet is clearly hoping Gemini can provide the answers moving forward: the new “Ask Maps” feature will allow users to ask more sophisticated questions in the Google Maps app, providing chill-sounding use cases like, “My friends are coming from Midtown East to meet me after work. Any spots with a cozy aesthetic and a table for 4 at 7 tonight?”

Google Maps vs. Apple Maps

For more March Madness coverage, subscribe to Scoreboard, our sports newsletter.

• 🏀 NCAAM: Following Selection Sunday, we have a great look at the strongest contenders among the men’s March Madness tournament, with Michigan (19%), Duke (19%), and Florida (17%) all strong contenders to seize their One Shining Moment.  

• 🏀 March Madness: What is March Madness if not a time for upsets and surprises? The probability that all four No. 1 seeds make the semifinals is lower than you may think, and the chances of a breakout winner from the lower seedings is downright solid; the probability that one of the No. 15 or a No. 16 seeds wins their game over their rival No. 2 and No. 1 seeds is hovering around a solid 25%, according to prediction markets.

• 🏀 NCAAW: Over in the women’s college basketball tournament, the question is less, “Which of these 68 teams will win?” and more, “Can anyone take down the Huskies?” as UConn is a breathtaking 68% favorite to win, traders on Kalshi are pricing. In second place is UCLA with a 16% chance, leaving the other 66 teams with whatever’s left, probabilistically.