👀 All eyes on Nvidia

This afternoon, we’ll get Nvidia earnings, and it comes at a tenuous time for the company and the AI trade as a whole.

Fund managers think companies (read: hyperscalers) are investing too much. The good news about demand is known: Nvidia effectively preannounced its revenue outlook when CEO Jensen Huang touted more than $500 billion in orders for its flagship chips through calendar year 2026. And shares recently traded near the bottom of the $180 to $210 range they’ve been oscillating around since the end of September.

• Analysts are expecting the company to deliver $55.2 billion in sales in its fiscal Q3 2026, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.26. 

• That roughly $8.4 billion in revenue growth from Q2 to Q3 would be more than the total sales generated by over 370 S&P 500 companies in their most recent quarter.

• One oft overlooked aspect of the AI boom is that it came out of nowhere, at a time when there was excess capacity in semiconductor production. That’s no longer the case.

• If Nvidia’s GPUs are the brains of AI, you still need a host of other chips to serve as the supporting elements of the nervous system. On that note, high-bandwidth memory prices have been surging as supply remains ultra-tight.

When it comes to how markets will interpret the results, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives takes an optimistic and straightforward view: the sheer size of the numbers put up by the chip designer will be too impressive to ignore.

“Datapoints from Nvidia this week will be important to convince ‘on the fence investors’ that this AI spending trend is an unparalleled moment in modern tech history and is NOT a bubble moment,” he wrote.

JPMorgan is also forecasting an earnings beat and upward move, and recommends a bull call spread ahead of the report.

The Takeaway

The most valuable company in the world has earned that moniker despite, rather than because of, how investors have reacted to its quarterly reports as of late. Just once over its past five reporting periods has the chip designer gained in the week following earnings. This time, there should be no questions about the appetite for Nvidia’s AI chips. What’s in doubt is how much supply chain snarls might impact its ability to meet that colossal demand, whether margins might face some pressure along the way, and if competition will eat away at its dominant market position over time.

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Among the hyperscalers, yesterday was the best of times and the worst of times. First up, let’s talk about Google’s new Gemini release. 

• Google released Gemini 3, a major update to its flagship AI model. The new model comes with a number of new features that aim to leap ahead of competitors OpenAI and Anthropic. 

• The release also features significant improvements to reasoning, agentic tasks, and “vibe coding.” Google says when using Gemini 3, “you’ll notice the responses are more helpful, better formatted and more concise.”

• Another experiment is Gemini Agent, which can handle complex, multistep tasks across Google’s apps all within Gemini.

Meanwhile, things were considerably rougher for Microsoft and Amazon, which dropped 2.7% and 4.4%, respectively. 

• Rothschild & Co Redburn analyst Alexander Haissl downgraded both companies Tuesday to “neutral” from “buy,” breaking with many of his peers. 

• The industry’s narrative that generative AI is akin to the early cloud, he wrote, is “increasingly misplaced,” saying that the underlying economics for GenAI are “far weaker than assumed.”

• Now, it’s not the end of the world: over 90% of the stocks’ analysts have buy-equivalent recommendations for them, according to Bloomberg.

The Takeaway

Google hopes to leverage its massive reach so Gemini becomes the AI chatbot of choice. The company posted results that show Gemini bested GPT-5.1 and Claude Sonnet 4.5 in many widely used benchmarks. Gemini 3 leapt to the top spot on the popular LMArena leaderboard. Still, that wasn’t enough to shake off an AI-related sell-off; investors continue to wonder when the hyperscalers’ intense spending on AI infrastructure will pay off.

Let’s see how everyone feels after tonight’s earnings. 

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Bitcoin’s having its worst month since 2022 

“Painvember,” as they’re calling it on social media, is real. Bitcoin slid below $90,000 for the first time since April, extending a monthlong rout that has now erased all of its 2025 gains. But it’s not just bitcoin that’s suffering: since the OG crypto hit its all-time high on October 6, the overall crypto market has lost over $1 trillion in market capitalization. 

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• 🏒 NHL: Just a few weeks into the season and there are already some favorites to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup this year. The perennial contenders from Colorado are considered the favorite, with the Avalanche climbing from as low as a 3% chance of winning preseason to on the order of 18% lately. 

• 💃 Miss Universe: This Friday is the annual Miss Universe competition, and the market is pricing in a big advantage for Fátima Bosch of Mexico with approximately a one in five chance of winning the pageant, though given the over 100 contenders, it’s hard to hammer out a specific probability. Other strong contenders include Praveenar Singh of Thailand and Ahtisa Manalo of the Philippines.  

• 🚘 Self-Driving: Waymo announced yesterday that its autonomous robotaxi service will be available to the public in five new cities — Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando — beginning next year. Waymo’s service is currently operating in five markets — the Bay Area, Austin, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Atlanta — with a total of 12 others in the pipeline for expansion, though the market is pricing in three cities available in the Waymo One app by the end of this year.

*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.

• Analyst: how to know when to sell AI stocks

• Meta wins in FTC antitrust trial, as the time it took to resolve the long case worked in its favor

• Apple took 25% of the Chinese smartphone market in October, up from 19% last year, on strong iPhone 17 sales

• Paramount Skydance is reportedly preparing a $71 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery with help from Arab sovereign wealth funds