Hey Snackers,
America’s marriage rate has been dropping for years, and don’t expect Gen Z to reverse that trend. Only 67% of 12th graders in 2023 said they were likely to get married one day, compared with the 80% reported three decades before. Also dropping? Divorces: the number of divorces per 1,000 married women plummeted to just 14.4% in 2023, down from its 1980 peak.
The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all fell sharply on Monday as a sell-off in tech, finance, and energy drove stocks lower, but the losses were broad, with every sector ETF in the red except for utilities. Traders are bracing themselves for Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, which will offer key insights into the viability of the AI trade, and the September jobs report, which will be released on Thursday.
Assets tied to the riskiest parts of the market and the economy are getting dumped in unison
If you’re looking for things to worry about, the combination of risk appetite souring on thematic, volatile stocks as well as crypto at the same time as companies that are in the business of giving money to less creditworthy companies should probably be near the top of the list.
In recent weeks, both the quantum computing space and smaller AI-linked companies have seen significant selling pressure, as has bitcoin. Given that crypto is a place with limited fundamentals to draw on, it’s a very good gauge of the ebbs and flows in risk appetite.
“The pockets of momentum chasing which had surged in September and early October, first stumbled on the US-China trade escalation, then continued bleeding and have now been completely unwound, with the selloff one of the swiftest on record,” Deutsche Bank strategist Parag Thatte wrote.
This sell-off is occurring in tandem with a slump in business development corporations — that is, firms in the private credit business that lend to small or midsize US companies. This space has been rocked by high-profile busts at Tricolor and First Brands.
On Monday, Blue Owl came under acute pressure when the Financial Times reported that it has blocked redemptions in one of its earliest private credit funds as it prepares to merge with another of its vehicles, and investors could be facing losses of about 20%. In the stock market, traders of Blue Owl are hooting first and asking questions later, pushing shares down to a fresh 52-week low on Monday.
The Takeaway
The 21-day correlation between the daily percent change in the iShares Bitcoin Trust and VanEck BDC Income ETF has exploded higher, reaching levels not seen since the market’s nosedive and subsequent rebound as onerous tariffs were imposed and then watered down in the second quarter of 2025.
Probably nothing a good Nvidia earnings report couldn’t get us to forget about, though.
CME Group helps you manage crypto with confidence.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) futures markets have grown rapidly since trading began in 2020 and 2022, respectively. Acceptance by both institutional and retail investors is extending their reach — and the data shows that both active trading (daily volume) and held positions (open interest) are trending upwards.
CME Group expands your choices for managing cryptocurrency exposure with regulated futures and options based on bitcoin and ether — plus recently launched products for Solana and XRP. The CME Group marketplace empowers you to manage cryptocurrency exposure with confidence, offering unique capital efficiency and the ability to go long and short in crypto trading.1
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1 Shorting increases the risk of investing. With short sales, the potential for loss is unlimited.
2 Margin comes with increased risks. Losses as well as gains will be magnified with the greater amount borrowed.
Elon Musk runs an AI startup — now, so does Jeff Bezos, as he launches Project Prometheus
Jeff Bezos, the third-richest man in the world and the founder of Amazon, a company increasingly focused on AI, has created a new AI startup of which he will be co-CEO, The New York Times reports. The new venture, Project Prometheus, aims to use AI to engineer and manufacture automobiles and spacecraft. It also sounds conspicuously like Elon Musk’s AI startup, xAI.
Musk, the richest man in the world and the CEO of Tesla, a company increasingly focused on AI, also leads his AI startup and is progressively working on integrating its technology into his vehicle and space companies.
Musk’s space company is SpaceX, while Bezos’ is called Blue Origin.
Musk owns social media company X, formerly Twitter, which is now part of xAI. Bezos owns media company The Washington Post.
Bezos also has invested in an EV company, Slate Auto, which some see as a “Tesla killer.” Got it?
In other words, Bezos and Musk remain engaged in a billionaire version of “keeping up with the Joneses.”
The Takeaway
And, as if the competition was not obvious enough, consider this nugget: Musk has told his teams working on the Optimus robot that he wants it to be able to get in and out of the company’s Cybercab to make deliveries, according to a report by The Information. Amazon, of course, has also been amping up its use of robots, eventually planning to have them deliver its e-commerce packages. The Optimus and Cybercab are supposed to go into production next year, so now it seems their giant public tech companies are slated to go head to head.
The Best Thing We Read Today
Earnings season has been phenomenal, and it’s done nothing for the average stock
We’re almost out of what we’d say so far was a stellar quarterly reporting season. But despite 73.5% of companies tracked by Bespoke Investment Group beating on earnings per share, the analysts noted that earnings reactions from traders have “been a completely different story.”
Snacks Shots
🏈 NFL: The Kansas City Chiefs’ defeat at the hands of the Denver Broncos has prompted some to wonder if the NFL dynasty might even miss the playoffs this year. The loss certainly did a number on the market’s perception of their postseason potential: the implied probability* that the Chiefs would be AFC champions had hovered at around 24% on Sunday before sharply dropping to about 15% by that evening, and their once dominant chance of winning the AFC West has now fallen to just 12%, behind both the ascendant Broncos and even the Chargers.
🎮 The Game Awards: Nominations dropped for Game of the Year at The Game Awards, and “Clair Obscur: Expedition 33” remains a strong favorite to win the top prize according to the markets, which give it a 86% chance of victory. Other nominees include “Hollow Knight: Silksong” (6% chance), “Hades II” (4% chance), “Kingdom Come: Deliverance II” (3% chance), “Death Stranding 2: On The Beach” (2% chance), and “Donkey Kong Bananza” (2% chance).
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.
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Access to Pre-IPO Offerings Starts Here
Kevin O’Leary is a paid spokesperson for StartEngine. See his 17(b) disclosure, here.
The private markets aren’t just for VCs anymore.
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What Else We're Snackin'
Peter Thiel’s hedge fund offloaded its entire position in Nvidia and also sold a large portion of its stake in Tesla
Crypto is experiencing what some are calling “Painvember,” with bitcoin suffering alongside ethereum. Meanwhile, solana’s price has fallen, but it has one bright spot
Novo Nordisk dropped the price for its introductory GLP-1 doses, undercutting its competitors
Ford, like Hyundai already does, has partnered with Amazon to sell its used vehicles online
Snack Fact Of The Day
Today's Earnings
Earnings expected from Home Depot and Baidu
3 Investing in futures and options carries unique risks. Before engaging in any transactions in CME Group marketplace, carefully review the disclosures and disclaimers contained at https://www.cmegroup.com/disclaimer.html
Investing in digital assets involves significant risks due to their extreme price volatility and the potential for loss, theft, or compromise of private keys. The value of the shares is closely tied to acceptance, industry developments, and governance changes, making them susceptible to market sentiment. Digital assets represent a new and rapidly evolving industry. Digital assets are not suitable for an investor that cannot afford the loss of the entire investment.
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Rather, when you invest through StartEngine Private, you are buying an interest in a separate Series of StartEngine Private LLC, not stock directly in the companies listed. The Series may hold shares directly or through a special-purpose vehicle (SPV). Your interests may differ from the companies’ stock in both rights and value, and there may not be a one-to-one economic parity between the value of Series interests and the underlying shares. The Series also bears its own costs (such as transaction and administrative expenses), which may reduce investor returns.
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