🤑 AMD’s $300 million guarante

Advance Micro Devices will “effectively guarantee” a $300 million loan to data center company Crusoe from Goldman Sachs, according to The Information. Crusoe is taking out a loan to purchase AMD’s chips, and the chips that it’s purchasing are being used as collateral for that loan.

• You’d be forgiven for thinking that this sounds an awful lot like a very common form of borrowing done by American families: borrowing money to buy a house, and having the home be collateral for the mortgage.

• One big difference, of course, is that your home is expected to appreciate in value, while AI chips are expected to depreciate in value as they’re used.

• Another difference is that AMD, per the report, has agreed to rent these chips from Crusoe if it can’t find customers for this compute, which helped reduce the interest rate Crusoe will pay on this loan.

• Similarly, in September, Nvidia agreed to buy any of CoreWeave’s unused cloud computing capacity through April 13, 2032, for $6.3 billion.

Everyone wants AI chips. AMD sells AI chips. And yet, in both this deal and the most high-profile one we know about (AMD’s pact with OpenAI), the chip designer seems like it has to go the extra mile to get companies to use its AI chips. As part of the OpenAI agreement, AMD issued warrants that enable the ChatGPT developer to receive 160 million shares, or about 10% of the company, if certain operational and stock price targets are hit over time.

The Takeaway

Rather than get overly hung up on “circular financing” elements, we’d probably frame the issue here like this: why is it so tough to get buyers on normal terms? This either says something negative about the financing environment for AI startups or the perception of AMD’s AI chips.

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All eyes were on Walmart before the market opened Thursday, awaiting the company’s first earnings report under CEO John Furner, a company veteran who assumed the role on February 1. 

Expectations were high. The retail giant, which is up more than 13% since the start of the year, recently became the third non-tech company to hit a $1 trillion valuation.

• The results for the quarter ended January 31 were above expectations, but then the other shoe dropped: full-year guidance was weaker than analysts had expected.

• In 2025, the retailer’s soft full-year guidance marked a peak for the S&P 500 and kicked off a momentum stock meltdown.

• This time, while Walmart did dip on the report, the market seemed to take it in stride, perhaps reassured by its CFO’s statement to analysts that “our goal is to outperform this guidance, but we believe it’s prudent to start the year with a level of conservatism given the backdrop is still somewhat unstable.” 

• DA Davidson analyst Michael Baker observed that Walmart has had a habit of sandbagging its guidance, which increases management’s odds of ultimately exceeding that outlook. He added, “It’s not surprising that Walmart sets a lower bar for a new CEO.”

The other big takeaway from earnings was that Walmart reported revenue of $713.2 billion for the full year, just below Amazon’s $716.9 billion, making it the first time the Bentonville-based retailer has trailed its online-native rival on annual sales.

The Takeaway

The shuffle of Walmart vs. Amazon for top dog wasn’t a surprise, but it still carries symbolic weight, as the two have long battled to be crowned the king of retail. Amazon’s revenue sources are much more varied, though, with not just retail but cloud computing, AWS, subscription services, advertising, and more. Another big difference that will continue to divide the two: the pair’s very different investments and approach to AI.

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Following their second-ever Super Bowl win, the Seattle Seahawks are riding high and could fetch a record-high price after the estate of Paul G. Allen officially confirmed it’s time to pass the ball to a new owner. Given that Forbes was valuing the team at $6.7 billion before the win, it’s almost a lock that the final deal will make history. 

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• 🏒 Hockey: Four games remain in the men’s hockey event at the Olympics, with the semifinals (US vs. Slovakia and Canada vs. Finland) coming up today, all leading toward the medal events on Sunday. Just as it was in that sudden death, overtime, incredibly close women’s game Thursday, the US and Canada are considered the contenders to beat, with the market* pricing Canada with a 49% chance of winning and the US with a 46% chance, Slovakia and Finland being seen as underdogs. 

• 🎬 Oscars: This Sunday is the BAFTA Awards, the nominations of which shook up the Oscars race and which will have massive implications for the Academy Awards. Heading into the BAFTAs, “One Battle After Another” is a 74% favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars, Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”) is the 78% favorite to win Best Actor, and Jessie Buckley is an 89% favorite to win Best Actress, but wins for “Sinners” (15%), Leonardo DiCaprio (10%), or Rose Byrne (8%) in London could easily shake up those races. 

• 🏅 Olympics: Sunday will see the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics come to a close. As it stands, perennial winter powerhouse Norway is a shoo-in for most medals overall and most golds. The United States has the edge when it comes to most silver medals, with a 96% chance, and in a bit of a surprise, host country Italy has the best shot (77%) of finishing with the most bronze medals, up from 9% heading into the Games. 

*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.

• December PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge 

• Earnings expected from AngloGold Ashanti